B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$122.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CPT
Camden Property TrustCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest bullish read is that 1Q26 Core FFO modestly beat Camden's own guide, full-year Core FFO guidance was maintained at a $6.75 midpoint, liquidity remained strong at about $881.9 million, and management kept recycling capital toward Sun Belt markets while repurchasing stock near current levels. That combination can support a gradual rerating if second-half supply eases and lease-up progresses.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.
What can break
Camden recorded a $53.0 million charge tied to the RealPage-related class action settlement term sheet; even though excluded from Core FFO, it remains a real cash and headline overhang.
Momentum
34
Value
54
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $116.00 · Bull $122.00 · Bear $98.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $116.97
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d +2.4
Value54 · Δ7d -
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +8.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Camden recorded a $53.0 million charge tied to the RealPage-related class action settlement term sheet; even though excluded from Core FFO, it remains a real cash and headline overhang.
- • Development and lease-up carry timing risk, with 1,162 homes under construction and remaining funding needs of about $176.6 million as of March 31, 2026.
- • The bearish read is that same-property NOI fell 0.7% year over year, effective new lease rates were down 5.2%, blended lease rates stayed negative at 1.4%, and the 2026 reported FFO midpoint was cut to $6.10 from $6.61.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-01
Post-earnings reset shows better Core FFO than guide but lower reported FFO outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
34
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-4.8
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+5.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 33.9 / Value 53.6 / Sentiment 57.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$116.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$14.64B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
100.54M
P/E (TTM)
44.2
P/S (TTM)
7.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-112.02
Rev YoY
-0.9%
EPS YoY
-75.3%
Gross Margin
+22.5%
Op Margin
+17.7%
Net Debt
$3.89B
Current Ratio
0.31
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data