B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
+8.1% vs current
CSWC
Capital SouthwestBNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$24.30
+3.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$21.20
-10.2% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.4
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+18.6
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+49.9
Score
AI commentary
News tone is mildly positive because the company delivered a dividend-supported quarter and highlighted new JV funding, but the market reaction through May 15 was mixed rather than emphatic. Visible analyst follow-through appears limited so far, which keeps this as a cautious T+3 earnings-monitoring update instead of a strong post-print re-rating call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-23catalystEarly post-print revision flow is modest and the tape reaction is mixedMedium impact
The initial price path was not a clean breakout: CSWC closed at 23.44 on May 13, rebounded to 24.01 on May 14, and finished at 23.57 on May 15, while visible secondary-source revision flow remained limited; one visible post-print item was B. Riley lifting its target to $24.50 from $24.
2026-06-30eventPost-earnings digestion centers on dividend coverage, credit quality, and JV fundingMedium impact
Fiscal Q4 results showed pre-tax NII of $0.59/share, estimated UTI of $1.07/share, non-accruals at 1.1% of fair value, a $0.58 regular dividend plus $0.06 supplemental dividend, and management highlighted that CapTrin closed a $150 million revolving credit facility after quarter-end [#8-K-2026-05-13].
2026-09-30catalystOriginations plus new JV capacity can support earning-asset growth if credit marks holdHigh impact
Management reported $157.7 million of quarterly new commitments, a $2.1 billion portfolio, $364 million of credit-facility availability, and regulatory debt-to-equity of 0.90x; the Trinity-linked first-out JV adds another deployment path, but the benefit depends on maintaining low non-accruals and stable marks [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology