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COF

Capital One FinancialC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat was supported by revenue growth, higher NIM, lower credit provisions, loan growth, and stated integration progress. The result provides evidence that the combined platform can generate substantial earnings despite acquisition-related costs.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
CET1 declined to 13.7%, limiting flexibility around capital returns and acquisition integration.
Momentum
53
Value
47
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $220.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $175.00Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $259.45
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +4.1
Value47 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +4.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CET1 declined to 13.7%, limiting flexibility around capital returns and acquisition integration.
  • • Credit quality could normalize adversely as consumer and auto portfolios expand.
  • • The adjusted EPS beat was helped by a $662 million reserve release, while non-interest expense rose 7% sequentially and reported results still included Discover and Brex integration costs.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Discover technology migration milestone

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
-13.4
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-8.1
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+6.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 53.2 / Value 47.1 / Sentiment 65.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$135.86B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
613.49M
P/E (TTM)
105.3
P/S (TTM)
3.31
P/FCF (TTM)
8.22
Rev YoY
+42.2%
EPS YoY
-3.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+4.3%
Net Debt
$44.57B
Current Ratio
2.72
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data