B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CLW
Clearwater PaperCNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Volume growth, completed maintenance work, Cypress Bend savings, and $59 million of quarterly net-debt reduction provide operational support. A sustained SBS recovery and successful price increases could restore earnings power [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.
What can break
Cypress Bend savings and announced price increases may be delayed or insufficient.
Momentum
73
Value
57
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.75 · Bull $25.00 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.50
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -18.3
Value57 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +2.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cypress Bend savings and announced price increases may be delayed or insufficient.
- • Further paperboard price weakness could overwhelm volume growth and cost savings.
- • Pricing remains the dominant issue: Q2 paperboard pricing fell 9%, Adjusted EBITDA turned negative, and management said pricing remains below levels needed for acceptable returns.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29
Q2 print confirms volume resilience but exposes pricing pressure
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-18.3
Δ21d
-24.7
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+2.7
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+9.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 73.2 / Value 56.9 / Sentiment 61.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$332.72M
Beta
0.20
Shares Out
16.13M
P/E (TTM)
2.3
P/S (TTM)
0.19
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
5.89
Rev YoY
-4.3%
EPS YoY
-701.4%
Gross Margin
+1.6%
Op Margin
-3.6%
Net Debt
$359.4M
Current Ratio
2.29
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data