CNX

CNX ResourcesD

NYSE / Energy

At close

2026-06-03

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$43.00

+28.1% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$38.00

+13.2% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$31.00

-7.7% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-03

AI commentary

Primary evidence is solid because the Q1 update was confirmed through the April 30, 2026 company 8-K and supplemental materials, but the T+3 setup still looks like a monitoring run rather than a high-conviction thesis change. Checked secondary sources pointed to an earnings beat versus consensus, yet immediate market reaction looked mixed to mildly negative and delayed analyst revision data was not robustly available. With recent coverage centered on the earnings event and no verified broad post-print upgrade cycle in hand, sentiment is best treated as cautiously balanced rather than decisively bullish.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-30eventQ1 print showed strong realized pricing, profit rebound, and free cash flow generation [#8-K-2026-04-30]Medium impact

CNX posted Q1 2026 revenue of $786.7M, net income of $348.1M, diluted EPS of $2.18, and free cash flow of $139M, while net debt improved to about $2.361B. The quarter showed stronger operating cash generation and margins than the prior-year loss backdrop, but investors are now testing whether those gains are durable rather than one-off commodity-driven strength.

2026-06-30catalystUpdated 2026 outlook trimmed FCF and EBITDAX on lower open-volume gas price assumptions [#8-K-2026-04-30]Medium impact

Production and capital spending ranges were held, but CNX lowered 2026 adjusted EBITDAX to $1.265B-$1.315B from $1.310B-$1.360B and reduced expected 2026 free cash flow to about $525M from about $550M as open-volume gas assumptions moved lower. That softer forward setup is the clearest near-term cap on multiple expansion after earnings.

2026-12-31catalystLarge hedge book and stable production plan support cash-flow resilience if gas stays constructive [#8-K-2026-04-30]High impact

CNX kept 2026 production guidance at 605-620 Bcfe and disclosed 459.6 Bcf hedged for 2026 with fully covered volumes priced around $2.74/Mcf, plus 400.3 Bcf hedged for 2027 around $3.31/Mcf. The hedge book limits upside in a strong gas tape but improves downside protection and supports a steadier deleveraging/per-share cash flow story.

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology