B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
+90.3% vs current
COLL
Collegium PharmaceuticalBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
+37.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
-14.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+87.3
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source tone is constructive because Q1 showed growth, cash generation, and an accretive AZSTARYS close, but the packet still has low coverage, no social signal, and no analyst revision set, so this stays a cautious monitoring view rather than a high-conviction bull case.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-07eventQ1 revenue growth and cash generation stayed solidMedium impact
Q1 2026 revenue rose 9% to $193.5M, JORNAY PM grew 36%, pain portfolio revenue grew 4%, cash from operations was $57.1M, and the company ended with $421.8M in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities; the 10-Q also disclosed the AZSTARYS purchase agreement and its cash/term-loan funding plan. [#IR-2026-05-07][#10Q-2026-05-07]
2026-05-12eventAZSTARYS close and guidance raise added near-term upsideMedium impact
Collegium completed the AZSTARYS acquisition on May 12 and raised 2026 guidance to $865M-$895M in product revenues and $475M-$500M in adjusted EBITDA; AZSTARYS is expected to add $60M-$70M of 2H26 net revenue. [#IR-2026-05-12]
2027-05-12catalystAZSTARYS integration could extend the revenue baseHigh impact
Management says AZSTARYS should extend the revenue base into the late 2030s, with six Orange Book-listed patents lasting mostly until December 2037 and annual run-rate synergies expected to exceed $50M within 12 months, so execution of the integration and ramp is the key long-duration monitor. [#IR-2026-05-12]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology