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CVI

CVR EnergyD
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong refinery and ammonia utilization, improved crack spreads, better fertilizer pricing and the planned East Dubuque expansion could support cash generation and eventual deleveraging.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Analyst revision evidence after the print remains unavailable, and the observed post-print price reaction was muted rather than clearly bullish.
Momentum
93
Value
66
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $32.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $33.40
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d +1.7
Value66 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -7.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revision evidence after the print remains unavailable, and the observed post-print price reaction was muted rather than clearly bullish.
  • • Realized and mark-to-market hedge losses can obscure or offset operational improvement.
  • • The earnings improvement remains highly cyclical and was accompanied by material renewable-fuel compliance and hedging headwinds in stored earnings context.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-01

Q2 2026 operating rebound with muted market reaction

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+19.6
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+11.4
Sentiment
41
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.3
Δ21d
-25.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 92.9 / Value 65.7 / Sentiment 41.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.66B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
100.53M
P/E (TTM)
15.6
P/S (TTM)
0.36
P/FCF (TTM)
123.46
Rev YoY
+55.5%
EPS YoY
-97.4%
Gross Margin
+8.5%
Op Margin
+6.8%
Net Debt
$1.3B
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data