CLF

Nucor (NYSE:NUE) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, October 26, 2026. The company has a market value of about $58.9 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $36.1 billion in revenue and $4.2 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.9 billion. The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on. See the earnings reaction history of all stocks Nucor's Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release: - There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 14 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 74% of the time. - Over the last three years that share falls to 55%, across 11 releases. - The median of the 14 positive 1D returns is 4.7%, and the median of the 5 negative ones is -2.7%. - The largest one-day reactions were 9.1% and -8.9%. The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics. Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D 7/27/2026 | 7.2% | 5.4% | -0.1% 4/27/2026 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 14.6% 1/26/2026 | -2.3% | 1.9% | -1.2% 10/27/2025 | 5.4% | 2.7% | 8.4% 7/28/2025 | -2.7% | -5.2% | 2.4% 4/28/2025 | 1.9% | 3.4% | -6.6% 1/27/2025 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% 10/21/2024 | -6.5% | -5.4% | -7.3% 7/22/2024 | -1.1% | -2.4% | -12.2% 4/22/2024 | -8.9% | -8.6% | -10.2% 1/29/2024 | 6.9% | 3.2% | 8.8% 10/23/2023 | 4.8% | 6.0% | 12.3% 7/24/2023 | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% 4/20/2023 | 5.5% | -2.1% | -5.0% 1/26/2023 | 8.4% | 11.7% | 3.7% 10/20/2022 | 2.5% | 12.4% | 16.6% 7/21/2022 | 9.1% | 8.1% | 21.1% 4/21/2022 | 3.7% | -6.1% | -28.7% 1/27/2022 | 4.0% | 20.4% | 39.8% Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D # Positive | 14 | 13 | 11 # Negative | 5 | 6 | 8 Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.4% | 10.3% Median Negative | -2.7% | -5.3% | -7.0% Max Positive | 9.1% | 20.4% | 39.8% Max Negative | -8.9% | -8.6% | -28.7% Does The First Move Carry On? Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. The strongest relationship over five years is between the 5D and the following 21 days, at 0.67 across 19 releases: the early move has tended to continue in the same direction. That is a tendency, not a rule, and it can break on any given report. History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D 5 Years | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.67 3 Years | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.23 Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings? Steel Dynamics (STLD) usually reports a few days before Nucor, and reported this season on October 20, 2026; its stock fell 0.3% the next day. The table compares Steel Dynamics' one-day reaction to its own earnings with Nucor's one-day reaction to the report that followed. It covers the 12 quarters in which Steel Dynamics reported shortly before Nucor. The correlation is -0.04, close to zero: Steel Dynamics' reaction has told you little about how Nucor's stock would react. NUE Earnings Date | NUE 1D | STLD 1D 7/27/2026 | 7.2% | 1.3% 4/27/2026 | 4.7% | 3.3% 10/27/2025 | 5.4% | 5.2% 7/28/2025 | -2.7% | -1.7% 4/28/2025 | 1.9% | 4.0% 1/27/2025 | 3.8% | -0.4% 10/21/2024 | -6.5% | 4.0% 7/22/2024 | -1.1% | -0.7% 1/29/2024 | 6.9% | -0.5% 10/23/2023 | 4.8% | -0.3% 7/24/2023 | 3.7% | -3.0% 1/27/2022 | 4.0% | 2.3% Correlation | - | -0.04 Trading around earnings is a bet on a single event. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as NUE can offer, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio: about 30 stocks selected for consistent cash generation, strong margins and resilient balance sheets, with a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.

Investors might want to bet on Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), as earnings estimates for this company have been showing solid improvement lately. The stock has already gained solid short-term price momentum, and this trend might continue with its still improving earnings outlook. The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this mining company, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is principally built on this insight. The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008. Consensus earnings estimates for the next quarter and full year have moved considerably higher for Cleveland-Cliffs, as there has been strong agreement among the covering analysts in raising estimates. The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate: For the current quarter, the company is expected to earn $0.39 per share, which is a change of +190.7% from the year-ago reported number. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cleveland-Cliffs has increased 14.6% over the last 30 days, as three estimates have gone higher compared to no negative revisions. For the full year, the earnings estimate of $0.12 per share represents a change of +104.8% from the year-ago number. There has been an encouraging trend in estimate revisions for the current year as well. Over the past month, three estimates have moved up for Cleveland-Cliffs versus no negative revisions. This has pushed the consensus estimate 400% higher. The promising estimate revisions have helped Cleveland-Cliffs earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500. Cleveland-Cliffs shares have added 8.9% over the past four weeks, suggesting that investors are betting on its impressive estimate revisions. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away to benefit from its earnings growth prospects. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Cleveland-Cliffs just reported Q3 2026 and the story on the screen is very different from the story in the numbers. The stock slipped 3.2% today to about US$13.65, easing back after a strong 90 day run, even as the business swung from losses earlier this year to earnings of US$0.27 per share and US$5.6b in revenue. That move hints at investors fixating on old worries about leverage and volatility, while a powerful earnings recovery and US$612m in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization quietly resets the trajectory. The sentiment shift is cautious, but the underlying trend is far more aggressive. Love Cleveland-Cliffs' earnings rebound but still uneasy about leverage and volatility risk? Compare it with a list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks (25 results) to see how sturdier operators stack up on the same metrics. - Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$5,612m vs. US$4,734m (higher top line year on year) - Net Income/Loss (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025, Excl. Extra Items): Net income of US$154m vs. a loss of US$248m (swing back to profit) - Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$0.27 per share vs. a loss of US$0.50 per share (earnings moved into positive territory) - Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 2026 vs. Q2 2026): US$612m vs. US$286m (stronger operating earnings quarter on quarter) Don't stop at this quarter's rebound. Ask Charlie what makes Cleveland-Cliffs so sure about 2027. The bullish script says execution on higher value steel and lower unit costs should steadily reshape Cleveland-Cliffs' earnings profile. "The main factor is continued execution on cost reductions, footprint optimization, and DOE-backed projects so that lower unit costs and a higher value-added steel mix show through consistently in earnings and cash flow." Q3 gives that claim real weight. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled quarter on quarter to US$612m as unit costs improved by US$17 per ton and higher selling prices flowed through. Middletown and Butler capex is now contracted with grant support, and guidance for Q4 adjusted EBITDA of about US$715m signals the cost and mix thesis is starting to appear in reported profit, not just slide decks. Bears focus on the reliance on protection, cost shocks, and balance sheet clean up as potential weak links in the Cleveland-Cliffs story. "The current narrative assumes that recent improvements in free cash flow and leverage, supported by roughly US$400 million of property sale proceeds and a target to move leverage below 2.5x, translate into a steadier financial profile. Any disappointment versus these expectations, or a market reassessment of the P/E multiple applied to future earnings, could lead to a lower share price even if revenue and EBITDA remain broadly in line with guidance." This quarter leans against that worry but does not erase it. Management reasserted deleveraging as the primary cash use, reiterated a leverage goal below 2 to 2.5x by mid 2027, and flagged contracted asset sales expected to close in Q4 to pay down debt. At the same time, the stock slipped 3.2% on the day despite the earnings recovery, which shows that solid EBITDA and policy support alone have not settled concerns about cyclicality, Canadian political headlines, or the path to a structurally lighter balance sheet. One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its lower Fair Value, assumptions and all. Cleveland-Cliffs shows that earnings momentum and share price reactions can move in different directions. The real opportunity is in studying stocks that could be undervalued before the market closes the valuation gap. - Company 1 - 46% below our estimate - target large LED projects as cities upgrade scoreboards, transit hubs and youth sports venues using more software and services. - Company 2 - 39% below our estimate - expand manufacturing and supply chains so higher margin protective films and installation services reach more car buyers through OEM and dealer channels. - Company 3 - 47% below our estimate - convert a record backlog of technology heavy projects as data centers and modular builds demand integrated mechanical, electrical and plumbing systems. Three companies from the same screener. Open the full list of 34 companies trading below our fair value estimates → This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include CLF. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]

Cleveland-Cliffs, with a steelmaking plant in Middletown and one of Butler County's largest employers, had its strongest third quarter in three years, according to company officials. The results were released Monday, Oct. 19 and were above analyst expectations, supported by higher steel prices and increased revenue compared with the previous year. The company generated third-quarter revenue of $5.6 billion, representing an 18% increase from the $4.7 billion reported in the corresponding period of 2025. "The trade environment continues to support a healthy American steel industry," said Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lourenco Goncalves. "Imports remain well below historical levels, lead times are extended, and our customers increasingly recognize the value of a reliable domestic supply chain." He said based on the new contracts the company has signed with clients and prevailing index price forecasts, the company expects its 2027 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to exceed $4 billion. Shares in the US steel producer rose more than 7% in premarket trading following the publication of its financial results. The company's reported adjusted earnings per share was $0.28, compared with analysts' estimate of $0.22 and revenue reached $5.6 billion, slightly below market expectations of $5.71 billion. Its EBITDA of $612 million exceeded the $575 million guidance issued three months earlier. The company shipped 4.2 million net tons of steel during the quarter, with an average selling price of $1,177 per net ton, it said. This compared with an average selling price of $1,032 per net ton in the third quarter of 2025, representing an increase of approximately 14%. Goncalves said the higher average selling price contributed to the year-on-year increase in revenue. He said Cleveland-Cliffs expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $715 million for the fourth quarter of 2026, an increase of approximately $103 million from the third-quarter result. Middletown Works employs about 1,900 hourly workers, said Shawn Coffey, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) Local 1943. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency has approved a permit allowing Cleveland-Cliffs to move forward with a $1 billion modernization project at its Middletown Works steel mill. The permit authorizes installation of a high-efficiency cogeneration plant that will generate steam and electricity for use at the facility, along with modifications to the blast furnace and related material-handling operations. Cleveland-Cliffs officials have said the project will rebuild and modernize the mill's ironmaking operations while improving energy efficiency. The Middletown facility opened in 1900 as The American Rolling Mill Company. According to Cleveland-Cliffs spokesperson Patricia Persico, the cogeneration plant will use steelmaking process gases to produce electricity and steam, allowing Middletown Works to self-generate nearly 50% of its electricity while reducing demand on the local power grid. The company already operates similar cogeneration facilities at Cleveland Works, Burns Harbor, Indiana Harbor and Dearborn Works. The project is expected to create up to 1,500 construction jobs during the buildout. Joshua Smith, president and CEO of the Butler County Finance Authority, previously called the investment one of the most consequential economic development projects in the county's history. With the permit approved, Cleveland-Cliffs can move forward with the modernization project, which company officials expect to complete over the next four years.

Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) snapped a five-day losing streak on Monday, surging 16.34 percent to close at $14.10 after reporting its strongest quarterly performance in three years, returning to profitability and fueling hopes of a sustained recovery this year. In an updated report, the steelmaker said it swung to a net income attributable to shareholders of $152 million from a net loss attributable to shareholders of $251 million in the third quarter last year. Revenues surged by 18 percent to $5.612 billion from $4.734 billion year-on-year, on the back of higher average selling prices, sales volumes, and unit costs. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $612 million—its strongest by far—versus $143 million in the same period in 2025. Photo by Mizuno K on pexels The third-quarter performance helped slash Cleveland-Cliffs' (NYSE:CLF) nine-month attributable net loss by 81 percent to just $230 million from $1.235 billion in the comparable period last year. Revenues also totaled $15.76 billion, marking a 10-percent jump from 14.3 billion year-on-year. READ NEXT: Silence Therapeutics (SLN) Gets 130% Premium Offer From Merck, Shares Surge Over 100% "The trade environment continues to support a healthy American steel industry. Imports remain well below historical levels, lead times are extended, and our customers increasingly recognize the value of a reliable domestic supply chain," Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves said. "As a result, our 2027 outlook has improved materially since our last earnings call, as several of the initiatives we identified as drivers of future earnings growth are developing more favorably than originally expected," he noted. Encouraged by the results, the company signaled it will clock the year with a strong finish. Based on new contracts already signed, Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) is targeting full-year adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion, compared with only $37 million last year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA alone is expected at $715 million, to be helped by increased pricing, partially offset by seasonality, increased maintenance outages, input costs and incentive compensation accruals. "We expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to further increase, even withtypical fourth-quarter seasonality and planned maintenance outages," Goncalves noted. "We continued to reduce debt in Q3 and, with amplified free cash flow in Q4 and property sale proceeds, we expect a major debt reduction in the fourth quarter. With all that, we remain on track to reach our leverage target of under 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by the middle of next year," he added. Institutional investors appeared to be bullish about Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), as evidenced by the jump in their combined holdings as of the latest quarterly hedge fund filings. Data from Insider Monkey showed that 53 hedge funds held positions in the stock as of the second quarter of the year, unchanged from the quarter earlier. However, their collective holdings soared by 13 percent to $1.345 billion from $1.191 billion, signaling that existing investors were growing more confident in the steelmaker's prospects. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CLF as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CLF and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and Cathie Wood 2026 Portfolio: 10 Best Stocks to Buy. Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reported $5.61 billion in revenue for the quarter ended September 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.6%. EPS of $0.28 for the same period compares to -$0.45 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.56% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.58 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.24, the EPS surprise was +16.67%. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health. Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance. Here is how Cleveland-Cliffs performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: - External Sales Volumes - Total steel Products: 4,150.00 KTon versus 4,283.39 KTon estimated by three analysts on average. - Average net selling price per net ton of steel products: $1,177.00 versus $1,188.09 estimated by three analysts on average. - Steel shipments by product - Coated steel: 1,289.00 KTon compared to the 1,342.19 KTon average estimate based on two analysts. - Steel shipments by product - Plate: 177.00 KTon versus the two-analyst average estimate of 184.10 KTon. - Revenues- Other Businesses: $165 million versus $180 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -4.6% change. - Revenues- Steelmaking: $5.45 billion compared to the $5.61 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +19.4% year over year. - Revenues- Steelmaking- Stainless and electrical steel: $514 million compared to the $535 million average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of +10.3% year over year. - Revenues- Steelmaking- Plate steel: $267 million compared to the $271.34 million average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of -6.6% year over year. - Revenues- Steelmaking- Other: $561 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $507.21 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +38.5%. - Revenues- Steelmaking- Cold-rolled steel: $704 million compared to the $738.36 million average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of +10.7% year over year. - Revenues- Steelmaking- Hot-rolled steel: $1.75 billion compared to the $1.94 billion average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of +55.9% year over year. - Revenues- Steelmaking- Coated steel: $1.65 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $1.62 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +14.6%. View all Key Company Metrics for Cleveland-Cliffs here>>> Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs have returned +16.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.7% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicating that it could outperform the broader market in the near term. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

- Cleveland-Cliffs fell 7% on profit taking after Q3 EBITDA of $612M beat its own $575M guidance and 2027 projections topped $4 billion. - Nucor dipped just 1% and SLX fell under 1% while SPY edged higher, confirming the selloff is concentrated in Cleveland-Cliffs shares. - Building a portfolio and living off one are two completely different skills, and almost nobody teaches the second. This problem is what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps, and it is free today. Read more here. (Sponsor) Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) are giving back part of the rally that followed the steelmaker's strongest quarter in three years. Cleveland-Cliffs stock has dropped 6% to $13.31 as morning trading unfolds, falling far harder than the rest of the steel group. Meanwhile, Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) stock is down 2% to $6.37, a slide that trails the drop in Cleveland-Cliffs shares. At the same time, Nucor (NYSE:NUE) stock practically unchanged at $260.58. Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28 on Monday, exceeding the $0.24 consensus estimate. The company's revenue reached $5.61 billion, slightly missing expectations of $5.72 billion. Higher prices did the heavy lifting for Cleveland-Cliffs. Its average net selling price rose to $1,177 per ton from $1,124 in Q2 2026, pushing adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) past the company's own guidance. CEO Lourenco Goncalves summed up the period. He stated, "Third quarter was our strongest quarter in three years, with adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, a number above the $575 million guidance we provided three months ago." Looking ahead, Cleveland-Cliffs expects Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $715 million and projects the 2027 figure above $4 billion, citing newly signed customer contracts. Executives expect Q4 to top Q3 even with typical seasonal slowdowns and planned maintenance outages, and that outlook triggered a sharp rally in Cleveland-Cliffs stock on Monday, while the decline now under way reads as profit taking after that run. ------ Many successful investors eventually reach the same moment. The saving is done, the portfolio is built, and the question quietly changes from how much can I grow this to how much can I take out? Get that second question wrong and decades of good investing can come apart in a handful of years. That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It covers what your retirement could actually cost, which income sources are worth using, and the withdrawal math that decides whether the money lasts. It is free today from Fisher Investments. Read More Here › ------ One soft spot sits in Canada, where Cleveland-Cliffs plans to indefinitely idle the galvanizing lines at its Stelco unit amid an oversupplied market. Management stated that an improving Canadian hot-rolled market turned Stelco into a positive EBITDA contributor in Q3, which keeps the setback contained to one product line. On the earnings call, Cleveland-Cliffs management described its 2027 contract renewals as the most important positive development since the previous update, with those deals covering most light flat-rolled steel use outside automotive. More than half of the contracts were signed as of the call, and 55% to 60% of clients had already agreed to take-or-pay terms. Customers are focused more on securing volume than on price, management stated. Trade policy supports that pitch for Cleveland-Cliffs, with executives maintaining that imports remain 35% to 40% below levels seen before the 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. Cleveland-Cliffs also ruled out a share sale, with management declaring, "We are not going to issue stock. We don't need to." The VanEck Steel ETF (NYSEARCA:SLX) is basically unchanged at $103.21, so sector-level concerns don't explain the decline in Cleveland-Cliffs shares today. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.66% to $771.54, which shows the broad market heading higher. The SLX ETF also holds big global miners and foreign steelmakers, so its flat performance reflects a far wider basket. Cleveland-Cliffs runs an integrated steel operation that also includes Stelco, while Nucor focuses on domestic production. Nucor stock's modest dip and the small decline in SLX point to selling concentrated in Cleveland-Cliffs shares, a pattern consistent with profit taking after a big run. Cleveland-Cliffs now faces the question of whether Q4 adjusted EBITDA lands where the company forecast. Management at Cleveland-Cliffs expects its newly signed customer contracts to lift profit sharply in 2027, giving the bull case a clear benchmark. Heavy borrowing supports the bear case for Cleveland-Cliffs, which is targeting leverage under 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by mid-2027. Traders may prefer to keep their exposure smaller until the post-earnings swing in Cleveland-Cliffs stock resolves. (Sponsor) Most people spend their entire working lives focusing on one thing: growing a pile of money. Then they retire and discover the skill they actually need is close to the opposite. Turning that pile into steady income, year after year, through good markets and bad, without ever running out. It may be the least discussed and most consequential transition in personal finance, and plenty of otherwise careful investors walk into it with no real plan. That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It is a free guide from Fisher Investments covering what your retirement will really cost, where the cash flow should come from, and how much you can safely withdraw each year. Learn more here. Learn More Here › Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

- Cleveland-Cliffs shares surged after Q3 adjusted EBITDA reached $612 million, beating management's $575 million guidance. - Management expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion, more than double its approximately $1.7 billion implied for 2026. - TIKR estimates show roughly $3 billion in 2027 EBITDA, illustrating the size of management's ambitions, although the measures differ. - Elevated debt and steel-price volatility remain major risks, making fourth-quarter cash generation a crucial test. Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) shares rallied on October 19 after the steelmaker reported its strongest quarterly performance in three years and outlined an ambitious profitability outlook. According to the company's Q3 earnings release, adjusted EBITDA reached $612 million, exceeding its $575 million guidance and more than doubling Q2's $286 million. Adjusted EPS reached $0.28, while average selling prices rose to $1,177 per net ton from $1,032 a year earlier. CEO Lourenco Goncalves called it the company's "strongest quarter in three years." Management also guided for approximately $715 million in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, indicating further expected profitability improvements. Management expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion in 2027, supported by newly signed customer contracts and prevailing steel-price forecasts. Adding $993 million in adjusted EBITDA generated during the first nine months of 2026 to its $715 million Q4 guidance implies approximately $1.7 billion for the year. The 2027 outlook therefore represents more than twice the implied 2026 level. According to TIKR estimates, Cleveland-Cliffs is projected to generate approximately $3 billion in EBITDA in 2027, with EBITDA margins expected to reach around 13%. TIKR's EBITDA estimates are not necessarily calculated the same way as management's adjusted EBITDA outlook, so the figures should not be treated as directly equivalent. Earlier this month, Wells Fargo upgraded CLF to Overweight, with a $2.65 billion 2027 EBITDA forecast. For industry context, Steel Dynamics reported $921 million in adjusted EBITDA during Q2 2026, though its results cover a different reporting quarter. Cleveland-Cliffs' balance sheet remains a significant risk. According to TIKR data, Cleveland-Cliffs' net debt-to-EBITDA ratio increased from approximately 1.6x in 2023 to nearly 81x in 2025, primarily reflecting exceptionally weak EBITDA. This historical measure may differ from the adjusted leverage calculation underlying management's target of below 2.5x by mid-2027. Management expects a major debt reduction in Q4 and targets leverage below 2.5x by mid-2027. With approximately $7.6 billion in net debt at September's end, stronger cash generation will be critical. The company also plans to indefinitely idle Stelco's galvanizing lines amid Canadian market oversupply. Cleveland-Cliffs traded at approximately 9.2x forward earnings at the October 16 close, before its earnings-driven rally. However, the chart shows extreme positive and negative valuation multiples when earnings expectations approach or fall below zero, making its historical average an unreliable benchmark for determining fair value. Cleveland-Cliffs' rally appears justified by stronger quarterly earnings and improving guidance, but its $4 billion 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook does not automatically make the stock undervalued. Management's ambitious 2027 outlook depends on favorable steel prices, customer contracts, and continued operational improvement. CLF looks more compelling as an earnings-recovery opportunity than as a clearly undervalued stock. Investors should watch whether fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA approaches $715 million and whether management delivers meaningful debt reduction. If both targets are achieved, the bullish case would strengthen. However, weaker steel prices or disappointing debt reduction could make it difficult for the stock to sustain its rally. TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Cleveland-Cliffs could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use. Value Cleveland-Cliffs for free

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. - Adjusted EBITDA: $612 million in Q3 2026, more than double the $286 million in Q2; guidance of $715 million for Q4 2026; path to more than $4 billion in 2027. - Steel Shipments: 4.2 million net tons in Q3 2026, up from 4.0 million net tons in Q2; automotive shipments highest since Q3 2023. - Average Net Selling Price: $1,177 per ton in Q3 2026, up $53 per ton sequentially; similar improvement expected in Q4. - Unit Cost: Declined $17 per net ton in Q3 2026, exceeding prior guidance. - Contract Renewals: 2027 round expected to generate more than $1 billion of year-over-year EBITDA improvement before underlying index pricing changes. - Stelco: Now profitable; CAD 3.4 billion acquisition; Galvanneal business (less than 20% of Stelco output) still at risk with limited temporary layoffs. - Middletown Works Modernization: $1 billion project including $500 million Department of Energy support; completion expected Q1 2030. - Burns Harbor C Blast Furnace Reline: Postponed from mid-2027 to April 2028; preserves approximately 500,000 tons of production not in original 2027 plan. - Coal Contracts: Concluded at rollover pricing for 2027. - Cash Flow: Q3 working capital intensive, temporarily limiting cash inflows; improvement expected starting Q4 from lower working capital build and property sale proceeds. - Leverage: Confidence in reducing leverage below 2.5 times target by mid-2027; debt paydown remains top free cash flow priority. - Imports: Approximately 35% to 40% below pre-Section 232 tariff levels (50% tariffs on product and derivatives). - Warning! GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with CLF. - Is CLF fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: October 19, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. - Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA more than doubled sequentially to $612 million, beating guidance of $575 million, driven by higher shipments, selling prices, and lower costs. - 2027 contract negotiations are highly successful, with nearly all customers seeking more steel under contract, expected to generate over $1 billion of year-over-year EBITDA improvement. - Postponing the Burns Harbor C blast furnace reline to April 2028 preserves approximately 500,000 tons of production in 2027 and allows the company to capitalize on strong market conditions. - The Middletown Works modernization project is fully scoped at $1 billion, with $500 million DOE support, and will maintain uninterrupted production while adding advanced technologies. - Stelco has returned to profitability, and the Canadian hot-rolled market improved rapidly due to TRQ system, with further upside expected if Galvanneal trade issues are resolved. - Stelco's Galvanneal business in Hamilton remains at risk due to insufficient Canadian government action on imports, leading to temporary layoffs and underutilization. - USW contract negotiations have extended past the original deadline, creating uncertainty, though discussions remain productive. - Q4 costs are expected to increase slightly due to higher repair and maintenance, energy, alloy, and diesel expenses, which may pressure margins. - Working capital was a $160 million build in Q3, temporarily limiting cash inflows, and Q4 working capital is expected to be neutral at best. - Dearborn blast furnace remains idled because automotive customers have not committed to sufficient tonnage, highlighting ongoing demand uncertainty in the auto sector. Q: Timna Tanners of Wells Fargo asked for more color on 2027 CapEx and the Q4 asset sale proceeds.A: CFO Celso Goncalves said Q3 CapEx was about $150 million, with full-year 2026 CapEx still expected around $700 million versus roughly $560 million last year. He guided 2027 CapEx to just over $1 billion, driven by newly announced projects and pre-work for the Burns Harbor reline now moved to 2028, adding that this is "more than manageable" given expected EBITDA. Q: Timna Tanners asked what additional tonnage Cleveland-Cliffs could bring to market in 2027 given tight conditions.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves said the company is adding 25% new grain-oriented electrical steel capacity at Butler Works, will start hot trials on Galvanneal for exposed parts at Burns Harbor in early 2027 with more volume by mid-2027, and is reintroducing exposed electrogalvanized to auto OEMs. He noted the Dearborn blast furnace remains idled until customers commit tonnage, and that minimum contracted volumes are now take-or-pay, with more than 55%-60% of clients already signed. Q: Nick Giles of B. Riley asked how much of the fixed-price resets and lower index-linked discounts had been concluded.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves said more than half of clients have signed, with zero clients refusing, and he expects everything done by Thanksgiving. He called take-or-pay minimums "the new way of doing business in the US," a much more mature structure that both the company and clients are happy with. Q: Nick Giles asked what is underwritten in the Q4 guide on cost and ASP, and what is embedded in the 2027 cost bridge.A: CFO Celso Goncalves said Q3 cost per ton fell $17 versus a $10 guide, driven by higher production volumes. Q4 costs are expected to rise slightly on repair and maintenance, higher energy, alloy and diesel costs, while ASPs should rise a similar $45-$55 per ton as in Q3, with monthlies, quarterlies and spot pricing all improving. Q: Carlos de Alba of Morgan Stanley asked about Q4 working capital, asset sale proceeds, and whether an equity raise might be considered to strengthen the balance sheet.A: CFO Celso Goncalves said working capital should be neutral in Q4 after a $160 million build in Q3, and all asset sales are contracted to close in Q4. He said the company prefers using operating cash flow to pay down debt, starting with the ABL and then bonds, and does not need an equity raise. CEO Lourenco Goncalves added flatly: "We are not going to issue stock. We don't need to, full stop." Q: Nicklaus Cash of Goldman Sachs asked what specifically needs to happen before the idled Dearborn blast furnace becomes economic to restart.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves said customers must first commit tonnage, citing General Motors producing the Chevy Trax in South Korea and Ford's aluminum-skinned F-150 as examples of lost steel demand. He said "the clients are the ones that will dictate when the Dearborn will come back, not me." Q: Nicklaus Cash asked what changed in the repricing opportunity, which rose from $500 million to roughly $850 million.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves attributed the increase to strong renegotiation progress, saying last quarter's estimate was conservative and the new figure is more realistic now that deals are done. He declined to give specifics on tonnage or the pricing-versus-volume split. Q: Samuel McKinney of KeyBanc asked about the contract mix, noting buyers say mills are trying to reduce contract exposure to benefit from rich spot prices.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves said renewals are going well and clients are actually asking to raise minimums because securing steel matters more than price. He said fixed prices are gone in favor of index-linked deals with minimal or no discounts, with freight costs passed through, and clients are accepting the take-or-pay structure. Q: Samuel McKinney asked why Q3 volumes rose only about 125,000 tons versus the roughly 300,000 tons outlined last call, and whether the issues have subsided.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves blamed automotive customers' imperfect reshoring execution and unreliable just-in-time scheduling, which forced Cliffs to reschedule production. He said the company is working individually with each OEM and that multi-year automotive contracts, the first expiring January 1, will soon move toward take-or-pay minimums as well. Q: Albert Realini of Jefferies asked whether more uplift remains from the expired slab contract with ArcelorMittal Calvert.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves confirmed the benefit of no longer selling slabs is showing in results, noting Cliffs counted the days until the five-year supply obligation expired and did not renew it. He joked that ArcelorMittal is "doing extremely well" with its new slab supplier, then said he does not care and Cliffs is happy with the outcome. Q: Bill Peterson of JPMorgan asked how to think about 2027 shipment growth versus the market and whether it assumes share gains.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves said reshoring is real and overall demand is growing, imports are no longer a relevant part of supply, and announced new plants are years away if they materialize at all. He said customers prioritize reliability and know where to get steel, positioning Cliffs to benefit as the dependable domestic supplier. Q: Bill Peterson asked how value-added spreads between Canada and the US compare, to quantify the earlier comments on Canada.A: CEO Lourenco Goncalves said Canada's TRQ system, implemented in December 2025 and fine-tuned in June 2026, worked well for hot-rolled steel but not Galvanneal, where Stelco, ArcelorMittal Dofasco and heavy imports exceed domestic demand. He criticized Canada's open-for-business posture and Chinese EV imports as hurting Canadian workers, but said he believes "cold minds will prevail" and the situation will be resolved. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This story was originally published on Manufacturing Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Manufacturing Dive newsletter. By the numbers: Q3 2026 Revenue: $5.6B 18.5% increase YoY, and 7.4% higher than Q2 Net income: $165M Compared to a $234M loss last year, and a $134M loss in Q2 Cleveland-Cliffs saw its strongest quarter in three years, CFO Celso Goncalves said on an earnings call Monday, driven in part by higher prices and favorable costs. The steelmaker reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $612 million during Q3, which came in above its $575 million guidance issued three months ago. It was also more than double what Cleveland-Cliffs generated in Q2. "The third quarter of this year showed what happens when price, volume, mix and cost all move in a favorable direction," Goncalves said. Q3 steel shipments reached 4.2 million net tons, up 3% from a year ago and the previous quarter. The shipment mix during the period included 46% hot-rolled, 31% coated, 15% cold-rolled, 4% plate and 4% stainless and electrical. Shipments to North American automotive customers were the highest they've been since Q3 2023, Goncalves said. At the same time, market prices increased in the United States and Canada. The average net selling price reached $1,177 per ton, up $53 per ton from the previous quarter. "Customers are more focused on securing volume than price at the moment," Goncalves said. He also noted that unit costs declined by $17 per net ton in Q3, which exceeded the company's expectations and contributed largely to its posititive earnings. Goncalves said the "secret sauce" to lowering costs has been running the mills at full capacity to meet the company's order books. Cleveland-Cliffs is making progress on five operational projects, including two expansions supported by a total of $575 million in U.S. Department of Energy grants. It also moved to postpone the relining of a blast furnace in Burns Harbor from mid-2027 to April 2028. "By safely pushing out the reline, we can capitalize on a highly favorable commercial environment, preserve valuable production capacity during a period of strong demand and pricing, and enhance cash generation while maintaining operational reliability," Goncalves said. Cleveland-Cliffs' positive results coincided with one of the best pricing environments in three years, Lourenco Goncalves, CEO and father of Celso, said on the earnings call. "One thing that has become very clear is that a healthy domestic steel industry happens when trade laws are enforced, and when foreign producers are no longer allowed to dump steel into our markets without consequences," said Goncalves, a strong advocate for the Trump administration's tariff strategy. The administration shifted its Section 232 tariffs in April, setting a 50% rate on on the full custom value of steel, aluminum and copper, as well as a 25% rate on derivative goods. U.S. steel imports have become less attractive to buyers due to higher global steel and freight costs, as well as logistics disruptions and tariffs, according to Cleveland-Cliffs' Q3 earnings presentation. As a result, demand for domestically produced steel has continued to climb to support data centers, energy and other projects. Since its last earnings call in July, Cleveland-Cliffs has renewed several annual price-fixed contracts for next year. These agreements, which reset Jan. 1, 2027, cover every segment of light, flat-rolled steel consumption outside of automotive, Goncalves said. "Nearly all of these customers want more steel," he said, adding that the renewals should increase the company's EBITDA by more than $1 billion next year. Cleveland-Cliffs estimated adjusted EBITDA of $715 million during Q4, due to increased prices supported by favorable trade policies. Celso Goncalves said shipment levels should remain strong next quarter despite slower holiday activity and cold weather, and prices continue to climb. U.S. index prices have grown at an average rate of $40 per ton each month, and "we do not see any signals in our order book pointing to a slowdown of this pace," he said. The company also plans to schedule maintenance outages next quarter to ensure operations continue to run safely and securely. Cleveland-Cliffs estimated EBITDA to exceed $4 billion next year, citing contract changes and price projections. Given the favorable market backdrop, Goncalves said paying down debts is and will continue to be the company's top priority. Recommended Reading - Cleveland-Cliffs CEO blames Canada for Stelco layoffs - ',

Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here. - Management attributes the Q3 EBITDA doubling to a 'rational' trade environment where enforced tariffs have reduced imports by 35% to 40% from pre-Section 232 levels. - The company is successfully transitioning its commercial structure toward 'take-or-pay' contracts for minimum tonnages, shifting the negotiation focus from price to volume security. - Performance was bolstered by running mills at full utilization, which management identifies as the 'secret sauce' for driving unit costs $17 per ton lower than previous guidance. - The acquisition of Stelco has pivoted to profitability in hot-rolled steel following Canadian trade protections, though galvanized lines remain idled due to insufficient import restrictions. - Strategic positioning is focused on 'Fortress North America,' leveraging domestic manufacturing reshoring and infrastructure projects to maintain the best pricing environment in three years. - Management emphasized that they remain comfortable as a standalone entity, explicitly stating they do not require external technological assistance for their core automotive or electrical steel segments. - Management projects a path to over $4 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2027, assuming current market conditions, higher fixed-price resets, and lower index discounts. - The Burns Harbor C-Blast furnace reline is postponed from mid-2027 to April 2028 to capitalize on strong demand and preserve 500,000 tons of production capacity. - A $1 billion modernization of Middletown Works is underway, supported by $500 million in DOE funding, with a completion target of Q1 2030. - Capital expenditures are expected to rise from $700 million in 2026 to just over $1 billion in 2027 to fund strategic growth projects and reline preparations. - Free cash flow allocation will prioritize debt reduction, with a goal to lower leverage below the 2.0x-2.5x target range by mid-2027. - Temporary layoffs at Stelco's Hamilton facility persist as management awaits more restrictive Canadian quotas on galvanized steel imports. - The expiration of a legacy 5-year slab supply contract with ArcelorMittal Calvert has significantly improved EBITDA by allowing internal use of those slabs. - Labor negotiations with the USW have extended past the original deadline, though management describes the process as professional and expects a productive resolution. - Asset sales contracted for Q4 2026 faced minor delays due to local community and power supply obstacles but are expected to close by year-end. One stock. Nvidia-level potential. 30M+ investors trust Moby to find it first. Get the pick. Tap here. - Cliffs is adding 25% new production capacity for grain-oriented electrical steels at Butler Works to support electrical grid expansion. - The company is reintroducing electro-galvanized steel for automotive 'exposed parts' to utilize spare capacity that engineers had previously overlooked. - The Dearborn blast furnace remains idled and will only restart if automotive OEMs commit to higher domestic tonnage or shift production back from overseas. - Over 55% of clients have already signed new contracts, with management expecting 100% completion by Thanksgiving. - The market is shifting almost entirely to index-based pricing with minimal or no discounts, as customers prioritize supply reliability over price concessions. - Management confirmed that 'take-or-pay' clauses are becoming the new industry norm for their domestic contracts. - Management explicitly ruled out issuing stock, stating that projected cash flow from operations is more than sufficient to deleverage the balance sheet. - The primary target for debt repayment is the ABL facility, followed by the retirement of outstanding bonds. - Shipment growth was lower than the 300,000-ton forecast due to unorganized 'just-in-time' scheduling issues at major automotive OEMs. - Cliffs is working to implement more rigid contract terms with auto clients to better align production schedules and avoid future volume volatility.

Monday, October 19th, 2026 Pre-market futures are mixed but flattening out from last week's performance, when the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a bigger selloff than the blue-chip Dow index. Currently, the Dow is -88 points but the Nasdaq is +376 points — not quite making up for Friday's losses, but we're early yet. The S&P 500 splits the difference, +38 points, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is +12 points at this hour.  Spot oil prices remain elevated but are off their inflamed near-term highs: $101 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $108/bbl on Brent crude. Bond yields, similarly, are still lofty but cooling from recent levels: the 10-year, for instance, is currently +5.102% — consider that we were near +5.3% back in late September. The 2-year yield is now +4.749% and the 30-year +5.440%. We get some marquee names reporting Q3 earnings later this week — including GE, GM and NFLX Tuesday and META and TSLA Wednesday — but we start this week easing back into earnings season: Fifth Third Bank FITB shares are up modestly on its mixed Q3 report ahead of today's open. Earnings of $1.13 per share outperformed the Zacks consensus $1.09 by +3.67%, while revenues of $3.28 billion missed expectations by -1.74%. The Cincinnati-based bank continues to absorb Comerica synergies, and the stock has gained +7.6% year to date. For more on FITB's earnings, click here. Shares are jumping +15% at Ohio-based steel manufacturer Cleveland-Cliffs CLF, which has outpaced estimates on both top and bottom lines for its Q3 this morning. Earnings of $0.28 per share surpassed the Zacks consensus of $0.24 on revenues of $5.61 billion, for a +0.56% positive surprise. The stock is now trading in the green for the first time since briefly in the summer. For more on CLF's earnings, click here. We see some new housing data after today's open and tomorrow, with a fresh survey from North American Home Builders' (NAHB) Housing Market Index for October. Analysts are looking for a print of 31, a tick down month over month and way sub-50, which is the breakeven point between profit and loss. The last time this index was at 50 it was April 2024.  On Tuesday morning, Housing Starts for September is expected to remain steady month over month, at +1.3 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units. Building Permits, something of a proxy for new Starts, is expected to bounce back to +1.4 million from a disappointing +1.39 million reported the prior week. As always, we will have the breakdown between single-family (which brings a better bang for the buck to the overall economy) and multi-family housing. Also, Pending Home Sales for September are expected early Tuesday, with a drop of -0.3% projected to follow a +0.3% bump the prior month. Last week, we saw Existing Home Sales increase by +1.5% for September. We don't expect any major changes in household development until we begin to see mortgage rates come down, which we won't as long as bond yields remain high. Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) : Free Stock Analysis Report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research