COLL

Collegium PharmaceuticalB

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

At close

2026-07-18

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$52.00

+41.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$45.00

+22.5% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$29.00

-21.0% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-07-03

AI commentary

Primary-source tone is constructive: Q1 execution was solid and the May 12 close brought a real guidance step-up. But coverage remains thin, the peer set is loose, and the thesis is now more integration-driven than sentiment-driven, so this still looks like a cautious monitoring-style positive rather than a clean high-conviction rerate. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07][#IR-2026-05-12]

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-03

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-07eventQ1 results showed JORNAY acceleration and pain-portfolio durabilityMedium impact

Collegium reported Q1 2026 net revenue of $193.5M, with JORNAY PM revenue up 36% year over year to $38.9M, pain portfolio net revenue up 4% to $154.6M, cash/marketable securities of $421.8M, and reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for the pre-AZSTARYS business. This supports the view that the base business was still executing before the portfolio step-up. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]

2026-05-12eventAZSTARYS close raised 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidanceHigh impact

On May 12, 2026, Collegium completed the AZSTARYS acquisition and raised 2026 guidance to $865M-$895M of total product revenue and $475M-$500M of adjusted EBITDA, while stating the deal should be immediately accretive and extend revenue visibility through 2037. This is the clearest near-term rerating input in the packet. [#IR-2026-05-12]

2027-05-12catalystADHD portfolio integration is now the main forward execution testHigh impact

The longer-duration case depends on integrating AZSTARYS into Collegium’s existing ADHD infrastructure, converting the added asset into the guided $60M-$70M of remainder-of-2026 revenue, and realizing more than $50M of annual run-rate synergies within twelve months without disrupting the legacy pain franchise. [#IR-2026-05-12]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-07-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology