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CVX

ChevronC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a stronger operating and cash-flow profile: production scaled after Hess, cost and synergy targets were achieved early, refinery throughput was record-setting, and the Microsoft power agreement adds a potential long-duration growth avenue. Guyana provides a longer-term production-growth option.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
A dated July 31 post-earnings closing-price reaction was not independently verified; the latest packet anchor is $190.40 on August 4.
Momentum
67
Value
55
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $200.00 · Bull $230.00 · Bear $160.00Analysis 2026-08-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $222.04
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d +8.4
Value55 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +6.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A dated July 31 post-earnings closing-price reaction was not independently verified; the latest packet anchor is $190.40 on August 4.
  • • China demand and broader global energy demand remain uncertain.
  • • The earnings surge is highly commodity- and disruption-sensitive, while political pressure over fuel prices and uncertainty around China could reduce the benefit.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-31

Q2 2026 earnings beat with record operating execution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
67
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.4
Δ21d
-4.8
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+4.5
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
-1.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 66.5 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 60.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$230.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$400.49B
Beta
0.69
Shares Out
1.98B
P/E (TTM)
23.1
P/S (TTM)
1.76
P/FCF (TTM)
103.42
Rev YoY
+51.1%
EPS YoY
+323.3%
Gross Margin
+18.5%
Op Margin
+13.3%
Net Debt
$40.27B
Current Ratio
1.25
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data