B+
Bull case
28%
Probability
Target price
$162.00
+10.9% vs current
CVLT
CommvaultANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$149.00
+2.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
22%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
-14.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-01
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+45.7
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source sentiment is positive because the latest confirmed company filing showed strong ARR, SaaS, and cash-flow trends plus explicit FY27 growth guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]. But conviction should remain moderate: the packet has no recent trusted-news set, no usable social coverage, and no confirmed analyst-revision tape, while the stock already trades above the packet’s median target. This remains a constructive monitoring view rather than a high-conviction chase.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-01
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-31catalystNext quarterly print must validate FY27 guidance after a strong Q4/FY26 closeHigh impact
The April 28, 2026 SEC-filed earnings release showed Q4 revenue up 13% year over year, total ARR up 21% to $1.122 billion, SaaS revenue up 43%, and FY27 guidance for subscription revenue of $1.115 billion to $1.125 billion, subscription ARR of $1.200 billion to $1.210 billion, total revenue of $1.300 billion to $1.310 billion, and free cash flow of $250 million to $260 million, making the next quarterly update the key confirmation point rather than a fresh thesis reset [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28].
2026-12-31catalystSecurity and cloud ecosystem expansion can broaden cyber-resilience shareHigh impact
Recent business highlights cited integrations or alliances with Microsoft Security, CrowdStrike, NetApp, Okta, CloudSEK, STACKIT, and Satori-related AI data protection, which could expand Commvault’s enterprise relevance if partnerships convert into larger deployments and cross-sell wins [#8-K-2026-04-28].
2027-03-31catalystSaaS and subscription mix shift continues to improve revenue qualityHigh impact
Commvault’s filed Q4 FY26 release showed full-year subscription revenue up 30%, SaaS revenue up 52%, and subscription ARR up 27%, supporting a higher-visibility recurring model if management sustains this mix shift through FY27 [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-01 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology