B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.64
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CLMT
CalumetFNasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Durable recovery in regional crack spreads, sustained specialty-product pricing, and tight working-capital execution lead to positive earnings revisions and analyst re-ratings, driving shares toward the bull target (34.6436). Key catalysts: sustained margin improvement, favorable feedstock dynamics, and positive post-earnings revisions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Rapid demand weakness for specialty products
Momentum
93
Value
42
Sentiment
28
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $21.35 · Bull $34.64 · Bear $13.25Analysis 2026-02-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $53.40
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d +2.5
Value42 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment28 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Rapid demand weakness for specialty products
- • Unexpected regulatory or logistical disruptions to operations
- • Prolonged weak refining spreads, higher feedstock or logistics costs, or working-capital strain compress free cash flow and trigger downward estimate revisions, driving shares toward the bear target (13.25084).
Catalyst clock
2026-03-12
Q4 2025 earnings release and conference call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-0.1
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
28
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 93.2 / Value 42.1 / Sentiment 27.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$21.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.25B
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
87.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-124.1
P/S (TTM)
0.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
57.42
Rev YoY
+40.8%
EPS YoY
-35.7%
Gross Margin
+6.6%
Op Margin
+1.2%
Net Debt
$2.25B
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data