B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$122.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CPT
Camden Property TrustBNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest bullish read is that 1Q26 Core FFO modestly beat Camden's own guide, full-year Core FFO guidance was maintained at a $6.75 midpoint, liquidity remained strong at about $881.9 million, and management kept recycling capital toward Sun Belt markets while repurchasing stock near current levels. That combination can support a gradual rerating if second-half supply eases and lease-up progresses.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.1.
What can break
Camden recorded a $53.0 million charge tied to the RealPage-related class action settlement term sheet; even though excluded from Core FFO, it remains a real cash and headline overhang.
Momentum
48
Value
55
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $116.00 · Bull $122.00 · Bear $98.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $111.28
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +15.4
Value55 · Δ7d -
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -7.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Camden recorded a $53.0 million charge tied to the RealPage-related class action settlement term sheet; even though excluded from Core FFO, it remains a real cash and headline overhang.
- • Development and lease-up carry timing risk, with 1,162 homes under construction and remaining funding needs of about $176.6 million as of March 31, 2026.
- • The bearish read is that same-property NOI fell 0.7% year over year, effective new lease rates were down 5.2%, blended lease rates stayed negative at 1.4%, and the 2026 reported FFO midpoint was cut to $6.10 from $6.61.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-01
Post-earnings reset shows better Core FFO than guide but lower reported FFO outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.4
Δ21d
+18.5
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.1
Δ21d
-17.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 48.5 / Value 55.4 / Sentiment 61.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$116.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$13.73B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
100.54M
P/E (TTM)
44.2
P/S (TTM)
7.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-105.05
Rev YoY
-0.9%
EPS YoY
-75.3%
Gross Margin
+22.5%
Op Margin
+17.7%
Net Debt
$3.89B
Current Ratio
0.31
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data