CPF

Central Pacific FinancialB

NYSE / Banks

At close

2026-06-03

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$39.00

+15.3% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$34.00

+0.5% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$29.00

-14.3% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-21

AI commentary

CPF looks like a cautious monitoring long/neutral rather than a high-conviction bullish setup. Primary evidence is real and constructive: Q4 2025 showed better margin, lower deposit costs, improved efficiency, strong capital, and renewed capital return support [#8-K-2026-01-28]. But deterministic signals remain neutral with slightly negative expected returns across short and intermediate horizons, catalyst density is low, and forward visibility still depends heavily on the April 29, 2026 earnings print. The most reasonable stance is that downside looks manageable absent a credit surprise, while upside likely requires another quarter of proof on funding, loan stabilization, and capital deployment.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-21

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-04-29eventApril 29, 2026 first-quarter earnings check on NIM and funding durabilityMedium impact

Central Pacific Financial's investor-relations site says the company will release first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026 before the NYSE open, which is the next clean checkpoint for whether the fourth-quarter improvement in NIM, lower deposit costs, and core-deposit growth carried into 2026 [#IR-2026-04-08] [#8-K-2026-01-28].

2026-07-29catalystNear-term proof that credit and loan balances stay controlled rather than drift weakerMedium impact

Fourth-quarter 2025 results showed provision expense down to $2.4 million, net charge-offs improving to 0.18% annualized, and the ACL stable at 1.13%, but loans were also down 1.5% sequentially; if upcoming quarters preserve credit quality without continued balance shrinkage, the market can support a better multiple, while another soft loan quarter would likely cap the stock [#8-K-2026-01-28].

2026-12-31catalyst2026 capital return execution under the new repurchase planMedium impact

The January 28, 2026 earnings release disclosed a new $55 million 2026 share repurchase authorization and a 3.6% dividend increase to $0.29 per share, giving CPF an ongoing shareholder-yield support lever if management continues to deploy excess capital at prices below intrinsic value [#8-K-2026-01-28].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology