B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CVI
CVR EnergyCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-03
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+40.1
Positive
Company
+2.0
Mixed
Macro
+40.3
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+22.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+24.2
Score
AI commentary
News tone is mixed: Q2 operating metrics and the reported earnings/revenue figures were stronger than the secondary consensus comparisons, but the July 31 closing reaction was approximately flat to slightly negative. The RankAlpha anchor was $35.62 versus MarketBeat's $35.51 close, a minor source difference. No confirmed post-print analyst target or estimate revision was located. Social, options, short-interest and employee-sentiment data were not supplied.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-03
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-01eventQ2 2026 operating rebound with muted market reactionMedium impact
The company reported Q2 net loss attributable to CVR stockholders of $3 million, adjusted EBITDA of $209 million, adjusted EPS of $0.34, 98% crude utilization and 99% ammonia utilization. A secondary MarketBeat earnings page reported adjusted EPS of $0.34 versus $0.26 consensus and revenue of $2.74 billion versus $2.22 billion expected. It also recorded a July 31 close of $35.51, down 0.32%, indicating a muted post-print reaction. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
2026-11-01catalystEast Dubuque turnaround weighs on Q3 fertilizer outputMedium impact
The planned August turnaround and brownfield expansion are expected to increase capacity by approximately 5%, but the temporary outage creates a near-term execution and utilization drag. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
2027-08-03catalystDeleveraging and selective growth optionalityHigh impact
Management said current market conditions could support accretive growth, opportunities to reduce leverage and additional shareholder value. This remains dependent on refining margins, fertilizer conditions and cash generation. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology