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2026-10-23
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Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-23

What to Expect From CVS Health's Next Quarterly Earnings Report

Barchart
With a market cap of $120.8 billion, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) delivers a wide range of services through its Health Care Benefits, Health Services, and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segments. It provides insurance products, pharmacy benefit management, and retail pharmacy services to individuals, employers, and government programs. The Woonsocket, Rhode Island-based company is slated to announce its fiscal Q3 2026 results before the market opens on Wednesday, Nov. 4. Ahead of the event, analysts expect CVS to report an adjusted EPS of $1.62, up 1.3% from $1.60 in the year-ago quarter. It has surpassed Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarterly reports. - Broadcom's Hock Tan Says AI's Next Bottleneck Isn't Chips, Power, or Memory. It's Not a Tech Problem at All. - Google Hits Major Quantum Breakthrough. This Could Be a Game-Changer for GOOGL Stock. - 63 Reasons Point to CoreWeave's Default. Yet Goldman Sachs Upgraded It to a 'Buy' for 1 Key Reason. - Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. For fiscal 2026, analysts predict CVS Health to post adjusted EPS of $8.02, a 18.8% increase from $6.75 in fiscal 2025. Shares of CVS Health have risen 15.9% over the past 52 weeks, outpacing both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 13.6% gain. However, the stock has lagged behind the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLV) 22.9% return over the same period. Despite reporting better-than-expected Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.58, CVS Health shares tumbled 5.1% on Aug. 5. The company raised its 2026 EPS forecast by $0.60 at both ends to $7.90 - $8.10, but projected only single-digit earnings growth in the second half, while its initial 2027 outlook of at least $8.44 per share offered little upside beyond existing expectations. Additional concerns included weaker expected client retention and regulatory pressure on its Caremark pharmacy benefit management business, alongside uncertainty over rising medical costs and macroeconomic conditions. Analysts' consensus rating on CVS stock is bullish, with an overall "Strong Buy" rating. Among 24 analysts covering the stock, 20 recommend a "Strong Buy," two have a "Moderate Buy" rating, and two give a "Hold" rating. The average analyst price target is $113.46, indicating a potential upside of…Read full document

With a market cap of $120.8 billion, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) delivers a wide range of services through its Health Care Benefits, Health Services, and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segments. It provides insurance products, pharmacy benefit management, and retail pharmacy services to individuals, employers, and government programs. The Woonsocket, Rhode Island-based company is slated to announce its fiscal Q3 2026 results before the market opens on Wednesday, Nov. 4. Ahead of the event, analysts expect CVS to report an adjusted EPS of $1.62, up 1.3% from $1.60 in the year-ago quarter. It has surpassed Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarterly reports. - Broadcom's Hock Tan Says AI's Next Bottleneck Isn't Chips, Power, or Memory. It's Not a Tech Problem at All. - Google Hits Major Quantum Breakthrough. This Could Be a Game-Changer for GOOGL Stock. - 63 Reasons Point to CoreWeave's Default. Yet Goldman Sachs Upgraded It to a 'Buy' for 1 Key Reason. - Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. For fiscal 2026, analysts predict CVS Health to post adjusted EPS of $8.02, a 18.8% increase from $6.75 in fiscal 2025. Shares of CVS Health have risen 15.9% over the past 52 weeks, outpacing both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 13.6% gain. However, the stock has lagged behind the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLV) 22.9% return over the same period. Despite reporting better-than-expected Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.58, CVS Health shares tumbled 5.1% on Aug. 5. The company raised its 2026 EPS forecast by $0.60 at both ends to $7.90 - $8.10, but projected only single-digit earnings growth in the second half, while its initial 2027 outlook of at least $8.44 per share offered little upside beyond existing expectations. Additional concerns included weaker expected client retention and regulatory pressure on its Caremark pharmacy benefit management business, alongside uncertainty over rising medical costs and macroeconomic conditions. Analysts' consensus rating on CVS stock is bullish, with an overall "Strong Buy" rating. Among 24 analysts covering the stock, 20 recommend a "Strong Buy," two have a "Moderate Buy" rating, and two give a "Hold" rating. The average analyst price target is $113.46, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current levels. On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-21

UnitedHealth (UNH): Does Optum Truly Diversify Its Earnings Risk?

Insider Monkey
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) produced $8.0 billion of second-quarter 2026 operating earnings, with Optum contributing $4.0 billion. Medical inflation and Medicare funding pressure reach both insurance and care delivery, however. The investment question is how much profit survives when treating patients becomes more expensive. A forward P/E around 17x looks fairly valued for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) if medical margins recover and Optum delivers dependable external profits. Forward P/E values forecast earnings; the approximately 24x trailing reading reflects past-year profits. The recovery outlook includes better pricing and fewer exceptional costs following 2025 restructuring and cyberattack expenses. Management's separate 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS midpoint of $19.75 implies roughly 21% annual growth. That measure excludes intangible amortization, portfolio effects, and restructuring and other specified items. CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is the closest structural peer because it combines insurance, pharmacy benefits, and care delivery. Its retail network adds store expenses and inventory needs. For UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), a richer valuation would require more resilient margins, stronger cash conversion, and manageable financial risk. Optum's technology earnings can support that case, but shared medical-cost exposure limits the diversification benefit. Also read: 10 Best Healthcare Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) combines several payment models. Optum Health earns administrative and treatment fees, but also accepts responsibility for patients' medical costs in exchange for fixed monthly payments. Higher utilization or provider prices can therefore hurt it alongside UnitedHealthcare. This resembles the distinction between service revenue and accepting underwriting exposure through existing customer relationships. The shared exposure has already mattered. In 2025, UnitedHealthcare operating earnings fell to $9.4 billion from $15.6 billion, while Optum Health's non-GAAP adjusted operating earnings fell to $2.3 billion from $7.9 billion, excluding specified portfolio, restructuring, and other effects. Medicare reimbursement pressure and rising treatment costs affected both. Better care coordination can lower total spending, but another subsidiary does not a…Read full document

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) produced $8.0 billion of second-quarter 2026 operating earnings, with Optum contributing $4.0 billion. Medical inflation and Medicare funding pressure reach both insurance and care delivery, however. The investment question is how much profit survives when treating patients becomes more expensive. A forward P/E around 17x looks fairly valued for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) if medical margins recover and Optum delivers dependable external profits. Forward P/E values forecast earnings; the approximately 24x trailing reading reflects past-year profits. The recovery outlook includes better pricing and fewer exceptional costs following 2025 restructuring and cyberattack expenses. Management's separate 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS midpoint of $19.75 implies roughly 21% annual growth. That measure excludes intangible amortization, portfolio effects, and restructuring and other specified items. CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is the closest structural peer because it combines insurance, pharmacy benefits, and care delivery. Its retail network adds store expenses and inventory needs. For UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), a richer valuation would require more resilient margins, stronger cash conversion, and manageable financial risk. Optum's technology earnings can support that case, but shared medical-cost exposure limits the diversification benefit. Also read: 10 Best Healthcare Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) combines several payment models. Optum Health earns administrative and treatment fees, but also accepts responsibility for patients' medical costs in exchange for fixed monthly payments. Higher utilization or provider prices can therefore hurt it alongside UnitedHealthcare. This resembles the distinction between service revenue and accepting underwriting exposure through existing customer relationships. The shared exposure has already mattered. In 2025, UnitedHealthcare operating earnings fell to $9.4 billion from $15.6 billion, while Optum Health's non-GAAP adjusted operating earnings fell to $2.3 billion from $7.9 billion, excluding specified portfolio, restructuring, and other effects. Medicare reimbursement pressure and rising treatment costs affected both. Better care coordination can lower total spending, but another subsidiary does not automatically provide a hedge. Optum Insight offers UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) a more distinct earnings source through software, analytics, and administrative services. Customers seeking lower processing costs create demand, although stressed hospitals and insurers can delay purchases. Its second-quarter profit improvement included contract timing. The segment now includes Optum Financial, adding interest income to the earnings mix. As with other software businesses, renewals and cash collection must support recurring revenue. Optum Rx adds pharmacy services and dispensing economics. It provided a partial offset in 2025, when non-GAAP adjusted operating earnings rose to $6.1 billion from $5.8 billion. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is moving toward transparent fees and rebate pass-through arrangements. Those contracts can reduce dependence on drug-price-linked compensation, but retaining customers at profitable fees remains essential. Prescription revenue includes drug costs, making revenue scale a poor substitute for operating profit. For UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), external demand provides the clearest test. Optum generated $25.4 billion from unaffiliated customers in the quarter, against $39.6 billion of affiliated revenue eliminated on consolidation. External revenue rose just 1.9%, and Optum Insight's reported external revenue declined 9%. Internal transactions can improve coordination, but ownership must add economic value beyond existing commercial relationships. The company's inclusion in 10 Best Bear Market Stocks to Invest In Right Now makes resilience particularly relevant. Genuine diversification should become visible through profitable external contracts and steadier consolidated margins when insurance claims rise. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) reported $11.1 billion of second-quarter 2026 operating cash flow, helped substantially by government-payment timing. Consolidated cash does not isolate Optum's contribution. Meanwhile, $860 million of favorable medical reserve development supported earnings, mostly relating to 2026 services. Sustainable recovery requires stronger operating performance beyond payment timing and reserve adjustments. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) can justify a 17x forward valuation through sustained medical-margin recovery, profitable external growth at Optum Insight and Optum Rx, and disciplined risk contracts at Optum Health. Cash generation must remain strong as payment timing normalizes. Those results would support fair value; segment size alone does not establish a diversification premium. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of UNH as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UNH and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: LifeMD (LFMD) Secures AT&T Partnership. Can Free Memberships Produce Paying Patients? and Roper (ROP): Are Buybacks a Better Use of Cash than More Acquisitions? This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-16

Danaher Gears Up to Post Q3 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?

Zacks
Danaher Corporation DHR is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $26.3 billion, which indicates an increase of 8.2% from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $1.94 per share, which has remained steady in the past 30 days. The estimate indicates an increase of 1.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The company's bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 5.7%. Let's see how things have shaped up for Danaher this earnings season. Strength in the bioprocessing business, driven by an increase in demand from large pharmaceutical and biopharma customers, is expected to have aided the Biotechnology segment. The segment's performance is also likely to have benefited from solid demand for equipment and consumables. For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment's total sales is pegged at $1.87 billion, indicating a 3.9% rise from the year-ago reported number. Stabilizing pricing and improving volumes, as procurement and reimbursement effects have begun to moderate, are expected to drive the Diagnostics segment's results. For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment's total sales is pegged at $2.83 billion, indicating a 15% rise from the year-ago reported number. Increase in demand across filtration, instruments and consumables businesses is likely to have boosted the performance of the Life Sciences segment in the quarter. For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment's total sales is pegged at $1.84 billion, indicating a 2.8% rise from the year-ago reported number. Danaher acquired Masimo in June 2026, which expanded the Diagnostics segment by adding sensor technology and AI-enabled monitoring. This is expected to have augmented the company's top line in the third quarter. However, the escalating costs and operating expenses, due to increasing input costs and product mix changes, are likely to have weighed on DHR's bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. The company has considerable exposure to overseas markets. Given its substantial international operations, foreign currency headwinds are likely to have marred its profitability. Danaher Corporation price-eps-surprise | Da…Read full document

Danaher Corporation DHR is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $26.3 billion, which indicates an increase of 8.2% from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $1.94 per share, which has remained steady in the past 30 days. The estimate indicates an increase of 1.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The company's bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 5.7%. Let's see how things have shaped up for Danaher this earnings season. Strength in the bioprocessing business, driven by an increase in demand from large pharmaceutical and biopharma customers, is expected to have aided the Biotechnology segment. The segment's performance is also likely to have benefited from solid demand for equipment and consumables. For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment's total sales is pegged at $1.87 billion, indicating a 3.9% rise from the year-ago reported number. Stabilizing pricing and improving volumes, as procurement and reimbursement effects have begun to moderate, are expected to drive the Diagnostics segment's results. For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment's total sales is pegged at $2.83 billion, indicating a 15% rise from the year-ago reported number. Increase in demand across filtration, instruments and consumables businesses is likely to have boosted the performance of the Life Sciences segment in the quarter. For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment's total sales is pegged at $1.84 billion, indicating a 2.8% rise from the year-ago reported number. Danaher acquired Masimo in June 2026, which expanded the Diagnostics segment by adding sensor technology and AI-enabled monitoring. This is expected to have augmented the company's top line in the third quarter. However, the escalating costs and operating expenses, due to increasing input costs and product mix changes, are likely to have weighed on DHR's bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. The company has considerable exposure to overseas markets. Given its substantial international operations, foreign currency headwinds are likely to have marred its profitability. Danaher Corporation price-eps-surprise | Danaher Corporation Quote Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for DHR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below. Earnings ESP: DHR has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.93 per share, which is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.92. You can uncover the best stocks before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Zacks Rank: DHR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Here are some other companies within the broader Medical sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle. Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. ACHC has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 4. Acadia Healthcare's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 47%. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AGIO has an Earnings ESP of +9.37% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5. Agios Pharmaceuticals' earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 7.4%. CVS Health Corporation CVS has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4. CVS Health's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 20.5%. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Danaher Corporation (DHR) : Free Stock Analysis Report CVS Health Corporation (CVS) : Free Stock Analysis Report Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) : Free Stock Analysis Report Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-15

Elevance Q3 Earnings Preview: Will Lower Premiums Weigh on Results?

Zacks
Elevance Health, Inc. ELV is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's earnings is currently pegged at $4.66 per shareon revenues of $48.60 billion. The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one downward revision and no upward revisions over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 22.7%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year decrease of 3%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Elevance's revenues is pegged at $195.4 billion, implying a decline of 1.1% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $27.22, indicating a 10.1% year-over-year decrease. Elevance's earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 16.6%. This is depicted in the figure below. Elevance Health, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Elevance Health, Inc. Quote Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here. ELV currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for product revenues indicates 5.3% growth from the year-ago period's $6.16 billion. However, the consensus estimate for premiums indicates a 4.9% decrease from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for Commercial Individual membership implies a 17.3% fall from a year ago, while our model estimate indicates an 18.1% decline. Also, declining memberships in Medicaid (-6.8%) are likely to have kept third-quarter performance in check. However, the consensus estimate for Commercial Fee-based memberships indicates 1.7% year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carelon brand's operating income for the third quarter indicates a 0.2% year-over-year decrease. The consensus estimate for the Health Benefits segment's operating income for the third quarter indicates a 23.9% year-over-year plunge, making an earnings beat uncertain. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the…Read full document

Elevance Health, Inc. ELV is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's earnings is currently pegged at $4.66 per shareon revenues of $48.60 billion. The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one downward revision and no upward revisions over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 22.7%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year decrease of 3%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Elevance's revenues is pegged at $195.4 billion, implying a decline of 1.1% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $27.22, indicating a 10.1% year-over-year decrease. Elevance's earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 16.6%. This is depicted in the figure below. Elevance Health, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Elevance Health, Inc. Quote Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here. ELV currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for product revenues indicates 5.3% growth from the year-ago period's $6.16 billion. However, the consensus estimate for premiums indicates a 4.9% decrease from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for Commercial Individual membership implies a 17.3% fall from a year ago, while our model estimate indicates an 18.1% decline. Also, declining memberships in Medicaid (-6.8%) are likely to have kept third-quarter performance in check. However, the consensus estimate for Commercial Fee-based memberships indicates 1.7% year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carelon brand's operating income for the third quarter indicates a 0.2% year-over-year decrease. The consensus estimate for the Health Benefits segment's operating income for the third quarter indicates a 23.9% year-over-year plunge, making an earnings beat uncertain. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the benefit expense ratio is pegged at 91.4, higher than the year-ago level of 91.3, which could further weigh on profitability during the quarter. Nevertheless, our model estimate for total expenses indicates a 5.5% year-over-year decline, which is likely to have provided some respite. While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Elevance, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around: Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. AVAH has an Earnings ESP of +3.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aveanna Healthcare's bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter of 20 cents indicates 33.3% year-over-year growth. It has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for revenues predicts a 9.9% increase from a year ago. CVS Health Corporation CVS has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVS Health's bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 1.3% increase from a year ago. The company's earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 20.5%. The consensus estimate for CVS' revenues is pegged at $105.04 billion, signaling a 2.1% increase. Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. ACHC has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acadia Healthcare's bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 46 cents per share, which remained stable over the past week. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 47%. ACHC's revenues for the to-be-reported quarter are pegged at $869.26 million, a 2.1% increase from the year-ago period. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) : Free Stock Analysis Report CVS Health Corporation (CVS) : Free Stock Analysis Report Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) : Free Stock Analysis Report Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-12

CVS Health’s Valuation Suggests Opportunity, but Can Earnings Deliver?

Insider Monkey
CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) operates across several areas of healthcare, including health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, and retail pharmacy services. Although its diverse range of businesses provides it with access to a variety of revenue sources, increasing medical costs, pressures relating to reimbursement, and ongoing regulatory scrutiny are still affecting its profitability. For investors, the main issue is whether CVS's forward valuation properly takes into account its ability to recover earnings. A low P/E ratio may point to an opportunity, but only on the condition that the company is able to convert its large revenue base into sustainable earnings and cash flow. At the same time, CVS stands out as one of the blue-chip stocks investors can consider for under $100. CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) runs through three main segments: Health Care Benefits, which offers insurance coverage via Aetna; Health Services, which includes CVS Caremark as its pharmacy benefit manager; and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness, which manages its chain of retail pharmacies. This arrangement exposes CVS to various parts of the healthcare system and provides opportunities for coordinating insurance, prescription drug benefits, and patient care. Yet each section also faces its own challenges, especially rising medical costs and pressure on pharmacy margins. The company has been expanding its revenue base, with annual revenue rising from about $292.1 billion in 2021 to $322.5 billion in 2022, to $357.8 billion in 2023, to $372.8 billion in 2024, and then reaching $402.1 billion in 2025. This amounts to a growth of about 38% over the four-year period, a result being due to the scale of its healthcare operations and acquisitions. Also read: CVS Health (CVS) vs Cigna (CI): Which is a Better Stock to Buy? Recent results also show a growing trend. In the second quarter of 2026, CVS achieved revenue of $106.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and adjusted earnings per share rose to $2.58 from $1.81. The company has also raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to the range of $7.90 to $8.10. These figures support the argument for an earnings recovery, although the extent to which this improvement can be sustained is still important. CVS may also appeal to investors looking for opportunities in a bear market. See which stocks rank higher than CVS on our list. T…Read full document

CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) operates across several areas of healthcare, including health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, and retail pharmacy services. Although its diverse range of businesses provides it with access to a variety of revenue sources, increasing medical costs, pressures relating to reimbursement, and ongoing regulatory scrutiny are still affecting its profitability. For investors, the main issue is whether CVS's forward valuation properly takes into account its ability to recover earnings. A low P/E ratio may point to an opportunity, but only on the condition that the company is able to convert its large revenue base into sustainable earnings and cash flow. At the same time, CVS stands out as one of the blue-chip stocks investors can consider for under $100. CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) runs through three main segments: Health Care Benefits, which offers insurance coverage via Aetna; Health Services, which includes CVS Caremark as its pharmacy benefit manager; and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness, which manages its chain of retail pharmacies. This arrangement exposes CVS to various parts of the healthcare system and provides opportunities for coordinating insurance, prescription drug benefits, and patient care. Yet each section also faces its own challenges, especially rising medical costs and pressure on pharmacy margins. The company has been expanding its revenue base, with annual revenue rising from about $292.1 billion in 2021 to $322.5 billion in 2022, to $357.8 billion in 2023, to $372.8 billion in 2024, and then reaching $402.1 billion in 2025. This amounts to a growth of about 38% over the four-year period, a result being due to the scale of its healthcare operations and acquisitions. Also read: CVS Health (CVS) vs Cigna (CI): Which is a Better Stock to Buy? Recent results also show a growing trend. In the second quarter of 2026, CVS achieved revenue of $106.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and adjusted earnings per share rose to $2.58 from $1.81. The company has also raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to the range of $7.90 to $8.10. These figures support the argument for an earnings recovery, although the extent to which this improvement can be sustained is still important. CVS may also appeal to investors looking for opportunities in a bear market. See which stocks rank higher than CVS on our list. The forward P/E ratio is a more meaningful measure than the trailing one since the recent reported earnings have been hit by substantial profitability pressures. The stock has a forward P/E of about 10 to 11 times, even though the exact multiple varies depending on the share price and the analysts' estimates. At that valuation, CVS has an implied forward earnings yield of about 9% to 10%, indicating that investors are paying a relatively small amount for each dollar of expected earnings. Yet the earnings yield does not guarantee a return; the valuation is based on CVS achieving the profits that the analysts expect. If medical costs go up or if there is fresh pressure on pharmacy operations, then earnings might fail to meet expectations and the apparent discount could become smaller. The historical P/E of CVS also shows the reason why investors should consider more than just a single valuation figure. Since reported earnings have varied, its trailing valuation has changed significantly. A high trailing price-earnings ratio may indicate only a temporary decline in profits rather than an abnormally high share price, while a low forward price-earnings ratio assumes that earnings will rise. Investors must therefore consider the forward multiple together with the company's earnings guidance, its cash generation, and the risks associated with each business segment. There is also a good reason to look at the stock since CVS has been paying dividends continuously for more than fifty years. The amount of its quarterly dividend, which works out to $2.66 per year at that rate, provides an income element alongside the potential gain from earnings growth. The stock has a dividend yield of over 3%; however, it ranks lower than 10 stocks on our high-yield dividend stocks article. The investment case for CVS Health looks attractive provided that its recovery goes on. This is because of revenue growth, improving adjusted earnings, and the fact that its forward price-to-earnings ratio is relatively low. However, the main risk lies in execution, since continued growth in earnings and cash flow will decide whether the stock's apparent discount is indeed a real opportunity. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CVS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CVS and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: Hormel Foods Has a Nearly 6% Dividend Yield. Is the Stock Too Cheap to Ignore? and This Lesser-Known Stock Has Paid Consecutive Dividends Since 1939. Is Its Valuation Attractive Enough to Buy? This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-10

CVS Says Its Star Ratings Are Strong. TD Cowen Sees a $0.41 Earnings Hit

TIKR

CVS Health (CVS:NYSE) shares fell about 2% on Friday to close at $86.16 after the new 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings left its Aetna unit with fewer top-rated plans. Aetna says more than 69% of its members will be in plans rated four stars or higher, and calls the results strong. TD Cowen read the same ratings as a $0.41 hit to 2028 adjusted EPS. TD Cowen estimates Aetna's four-star-plus share fell to about 70% from 82%. The bigger drop is at the top: the share in plans rated 4.5 stars or higher fell to 35% from 63%. That matters because the tiers pay differently. Four stars unlocks the quality bonus, but plans rated 4.5 stars or higher receive 70% of the difference between their benchmark and bid as a rebate, versus 65% for four-star plans. A downgrade from 4.5 to four stars can therefore reduce funding for member benefits even without losing bonus eligibility. Analysts expect CVS's normalized EPS to rise from $6.75 in 2025 to $8.04 in 2026, $8.53 in 2027 and $9.71 in 2028. For scale, $0.41 equals about 4% of the $9.71 consensus estimate. If the consensus doesn't yet include the ratings hit, implied 2028 EPS growth falls from about 14% to about 9%, with 2027 unchanged. UnitedHealth (UNH:NYSE) faces a similar slide, to about 67% from 81%, per J.P. Morgan. Aetna's case: nearly seven in ten members still sit in bonus-eligible plans, and its president, Steve Nelson, says the ratings support its push to restore appropriate margins. TD Cowen also says CVS can soften the hit by adjusting plan benefits. TD Cowen's case: the drop at 4.5 stars costs real money in 2028, the year the Street expects growth to reaccelerate. The Street still leans bullish. The mean target of $116 sits about 34% above Friday's close, with 18 buys, 7 outperforms and 2 holds. A 4% earnings trim doesn't break that thesis, but CVS will need its November 4 report to show the margin recovery is on track. TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what CVS stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use. Value CVS Health Corporation for free→

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-06

CVS Health Faces 340B Headwinds, Larger Earnings Risks in 2027, BofA Says

MT Newswires

CVS Health (CVS) faces manageable 340B headwinds in 2026, with larger earnings risks emerging in 2027, BofA Securities said in a Tuesday note. Analysts estimate total earnings per share risk of about $0.45, with $0.06 of headwinds impacting the business in 2026 and larger risks in 2027. BofA said headwinds include a growing list of drugmakers requiring claim-level data to approve 340B discounts, a proposed rule that would reduce 340B reimbursement, and lawsuits from a few covered entities alleging CVS is retaining excess 340B spreads. The proposed reimbursement change could result in a $600 million to $700 million EBIT headwind in 2027, according to the note. Analysts added, however, that the company has multiple ways to offset these headwinds, including through Aetna margin recovery, continued specialty pharmacy growth, and biosimilar adoption. BofA reiterated a buy rating on the stock and cut its price objective to $110 from $120.

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-05

CVS Health to hold third quarter 2026 earnings conference call

PR Newswire

WOONSOCKET, R.I., Oct. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- CVS Health® (NYSE: CVS) will hold a conference call with analysts and investors on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET to discuss third quarter 2026 financial results. An audio webcast of the event will be broadcast simultaneously on the Investor Relations portion of the CVS Health website at investors.cvshealth.com where it will be archived for a period of one year. About CVS Health CVS Health is a leading health solutions company simplifying health care one person, one family and one community at a time. As of June 30, 2026, the Company had approximately 9,000 retail pharmacy locations, more than 1,000 walk-in and primary care medical clinics and a leading pharmacy benefits manager with approximately 87 million plan members. The Company also serves an estimated 37 million people through a broad range of health insurance products and related services. The Company's integrated model uses personalized, technology driven services to connect people to simply better health, increasing access to quality care, delivering better outcomes, and lowering overall costs. Media contact Ethan Slavin 860-273-6095 [email protected] Investor contact Larry McGrath 800-201-0938 [email protected] View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cvs-health-to-hold-third-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-302897312.html

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-10-05

Will CVS Health (CVS) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

Zacks
If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider CVS Health (CVS). This company, which is in the Zacks Medical Services industry, shows potential for another earnings beat. This drugstore chain and pharmacy benefits manager has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 27.13%. For the last reported quarter, CVS Health came out with earnings of $2.58 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.87 per share, representing a surprise of 37.97%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $2.21 per share and it actually produced earnings of $2.57 per share, delivering a surprise of 16.29%. For CVS Health, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. CVS Health has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Man…Read full document

If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider CVS Health (CVS). This company, which is in the Zacks Medical Services industry, shows potential for another earnings beat. This drugstore chain and pharmacy benefits manager has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 27.13%. For the last reported quarter, CVS Health came out with earnings of $2.58 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.87 per share, representing a surprise of 37.97%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $2.21 per share and it actually produced earnings of $2.57 per share, delivering a surprise of 16.29%. For CVS Health, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. CVS Health has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report CVS Health Corporation (CVS) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-09-30

CVS Health declares quarterly dividend

PR Newswire

WOONSOCKET, R.I., Sept. 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- CVS Health® (NYSE: CVS) has announced that its board of directors has approved a quarterly dividend of sixty-six and one-half cents ($0.665 cents) per share on the Common Stock of the Corporation. The dividend is payable on November 2, 2026, to holders of record on October 22, 2026. About CVS Health CVS Health is a leading health solutions company simplifying health care one person, one family and one community at a time. As of June 30, 2026, the Company had approximately 9,000 retail pharmacy locations, more than 1,000 walk-in and primary care medical clinics and a leading pharmacy benefits manager with approximately 87 million plan members. The Company also serves an estimated 37 million people through a broad range of health insurance products and related services. The Company's integrated model uses personalized, technology driven services to connect people to simply better health, increasing access to quality care, delivering better outcomes, and lowering overall costs. Media contact Ethan Slavin 860-273-6095 [email protected] Investor contact Larry McGrath 800-201-0938 [email protected] View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cvs-health-declares-quarterly-dividend-302894998.html

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-09-24

CVS Group H2 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat
Interested in CVS Group plc? Here are five stocks we like better. CVS Group reported solid full-year growth: Revenue increased 5.9% to £712.8 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 5.1% to £141.5 million, and adjusted EPS climbed 6.9% to 85.6 pence. The company expects to perform in line with market expectations after weather and weak consumer confidence hurt U.K. demand late in the year. Australia remains a key expansion driver. CVS completed six Australian acquisitions during the year and has already announced further deals in the new financial year, while also agreeing to acquire a two-site U.K. practice for £15 million. The balance sheet and shareholder returns remain active: Net borrowings were £199.6 million, with leverage at 1.63 times EBITDA, while the company recommended a 9-pence final dividend and plans to complete a separate £50 million share buyback. Quick list of bargain stocks to end the year CVS Group (LON:CVSG) reported higher revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share for the year ended June 30, 2026, while highlighting softer U.K. companion-animal demand late in the year and continued expansion in Australia. Revenue rose 5.9% to £712.8 million, supported by acquisitions and 2.1% like-for-like revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 5.1% to £141.5 million, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was maintained at 19.9%. Adjusted earnings per share rose 6.9% to 85.6 pence. → These 3 AI Stocks Sold Off Hard—Even as Their Outlooks Improved Chief Executive Officer Richard Fairman said trading was affected during the final quarter by weak U.K. consumer confidence and periods of exceptionally hot weather at the end of May and June. He said some clients were less willing to travel by car with pets, leading routine appointments to be deferred and some procedures to be canceled. Fairman said the effect continued into July, though more recent trading had returned to levels seen before the heatwaves. The company said it had made a “solid start” to the new financial year and expects to perform in line with market expectations. → Insiders Signal Deep Value In DICK’s Sporting Goods CVS refinanced its banking facilities in May, securing committed facilities of £350 million through May 2030, with an option to extend by a further year to May 2031. Chief Financial Officer Robin Alfonso said the refinancing improved the group’s terms and flexibility. Net bank…Read full document

Interested in CVS Group plc? Here are five stocks we like better. CVS Group reported solid full-year growth: Revenue increased 5.9% to £712.8 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 5.1% to £141.5 million, and adjusted EPS climbed 6.9% to 85.6 pence. The company expects to perform in line with market expectations after weather and weak consumer confidence hurt U.K. demand late in the year. Australia remains a key expansion driver. CVS completed six Australian acquisitions during the year and has already announced further deals in the new financial year, while also agreeing to acquire a two-site U.K. practice for £15 million. The balance sheet and shareholder returns remain active: Net borrowings were £199.6 million, with leverage at 1.63 times EBITDA, while the company recommended a 9-pence final dividend and plans to complete a separate £50 million share buyback. Quick list of bargain stocks to end the year CVS Group (LON:CVSG) reported higher revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share for the year ended June 30, 2026, while highlighting softer U.K. companion-animal demand late in the year and continued expansion in Australia. Revenue rose 5.9% to £712.8 million, supported by acquisitions and 2.1% like-for-like revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 5.1% to £141.5 million, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was maintained at 19.9%. Adjusted earnings per share rose 6.9% to 85.6 pence. → These 3 AI Stocks Sold Off Hard—Even as Their Outlooks Improved Chief Executive Officer Richard Fairman said trading was affected during the final quarter by weak U.K. consumer confidence and periods of exceptionally hot weather at the end of May and June. He said some clients were less willing to travel by car with pets, leading routine appointments to be deferred and some procedures to be canceled. Fairman said the effect continued into July, though more recent trading had returned to levels seen before the heatwaves. The company said it had made a “solid start” to the new financial year and expects to perform in line with market expectations. → Insiders Signal Deep Value In DICK’s Sporting Goods CVS refinanced its banking facilities in May, securing committed facilities of £350 million through May 2030, with an option to extend by a further year to May 2031. Chief Financial Officer Robin Alfonso said the refinancing improved the group’s terms and flexibility. Net bank borrowings stood at £199.6 million at year-end, and leverage increased to 1.63 times EBITDA, reflecting acquisitions and share buyback programs. The company said leverage remained within its stated threshold of two times bank debt to EBITDA. → Coach’s Momentum Powers Tapestry Despite the Stock’s Sharp Pullback Operating cash conversion was 70.6%, above the company’s target of at least 70%, while free cash flow fell 4.2% to £69.2 million. Alfonso said the decline reflected adverse working-capital movements associated with changes in buying relationships, as well as the timing of research and development expenditure receipts. CVS invested £45.4 million in Australia during the year, including a small minority-interest buyout, and spent £36.4 million on capital expenditure. The company expects annual capital expenditure to decline to about £30 million, while maintenance spending is expected to remain at a similar or slightly higher level over the next several years. The board recommended a final dividend of 9 pence per share. CVS also completed a £20 million share buyback associated with its move to the main market in January and expects to complete a separate £50 million buyback announced in May within the next couple of months. CVS completed six Australian acquisitions comprising 14 sites during the financial year, for initial consideration of £43.3 million. Australia generated A$79.1 million in revenue, representing just over 11% of group revenue, while its operations, excluding central overheads, contributed about £20 million of group EBITDA, according to Fairman. The company said it has completed two Australian acquisitions so far in the new financial year, covering four sites. It has also signed contracts for two further Australian transactions: a three-site practice in South Australia and a single-site practice in Western Australia. Chief Veterinary Officer Paul Higgs said CVS has about a 2% share of practices in Australia and sees substantial room for further consolidation. He said the company has typically paid around six times EBITDA for Australian acquisitions. In the U.K., CVS said it has signed contracts to acquire a two-site practice employing nine full-time-equivalent vets. Higgs said the consideration is £15 million and the deal is at an accretive EBITDA multiple. The company said it expects the transaction to complete in the coming weeks and has a growing pipeline of additional opportunities. The veterinary practices division posted revenue growth of 5.2% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 4.3%. Alfonso said the division was most exposed to higher wage inflation, employer National Insurance contributions, the weaker economic backdrop and weather-related disruption. Laboratories revenue increased 11.5% to £35 million, while adjusted EBITDA in the unit rose 25.6%, aided by revenue growth and operating leverage. The online retail business reported revenue growth of 11.1%, following website upgrades, expanded payment options, subscription functionality, next-day delivery and increased marketing activity. CVS launched its Healthy Pet Club Advanced membership offering on July 1 after a trial during the prior financial year. The product includes the preventative-care benefits of the core Healthy Pet Club plan along with unlimited consultations for an additional monthly fee. Higgs said about 14,500 clients had joined the new plan since launch. Although overall Healthy Pet Club membership declined slightly during the year, revenue from membership fees increased to £95.5 million. The company is also expanding digital capabilities, including online booking, digital membership sign-up, two-way client messaging and an AI scribe tool for consultations. Fairman said CVS is broadly comfortable with remedies arising from the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority process, which concluded following publication of remedies and fees orders. The group is implementing the requirements and has adopted joint CVS Vets branding across its U.K. companion-animal practices, which it said will support national marketing and customer relationship management campaigns. CVS Group is a leading provider of veterinary services, operating in the UK and Australia, listed on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. CVS is focused on providing high-quality clinical services to its clients and their animals, with outstanding and dedicated clinical teams and support colleagues at the core of its strategy. The Group operates from over 475 veterinary practices across its two territories, including specialist referral hospitals and dedicated out-of-hours sites. Alongside the core Veterinary Practices division, CVS operates Laboratories (providing diagnostic services to CVS and third-parties) and an online retail business ("Animed Direct"). The Group employs c.8,900 personnel, including c.2,400 veterinary surgeons and c.3,300 nurses. This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected]. The article "CVS Group H2 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat. View MarketBeat's top stocks for September 2026.

Related articleQuarter not tagged2026-09-22

Can UNH Stock Keep Growing Earnings While Its Sales Stall?

Trefis
UnitedHealth (UNH) has turned its profits around. Operating earnings rose 55% in the second quarter of 2026, and management raised its full-year adjusted earnings guide to $19.50 to $20 a share. Revenue, though, has nearly stopped growing. So the rest of the recovery rests on something the company only partly controls: the medical bills of the people it insures. The rebound came from repricing, not from growth. Year-over-year revenue growth ran above 12% for two quarters, then slowed to 2.0% and to 0.4% in the latest quarter. Second-quarter revenue of $112 billion was largely in line with a year earlier, yet operating earnings grew to $8 billion. Management credits the pricing, benefit design and market actions it has taken over the past year. Medicare Advantage membership is shrinking as well, and the company expects that enrollment to fall by about 1.1 million in 2026. With sales this flat, earnings per share grow only if margins widen or the share count falls. Management still stands by a long-term earnings growth rate of 13% to 16%, and the CEO says that rate includes productivity gains and use of capital. Margin is exactly where the pressure sits. In commercial plans, medical cost trend is running modestly above 11%, and management says it sees no evidence of moderation yet. One primary driver, by the company's own account, is the arbitration process under the No Surprises Act, which applies only to commercial plans. Management says that process adds about 50 basis points of extra trend in 2026. When arbiters side with out-of-network providers, the average payout is now 11 times what Medicare would pay. Management says the sticky trend is pushing full commercial margin recovery past 2027. Medicare looks better, with trend below plan. Yet management says that is not an inflection point: trend there is continuing at high levels, and its 2027 planning expects no meaningful let-up. In Medicaid, rate increases of around 6% to 7% are still lagging medical trend. Worried enough to watch closely. UnitedHealth can keep growing earnings on flat sales only while its pricing stays ahead of medical cost trend, and in commercial plans that trend shows no sign of easing yet. Management calls the commercial repair a multi-year journey, so this risk will not arrive as one bad headline. Instead, it plays out gradually as contracts reprice against claims. The starting poi…Read full document

UnitedHealth (UNH) has turned its profits around. Operating earnings rose 55% in the second quarter of 2026, and management raised its full-year adjusted earnings guide to $19.50 to $20 a share. Revenue, though, has nearly stopped growing. So the rest of the recovery rests on something the company only partly controls: the medical bills of the people it insures. The rebound came from repricing, not from growth. Year-over-year revenue growth ran above 12% for two quarters, then slowed to 2.0% and to 0.4% in the latest quarter. Second-quarter revenue of $112 billion was largely in line with a year earlier, yet operating earnings grew to $8 billion. Management credits the pricing, benefit design and market actions it has taken over the past year. Medicare Advantage membership is shrinking as well, and the company expects that enrollment to fall by about 1.1 million in 2026. With sales this flat, earnings per share grow only if margins widen or the share count falls. Management still stands by a long-term earnings growth rate of 13% to 16%, and the CEO says that rate includes productivity gains and use of capital. Margin is exactly where the pressure sits. In commercial plans, medical cost trend is running modestly above 11%, and management says it sees no evidence of moderation yet. One primary driver, by the company's own account, is the arbitration process under the No Surprises Act, which applies only to commercial plans. Management says that process adds about 50 basis points of extra trend in 2026. When arbiters side with out-of-network providers, the average payout is now 11 times what Medicare would pay. Management says the sticky trend is pushing full commercial margin recovery past 2027. Medicare looks better, with trend below plan. Yet management says that is not an inflection point: trend there is continuing at high levels, and its 2027 planning expects no meaningful let-up. In Medicaid, rate increases of around 6% to 7% are still lagging medical trend. Worried enough to watch closely. UnitedHealth can keep growing earnings on flat sales only while its pricing stays ahead of medical cost trend, and in commercial plans that trend shows no sign of easing yet. Management calls the commercial repair a multi-year journey, so this risk will not arrive as one bad headline. Instead, it plays out gradually as contracts reprice against claims. The starting point also had help. Second-quarter results included $860 million of net favorable prior-period medical development, about a tenth of that quarter's operating earnings. Most of that reserve adjustment stemmed from earlier quarters in 2026 rather than from prior years. Management says the $19.50 to $20 guide is still the right base even though it reflects that development, and that nothing needs carving out. The numbers to watch arrive with third-quarter 2026 results: whether commercial cost trend is still above 11%, and the fresh Medicare trend estimate management has said will probably come then. Options traders are not pricing unusual stress for now, with implied volatility in the 40th percentile of its past year. Our implied volatility screen shows how large a move the market expects, and that can change quickly. That depends on what else you hold, because a cost problem like this one surfaces quietly, one report at a time. Weighing it across everything you own is the work the Trefis High Quality Portfolio is built to do. That portfolio has a track record of outpacing the three major indices.

As of 2026-10-24 • Updated weeklySource: Earnings sourceIngestion runbook