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CLW

Clearwater PaperB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Volume growth, completed maintenance work, Cypress Bend savings, and $59 million of quarterly net-debt reduction provide operational support. A sustained SBS recovery and successful price increases could restore earnings power [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.
What can break
Cypress Bend savings and announced price increases may be delayed or insufficient.
Momentum
76
Value
57
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.75 · Bull $25.00 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.25
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -18.5
Value57 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +8.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cypress Bend savings and announced price increases may be delayed or insufficient.
  • • Further paperboard price weakness could overwhelm volume growth and cost savings.
  • • Pricing remains the dominant issue: Q2 paperboard pricing fell 9%, Adjusted EBITDA turned negative, and management said pricing remains below levels needed for acceptable returns.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Q2 print confirms volume resilience but exposes pricing pressure

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.5
Δ21d
-24.0
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+2.7
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
+4.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 76.1 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 62.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$332.72M
Beta
0.20
Shares Out
16.13M
P/E (TTM)
2.3
P/S (TTM)
0.19
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
5.89
Rev YoY
-4.3%
EPS YoY
-701.4%
Gross Margin
+1.6%
Op Margin
-3.6%
Net Debt
$359.4M
Current Ratio
2.29
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data