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CLMT

CalumetF
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Durable recovery in regional crack spreads, sustained specialty-product pricing, and tight working-capital execution lead to positive earnings revisions and analyst re-ratings, driving shares toward the bull target (34.6436). Key catalysts: sustained margin improvement, favorable feedstock dynamics, and positive post-earnings revisions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
What can break
Rapid demand weakness for specialty products
Momentum
89
Value
42
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.35 · Bull $34.64 · Bear $13.25Analysis 2026-02-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $55.80
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d -8.2
Value42 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment26 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Rapid demand weakness for specialty products
  • • Unexpected regulatory or logistical disruptions to operations
  • • Prolonged weak refining spreads, higher feedstock or logistics costs, or working-capital strain compress free cash flow and trigger downward estimate revisions, driving shares toward the bear target (13.25084).

Catalyst clock

2026-03-12

Q4 2025 earnings release and conference call

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
89
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.2
Δ21d
-8.5
Value
42
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 89.5 / Value 42.0 / Sentiment 25.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.64
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$21.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.33B
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
87.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-126.6
P/S (TTM)
0.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
58.56
Rev YoY
+40.8%
EPS YoY
-35.7%
Gross Margin
+6.6%
Op Margin
+1.2%
Net Debt
$2.25B
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data