CLF
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Earnings documents stored for CLF.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-08-13L.B. Foster's Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q2
Zacks
L.B. Foster's Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q2
L.B. Foster Company’s FSTR second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings were 48 cents per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 41 cents. On a reported basis, earnings were 29 cents per share compared with 27 cents a year ago. The company logged revenues of $138.6 million for the quarter, down 3.5% year over year. Revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $134.5 million by 3%. The year-over-year decline reflected lower sales in both the Rail, Technologies and Services and Infrastructure Solutions segments. New orders were roughly $176.1 million in the reported quarter, up 0.2% year over year. Backlog was $246.1 million, down 8.8% from the prior-year quarter but up 17.4% sequentially. L.B. Foster Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | L.B. Foster Company Quote Sales from the Rail, Technologies, and Services segment fell 5.2% year over year in the reported quarter to $72 million. Rail Products sales declined 27.3% due to the timing of large orders, partly offset by growth in Global Friction Management and Technology Services and Solutions. Segment gross margin expanded 70 basis points (bps) to 20.6%. Infrastructure Solutions segment sales were $66.5 million, down 1.5% year over year. Lower Steel Products sales were partly offset by growth in Precast Concrete Products. Segment gross margin improved 80 bps to 24.1% on favorable sales mix and manufacturing efficiency. L.B. Foster ended the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of around $5.8 million. Total debt was roughly $48 million, down 41.2% from the prior-year quarter, while the gross leverage ratio improved to 1 from 2.2 a year ago. Cash flow from operations was $17.9 million for the second quarter, up 71.7% year over year. Free cash flow increased 85% to $14.3 million. FSTR reaffirmed its 2026 financial guidance. It expects net sales in the range of $540-$580 million and adjusted EBITDA in the band of $41-$46 million. Free cash flow is projected in the range of $15-$25 million for the year. Capital spending is expected to account for roughly 2.7% of sales. The company said the $36.5 million sequential increase in backlog supports its growth expectations for the second half of 2026. At the midpoints, the sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance imply year-over-year growth of 3.7% and 11.3%, respectively. L.B. Foster’s shares are up 63.6% year to date compared with the Zacks Steel Produce…Read full documentShow less
L.B. Foster Company’s FSTR second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings were 48 cents per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 41 cents. On a reported basis, earnings were 29 cents per share compared with 27 cents a year ago. The company logged revenues of $138.6 million for the quarter, down 3.5% year over year. Revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $134.5 million by 3%. The year-over-year decline reflected lower sales in both the Rail, Technologies and Services and Infrastructure Solutions segments. New orders were roughly $176.1 million in the reported quarter, up 0.2% year over year. Backlog was $246.1 million, down 8.8% from the prior-year quarter but up 17.4% sequentially. L.B. Foster Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | L.B. Foster Company Quote Sales from the Rail, Technologies, and Services segment fell 5.2% year over year in the reported quarter to $72 million. Rail Products sales declined 27.3% due to the timing of large orders, partly offset by growth in Global Friction Management and Technology Services and Solutions. Segment gross margin expanded 70 basis points (bps) to 20.6%. Infrastructure Solutions segment sales were $66.5 million, down 1.5% year over year. Lower Steel Products sales were partly offset by growth in Precast Concrete Products. Segment gross margin improved 80 bps to 24.1% on favorable sales mix and manufacturing efficiency. L.B. Foster ended the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of around $5.8 million. Total debt was roughly $48 million, down 41.2% from the prior-year quarter, while the gross leverage ratio improved to 1 from 2.2 a year ago. Cash flow from operations was $17.9 million for the second quarter, up 71.7% year over year. Free cash flow increased 85% to $14.3 million. FSTR reaffirmed its 2026 financial guidance. It expects net sales in the range of $540-$580 million and adjusted EBITDA in the band of $41-$46 million. Free cash flow is projected in the range of $15-$25 million for the year. Capital spending is expected to account for roughly 2.7% of sales. The company said the $36.5 million sequential increase in backlog supports its growth expectations for the second half of 2026. At the midpoints, the sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance imply year-over-year growth of 3.7% and 11.3%, respectively. L.B. Foster’s shares are up 63.6% year to date compared with the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s 81.8% rise. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research FSTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Nucor Corporation NUE reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $4.84 per share, up from $1.73 reported in the prior quarter. The figure topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.57. NUE expects third-quarter 2026 earnings to rise, driven by higher pricing in Steel Mills and stronger volumes and pricing in Steel Products. Raw Materials earnings are projected to decline due to lower margins. Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD reported adjusted earnings of $3.8 per share for the second quarter, up from $2.01 per share in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.67 per share. Domestic steel and aluminum demand is expected to remain strong through 2026-27, supported by better orders, pricing and reshoring. Steel Dynamics expects aluminum profitability and volumes to rise sharply in second-half 2026 as utilization improves and startup costs ease. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF reported a second-quarter adjusted loss of 20 cents per share, narrower from 51 cents a year ago. The figure was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 21 cents per share. Cleveland-Cliffs expects a strong second half of 2026, with third quarter adjusted EBITDA projected at about $575 million and fourth quarter expected to be even stronger. CLF maintained its full-year shipment and capex guidance while targeting leverage below 2.5x by mid-2027. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report L.B. Foster Company (FSTR) : Free Stock Analysis Report Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) : Free Stock Analysis Report Nucor Corporation (NUE) : Free Stock Analysis Report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-27Why Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumped Despite Its Latest Quarterly Loss
Trefis
Why Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumped Despite Its Latest Quarterly Loss
The steelmaker is still losing money, but a leap in guidance and a coming contract reset convinced the market the profit recovery is finally real. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) surged 8.9% on Friday to close at $11.93, a second straight jump right after its second-quarter 2026 earnings landed the morning before and lifted the stock 16%. The odd part is what the company actually reported, because it lost money again. What the market bought was the forecast. Was This The Whole Steel Sector Moving? No. Over the same session the broad market was flat, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, and the rest of the group moved only modestly. Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) each added 2.7% and RS rose 3.2%, a fraction of Cleveland-Cliffs' move. A rising steel-price tide would have carried all of them, and a broad basket of materials producers would have looked ordinary. This was one company's news, and the news was its own numbers. Why Cheer A Quarter That Lost Money? On paper the results were red. Revenue was $5.2 billion, up $300 million from the first quarter of 2026, yet the company still posted a GAAP net loss of $134 million, an adjusted net loss of $115 million, and a loss of $0.25 per share. Its net margin remains in the red at negative 4.6% over the trailing twelve months, versus a 1.8% profit peak over the past three years. The pull is the trend underneath, because adjusted EBITDA reached $286 million, its best in 2 years and roughly triple the first-quarter figure. Buyers treated the loss as the tail of a downturn rather than the shape of the business. What Is The Market Really Paying Up For? The forecast, almost entirely. Management guided adjusted EBITDA of about $575 million for Q3 2026, which would be its strongest in 3 years, and said Q4 2026 should top even that. It expects automotive shipments, already at their highest in 2 years, to keep climbing, and it flagged a reset of expiring fixed-price contracts that it estimates is worth about $500 million a year in added EBITDA. On that arithmetic it aims to cut leverage below 2.5 times within about a year. None of it has been earned yet, and all of it is the company's own projection. So Should You Chase A Two-Day Run? Be honest about what you would be buying, which is a stock repriced on figures that have not happened. The results in hand are still losses, and the quarter's return to positive free cash flow leaned on a…Read full documentShow less
The steelmaker is still losing money, but a leap in guidance and a coming contract reset convinced the market the profit recovery is finally real. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) surged 8.9% on Friday to close at $11.93, a second straight jump right after its second-quarter 2026 earnings landed the morning before and lifted the stock 16%. The odd part is what the company actually reported, because it lost money again. What the market bought was the forecast. Was This The Whole Steel Sector Moving? No. Over the same session the broad market was flat, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, and the rest of the group moved only modestly. Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) each added 2.7% and RS rose 3.2%, a fraction of Cleveland-Cliffs' move. A rising steel-price tide would have carried all of them, and a broad basket of materials producers would have looked ordinary. This was one company's news, and the news was its own numbers. Why Cheer A Quarter That Lost Money? On paper the results were red. Revenue was $5.2 billion, up $300 million from the first quarter of 2026, yet the company still posted a GAAP net loss of $134 million, an adjusted net loss of $115 million, and a loss of $0.25 per share. Its net margin remains in the red at negative 4.6% over the trailing twelve months, versus a 1.8% profit peak over the past three years. The pull is the trend underneath, because adjusted EBITDA reached $286 million, its best in 2 years and roughly triple the first-quarter figure. Buyers treated the loss as the tail of a downturn rather than the shape of the business. What Is The Market Really Paying Up For? The forecast, almost entirely. Management guided adjusted EBITDA of about $575 million for Q3 2026, which would be its strongest in 3 years, and said Q4 2026 should top even that. It expects automotive shipments, already at their highest in 2 years, to keep climbing, and it flagged a reset of expiring fixed-price contracts that it estimates is worth about $500 million a year in added EBITDA. On that arithmetic it aims to cut leverage below 2.5 times within about a year. None of it has been earned yet, and all of it is the company's own projection. So Should You Chase A Two-Day Run? Be honest about what you would be buying, which is a stock repriced on figures that have not happened. The results in hand are still losses, and the quarter's return to positive free cash flow leaned on a build in payables that management tied to higher raw material and maintenance costs, so the cash came from working capital rather than from profit. At $11.93 the stock sits roughly midway between its $7.82 low and $16.18 high over the past year, leaving real room if the guide lands and real air beneath it if the next report slips. The one thing worth watching is whether the Q3 2026 numbers actually deliver the $575 million management promised, which is exactly the test behind a screen of companies whose guidance keeps marching higher. A Guided Turnaround Is Still A Promise Nothing here says the recovery is fake. The order book is full, pricing is climbing, and the guide may well land. But a stock that can jump 16% and then another 8.9% on two days of forward numbers can hand it all back just as fast if a single quarter comes up short, and this one was still losing money in the very results that sparked the rally. Owning that swing is a wager on management hitting its own targets on schedule. A rules-based basket such as the Trefis High Quality Portfolio spreads that bet across quality names and re-balances by rule rather than on one company's guide. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the three major indices - the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-24Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
Zacks
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reported $5.23 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.9%. EPS of -$0.20 for the same period compares to -$0.50 a year ago. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.13 billion, representing a surprise of +1.88%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +4.76%, with the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.21. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance. Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance. Here is how Cleveland-Cliffs performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: External Sales Volumes - Total steel Products: 4,025.00 KTon versus 4,105.28 KTon estimated by three analysts on average. Average net selling price per net ton of steel products: $1,124.00 versus the three-analyst average estimate of $1,109.49. Steel shipments by product - Coated steel: 1,240.00 KTon compared to the 1,269.08 KTon average estimate based on two analysts. Steel shipments by product - Plate: 172.00 KTon versus the two-analyst average estimate of 203.05 KTon. Revenues- Other Businesses: $174 million versus $170.67 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +6.8% change. Revenues- Steelmaking: $5.05 billion compared to the $4.99 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +5.9% year over year. Revenues- Steelmaking- Stainless and electrical steel: $525 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $424.94 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +21%. Revenues- Steelmaking- Plate steel: $253 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $282.19 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -8%. Revenues- Steelmaking- Other: $527 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $418 million. The reported number represents a year…Read full documentShow less
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reported $5.23 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.9%. EPS of -$0.20 for the same period compares to -$0.50 a year ago. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.13 billion, representing a surprise of +1.88%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +4.76%, with the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.21. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance. Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance. Here is how Cleveland-Cliffs performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: External Sales Volumes - Total steel Products: 4,025.00 KTon versus 4,105.28 KTon estimated by three analysts on average. Average net selling price per net ton of steel products: $1,124.00 versus the three-analyst average estimate of $1,109.49. Steel shipments by product - Coated steel: 1,240.00 KTon compared to the 1,269.08 KTon average estimate based on two analysts. Steel shipments by product - Plate: 172.00 KTon versus the two-analyst average estimate of 203.05 KTon. Revenues- Other Businesses: $174 million versus $170.67 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +6.8% change. Revenues- Steelmaking: $5.05 billion compared to the $4.99 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +5.9% year over year. Revenues- Steelmaking- Stainless and electrical steel: $525 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $424.94 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +21%. Revenues- Steelmaking- Plate steel: $253 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $282.19 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -8%. Revenues- Steelmaking- Other: $527 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $418 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +26.4%. Revenues- Steelmaking- Cold-rolled steel: $660 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $708.3 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +2.3%. Revenues- Steelmaking- Hot-rolled steel: $1.54 billion versus $1.53 billion estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +15.5% change. Revenues- Steelmaking- Coated steel: $1.53 billion compared to the $1.55 billion average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of +10.1% year over year. View all Key Company Metrics for Cleveland-Cliffs here>>> Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs have returned -10.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicating that it could outperform the broader market in the near term. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-24Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Climbs 16% on Strong Earnings, Highly Upbeat Outlook
Insider Monkey
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Climbs 16% on Strong Earnings, Highly Upbeat Outlook
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) saw its share prices increase by 15.98 percent on Thursday to finish at $10.96 apiece, after reporting a strong earnings performance in the second quarter of the year. During the period, the company narrowed its net loss attributable to shareholders by 70 percent to $145 million from $486 million in the same period last year, as revenues increased by 6 percent to $5.2 billion from $4.9 billion year-on-year. A Cleveland-Cliffs facility in the Industrial Valley. Photo from Cleveland-Cliffs Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves pointed to the ongoing global tensions as benefitting the domestic steel market. “The domestic market remains strong as ongoing global tensions continue to underscore the importance of having a thriving domestic steel industry. Demand continues to improve, imports remain subdued, and lead times are extending further,” he said. “Our automotive volumes remained strong during the quarter and will increase further in Q3, helping to further absorb fixed costs as our finishing lines operate at higher utilization rates. In addition, we are beginning to see meaningful improvement in the Canadian market, positioning Stelco to return to generating significant earnings,” he added. Looking ahead, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) is confident about further improving its earnings performance in the second half of the year, “with average selling prices, volumes, and costs all moving in the right direction.” “Our second-half earnings performance should be our strongest since 2021 as Q4 EBITDA is currently expected to even further exceed our Q3 guidance. We expect to finish the year on a positive note and enter 2027 with significant momentum and additional opportunities for upside, including the higher reset of fixed price contracts and much improved profits in Canada,” Goncalves said. In line with the results, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) announced that its chief financial officer Celso Goncalves has been promoted to president and is now an official member of the board of directors. He replaced his father, Lourenco, who will remain as chairman and CEO of the company. Celso has served as executive vice president and CFO since 2021 and has been with the firm since 2016. Institutional participation in the company notably weakened in the first quarter of the year, despite improving prospect…Read full documentShow less
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) saw its share prices increase by 15.98 percent on Thursday to finish at $10.96 apiece, after reporting a strong earnings performance in the second quarter of the year. During the period, the company narrowed its net loss attributable to shareholders by 70 percent to $145 million from $486 million in the same period last year, as revenues increased by 6 percent to $5.2 billion from $4.9 billion year-on-year. A Cleveland-Cliffs facility in the Industrial Valley. Photo from Cleveland-Cliffs Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves pointed to the ongoing global tensions as benefitting the domestic steel market. “The domestic market remains strong as ongoing global tensions continue to underscore the importance of having a thriving domestic steel industry. Demand continues to improve, imports remain subdued, and lead times are extending further,” he said. “Our automotive volumes remained strong during the quarter and will increase further in Q3, helping to further absorb fixed costs as our finishing lines operate at higher utilization rates. In addition, we are beginning to see meaningful improvement in the Canadian market, positioning Stelco to return to generating significant earnings,” he added. Looking ahead, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) is confident about further improving its earnings performance in the second half of the year, “with average selling prices, volumes, and costs all moving in the right direction.” “Our second-half earnings performance should be our strongest since 2021 as Q4 EBITDA is currently expected to even further exceed our Q3 guidance. We expect to finish the year on a positive note and enter 2027 with significant momentum and additional opportunities for upside, including the higher reset of fixed price contracts and much improved profits in Canada,” Goncalves said. In line with the results, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) announced that its chief financial officer Celso Goncalves has been promoted to president and is now an official member of the board of directors. He replaced his father, Lourenco, who will remain as chairman and CEO of the company. Celso has served as executive vice president and CFO since 2021 and has been with the firm since 2016. Institutional participation in the company notably weakened in the first quarter of the year, despite improving prospects for the domestic steel market. Based on data by Insider Monkey, 53 hedge funds held positions in the firm during the period, down from 56 in the previous quarter. Their combined holdings also significantly dropped by 34 percent to $1.19 billion from $1.8 billion quarter-on-quarter, even as expectations for stronger domestic steel demand and supportive trade policies improved. While we acknowledge the potential of CLF as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and Cathie Wood 2026 Portfolio: 10 Best Stocks to Buy. Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-24Should You Buy, Sell or Hold NUE Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings?
Zacks
Should You Buy, Sell or Hold NUE Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings?
Nucor Corporation NUE is slated to come up with second-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on July 27. NUE is expected to have benefited from favorable steel prices and higher earnings across its segments in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings has been stable in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.57 per share, suggesting a 75.8% year-over-year increase. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research NUE surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 8.1%, on average. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nucor this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.NUE has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Higher segment earnings are likely to have aided NUE’s performance in the second quarter. Nucor is expected to have benefited from higher selling prices and strong demand from non-residential construction & infrastructure, military & defense and energy end markets.Nucor, last month, said that it expects earnings to increase across all three operating segments compared to the previous quarter. The largest increase is expected to be witnessed in the steel mills segment due to higher average selling prices and stable volumes.Approximately $130 million in cash refunds tied to prior raw materials procurement costs will also benefit the costs in the segment. The steel products segment is expected to benefit from higher volumes and slightly improved pricing, while the raw materials segment should see gains from stronger realized prices.U.S. steel prices recovered in the fourth quarter of 2025, following the lows seen in the third quarter, and the momentum continued in the first half of 2026. Overall demand weakness and abundant steel mill output dragged benchmark hot-rolled coil (“HRC”) prices below $800 per short ton in late August, continuing through early September. HRC prices have rebounded on major steel mills' price increases, extending lead times an…Read full documentShow less
Nucor Corporation NUE is slated to come up with second-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on July 27. NUE is expected to have benefited from favorable steel prices and higher earnings across its segments in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings has been stable in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.57 per share, suggesting a 75.8% year-over-year increase. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research NUE surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 8.1%, on average. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nucor this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.NUE has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Higher segment earnings are likely to have aided NUE’s performance in the second quarter. Nucor is expected to have benefited from higher selling prices and strong demand from non-residential construction & infrastructure, military & defense and energy end markets.Nucor, last month, said that it expects earnings to increase across all three operating segments compared to the previous quarter. The largest increase is expected to be witnessed in the steel mills segment due to higher average selling prices and stable volumes.Approximately $130 million in cash refunds tied to prior raw materials procurement costs will also benefit the costs in the segment. The steel products segment is expected to benefit from higher volumes and slightly improved pricing, while the raw materials segment should see gains from stronger realized prices.U.S. steel prices recovered in the fourth quarter of 2025, following the lows seen in the third quarter, and the momentum continued in the first half of 2026. Overall demand weakness and abundant steel mill output dragged benchmark hot-rolled coil (“HRC”) prices below $800 per short ton in late August, continuing through early September. HRC prices have rebounded on major steel mills' price increases, extending lead times and tightening supply, partly due to plant outages and reduced imports driven by tariffs. The recovery has led to HRC prices surging to near $1,200 per short ton. Higher selling prices are expected to have supported Nucor’s performance in the quarter to be reported. Our estimate for second-quarter average sales price per ton for the company’s steel mills unit stands at $1,308, indicating a 25.6% year-over-year increase.Nucor is expected to have witnessed continued demand weakness in certain markets such as heavy equipment, rail cars, truck and trailer and agriculture. Residential construction, a key end market for Nucor, remains another area of weakness. The construction sector has experienced a slowdown in the United States due to high interest rates, dampening steel demand in this market. Elevated borrowing costs and inflation have taken a bite out of the residential construction industry. The softness in this market is expected to have continued in the June quarter. Nucor’s shares have gained 65.4% in the past year, topping the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s rise of 60.9% and the S&P 500’s increase of 20%. Among its major U.S. steel-making peers, Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD has rallied 83.9% while Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF has lost 4.2%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, Nucor is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.25, a roughly 14.2% premium to the peer group average of 11.6X. It is trading at a discount to Cleveland-Cliffs and at a modest premium to Steel Dynamics. NUE currently has a Value Score of B, while Steel Dynamics and Cleveland-Cliffs have a Value Score of C and F, respectively. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Nucor is well positioned for long-term growth through capacity expansion, strategic acquisitions and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. Its new mills and downstream investments should strengthen its low-cost position, while solid liquidity and consistent shareholder returns reinforce financial resilience. Higher U.S. steel prices also provide a supportive backdrop for margins. However, the company continues to face headwinds from weak demand in residential construction and cyclical industrial markets, including heavy equipment and transportation. While these challenges may weigh on near-term performance, Nucor’s diversified end-market exposure, growth pipeline and strong balance sheet support its long-term investment appeal. Nucor benefits from its actions to expand its production capabilities and grow its business through strategic acquisitions. Its efforts to boost production capacity through several growth projects should drive profitability. Higher steel prices are also expected to support Nucor’s margins. Despite these positives, NUE remains exposed to demand weakness in certain areas such as residential construction, heavy equipment and agriculture, exerting some volume headwinds. Holding onto the NUE stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Nucor Corporation (NUE) : Free Stock Analysis Report Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) : Free Stock Analysis Report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-24CLF Q2 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Steel Pricing
Zacks
CLF Q2 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Steel Pricing
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted loss of 20 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 21 cents and the year-ago loss of 51 cents. Revenues rose 5.9% year over year to $5.2 billion and surpassed the consensus estimate of $5.1 billion by 1.9%. Higher steel pricing supported the top line and margin improvement, although steel shipment volumes declined from the prior-year quarter. Consolidated cost of goods sold declined to $5.1 billion from $5.15 billion a year earlier. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $154 million from $137 million, while restructuring and other charges decreased to $3 million from $86 million. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Quote Steelmaking revenues increased 5.9% year over year to $5.05 million from $4.8 billion. The segment generated a cash margin of $349 million, up sharply from $138 million in the year-ago quarter, reflecting stronger selling prices and improved cost performance. The average net selling price per net ton of steel products was $1,124, up 10.7% from $1,015 a year earlier. The metric was above the consensus estimate of $1,109. External sales volumes for steel products totaled 4.025 million net tons, down 6.2% from 4.290 million net tons in the prior-year quarter. The figure missed the consensus estimate of 4.11 million net tons. Cleveland-Cliffs ended the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $70 million, up from $57 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt stood at $7.7 billion compared with $7.3 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. The company had total liquidity of $3.1 billion as of June 30, 2026. Cleveland-Cliffs expects third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million, more than double the second-quarter result. Management also expects fourth-quarter EBITDA to exceed its third-quarter guidance as average selling prices, shipment volumes and costs continue to move in a favorable direction. CLF maintained its full-year 2026 steel shipment guidance of approximately 16.5-17 million net tons. The company continues to project capital expenditures of about $700 million, SG&A expenses of approximately $575 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of roughly $1.1 billion. Cash pension and other post-employment benefit payments and contributions remain projected at…Read full documentShow less
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted loss of 20 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 21 cents and the year-ago loss of 51 cents. Revenues rose 5.9% year over year to $5.2 billion and surpassed the consensus estimate of $5.1 billion by 1.9%. Higher steel pricing supported the top line and margin improvement, although steel shipment volumes declined from the prior-year quarter. Consolidated cost of goods sold declined to $5.1 billion from $5.15 billion a year earlier. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $154 million from $137 million, while restructuring and other charges decreased to $3 million from $86 million. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Quote Steelmaking revenues increased 5.9% year over year to $5.05 million from $4.8 billion. The segment generated a cash margin of $349 million, up sharply from $138 million in the year-ago quarter, reflecting stronger selling prices and improved cost performance. The average net selling price per net ton of steel products was $1,124, up 10.7% from $1,015 a year earlier. The metric was above the consensus estimate of $1,109. External sales volumes for steel products totaled 4.025 million net tons, down 6.2% from 4.290 million net tons in the prior-year quarter. The figure missed the consensus estimate of 4.11 million net tons. Cleveland-Cliffs ended the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $70 million, up from $57 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt stood at $7.7 billion compared with $7.3 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. The company had total liquidity of $3.1 billion as of June 30, 2026. Cleveland-Cliffs expects third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million, more than double the second-quarter result. Management also expects fourth-quarter EBITDA to exceed its third-quarter guidance as average selling prices, shipment volumes and costs continue to move in a favorable direction. CLF maintained its full-year 2026 steel shipment guidance of approximately 16.5-17 million net tons. The company continues to project capital expenditures of about $700 million, SG&A expenses of approximately $575 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of roughly $1.1 billion. Cash pension and other post-employment benefit payments and contributions remain projected at approximately $125 million. Management expects second-half earnings performance to be the company’s strongest since 2021 and believes it can reach its leverage target of less than 2.5 times debt to EBITDA by this time next year. CLF’s shares have lost 4.2% in the past year against the industry’s rise of 60.9%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research CLF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Some other top-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, Kronos Worldwide, Inc. KRO and Avient Corporation AVNT. Carpenter Technology is slated to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $10.58 per share, indicating 41.44% year-over-year growth. CRS sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Kronos is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KRO’s second-quarter loss per share is pegged at 33 cents, indicating 65.63% year-over-year growth. KRO flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 at present. Avient is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6. The consensus estimate for AVNT’s earnings per share is pegged at $3.08. AVNT presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) : Free Stock Analysis Report Kronos Worldwide Inc (KRO) : Free Stock Analysis Report Avient Corporation (AVNT) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-23Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Moby
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here. Management attributes the Q2 EBITDA tripling to the materialization of three strategic pillars: automotive volume recovery, footprint optimization, and the expiration of uneconomic legacy supply contracts. Automotive shipments reached a two-year high, allowing finishing lines to return to healthy utilization levels and improving unit cost absorption. The company credits Section 232 and recent trade enforcement for accelerating domestic manufacturing investment and eliminating 'escape valves' for transshipped steel from Mexico and Canada. Management asserts that Cleveland-Cliffs has become the 'supplier of choice' for the U.S. auto sector, claiming market share gains from both domestic integrated competitors and mini-mills. Operational efficiency is being enhanced through AI-based initiatives with Palantir, aimed at optimizing mill schedules and reducing maintenance-related downtime. The company successfully transitioned back to positive free cash flow, supported by a richer product mix and the realization of pricing lags from previous quarters. Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA is guided to approximately $575 million, a projected doubling of Q2 results driven by the convergence of higher prices, lower costs, and increased shipping volumes. Management expects a $500 million year-over-year EBITDA improvement in 2027 specifically from resetting fixed-price contracts at significantly higher current market levels. The company targets a leverage ratio below 2.5x by mid-2027, utilizing cash flow from operations and approximately $400 million in expected property sale proceeds. Future capacity restarts, specifically at the Dearborn blast furnace, are contingent on automotive OEMs demonstrating long-term commitment to domestic production over imports. Capital allocation will prioritize debt paydown as the primary objective until leverage targets are met, with no immediate refinancing needs until 2029. Management flagged that Canadian finishing operations at Stelco are lagging and may face footprint changes if the Canadian government does not implement stronger trade protections. The company rejected recent offers for HBI and FPT assets, stating that prospective buyers' valuations fell short of the assets' internal strategic va…Read full documentShow less
Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here. Management attributes the Q2 EBITDA tripling to the materialization of three strategic pillars: automotive volume recovery, footprint optimization, and the expiration of uneconomic legacy supply contracts. Automotive shipments reached a two-year high, allowing finishing lines to return to healthy utilization levels and improving unit cost absorption. The company credits Section 232 and recent trade enforcement for accelerating domestic manufacturing investment and eliminating 'escape valves' for transshipped steel from Mexico and Canada. Management asserts that Cleveland-Cliffs has become the 'supplier of choice' for the U.S. auto sector, claiming market share gains from both domestic integrated competitors and mini-mills. Operational efficiency is being enhanced through AI-based initiatives with Palantir, aimed at optimizing mill schedules and reducing maintenance-related downtime. The company successfully transitioned back to positive free cash flow, supported by a richer product mix and the realization of pricing lags from previous quarters. Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA is guided to approximately $575 million, a projected doubling of Q2 results driven by the convergence of higher prices, lower costs, and increased shipping volumes. Management expects a $500 million year-over-year EBITDA improvement in 2027 specifically from resetting fixed-price contracts at significantly higher current market levels. The company targets a leverage ratio below 2.5x by mid-2027, utilizing cash flow from operations and approximately $400 million in expected property sale proceeds. Future capacity restarts, specifically at the Dearborn blast furnace, are contingent on automotive OEMs demonstrating long-term commitment to domestic production over imports. Capital allocation will prioritize debt paydown as the primary objective until leverage targets are met, with no immediate refinancing needs until 2029. Management flagged that Canadian finishing operations at Stelco are lagging and may face footprint changes if the Canadian government does not implement stronger trade protections. The company rejected recent offers for HBI and FPT assets, stating that prospective buyers' valuations fell short of the assets' internal strategic value to Cliffs' iron-making capabilities. A major upgrade to the Butler Works induction reheat furnace is underway, scheduled for 2028 completion to increase grain-oriented electrical steel capacity by 25%. Negotiations with the United Steelworkers (USW) have commenced, with management describing the early dialogue as constructive and productive. One stock. Nvidia-level potential. 30M+ investors trust Moby to find it first. Get the pick. Tap here. Management expects a 'foregone conclusion' of higher prices for non-auto contracts as the negotiation starting point has moved from the $800 level to approximately $1,150. For automotive, the company intends to be more selective and play for higher prices, citing a lack of viable domestic or imported alternatives for high-end automotive steel. CEO Goncalves stated he will not restart the 2-million-ton furnace until OEMs provide 'conviction' that they will not revert to importing or sourcing from Mexico. The company is comfortable maintaining tight backlogs for clients until long-term domestic sourcing commitments are solidified. Discussions remain friendly but management emphasized they are not 'desperate' to transact and will only proceed if valuation and structure meet their thresholds. The company noted that their HBI assets have become more valuable internally for 'juicing' iron-making capabilities during periods of high demand.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-23Cleveland-Cliffs shares jump as upbeat third-quarter forecast outweighs earnings miss (NYSE:CLF)
InvestorsHub
Cleveland-Cliffs shares jump as upbeat third-quarter forecast outweighs earnings miss (NYSE:CLF)
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) shares climbed nearly 7% in premarket trading on Thursday after the steel producer issued a stronger-than-expected outlook for the third quarter, despite reporting a slight earnings miss for the second quarter. Investors focused on the company’s improving profitability and expectations for a significant increase in EBITDA during the current quarter. Cleveland-Cliffs reported an adjusted loss of $0.20 per share for the second quarter, slightly below analysts’ expectation of a $0.19 per share loss. Revenue totalled $5.2 billion, matching market forecasts and increasing 9% from $4.8 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $286 million during the quarter, more than tripling from $95 million reported in the first quarter, reflecting improving operating performance. The company forecast adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million for the third quarter of 2026, more than double the level achieved in the previous quarter and well ahead of analysts’ expectations. Cleveland-Cliffs also reaffirmed its full-year steel shipment guidance of between 16.5 million and 17.0 million net tons. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lourenco Goncalves said, “The second quarter marked another step in returning to the earnings power this company is capable of and has demonstrated in the past.” He added, “Even with extended maintenance outages in April and May, our second quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the Q1 level and Q3 adjusted EBITDA is expected to more than double Q2.” Steel product sales volumes reached 4.0 million net tons during the quarter, with the automotive sector accounting for 29% of the company’s direct sales. The average net selling price increased to $1,124 per ton from $1,048 in the first quarter, reflecting stronger pricing across the business. Goncalves also said the U.S. steel market continues to strengthen, supported by improving customer demand, lower import volumes and longer delivery lead times. Cleveland-Cliffs ended the quarter with liquidity of $3.1 billion as of June 30, 2026. Management said it remains on track to reduce its leverage ratio to below 2.5 times debt-to-EBITDA within the next year, highlighting continued confidence in the company’s balance sheet and earnings recovery. Cleveland-Cliffs stock price
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-23Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
MarketBeat
Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Interested in Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Cleveland-Cliffs reported a sharp earnings recovery in Q2, returning to positive free cash flow and posting adjusted EBITDA of $286 million, its best quarterly result in two years. Management expects an even stronger second half, with Q3 EBITDA guidance around $575 million. Improving automotive demand and better pricing are driving the outlook. Shipments to auto customers hit a two-year high, and the company expects higher steel prices, lower costs and increased shipment volumes to lift both Q3 and Q4 results. Debt reduction is the top capital priority as Cleveland-Cliffs uses free cash flow and planned asset-sale proceeds to pay down leverage, targeting below 2.5x by this time next year. The company also sees a major 2027 EBITDA boost from higher fixed-price contract resets. Tariffs Rose: 1 Steelmaker Thrived, 1 Still Struggles Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) said it returned to positive free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 and expects a substantially stronger second half of the year, driven by higher steel prices, improved automotive demand, lower costs and higher shipment volumes. Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves told analysts that the company’s second-quarter results showed “tangible evidence” of the earnings recovery management has been forecasting. Cleveland-Cliffs reported adjusted EBITDA of $286 million in the quarter, which President and CFO Celso Goncalves said was the company’s best quarterly result in two years. The figure was roughly triple the company’s first-quarter adjusted EBITDA, according to management. → Could Truth API Become Trump Media’s First Meaningful Revenue Driver? Cleveland-Cliffs Sinks After Earnings—Is the Selloff Overdone? “During the second quarter, we returned to positive free cash flow and tripled our adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter,” Lourenco Goncalves said. “While the second quarter represents meaningful progress, it still understates where this company is headed over the coming quarters.” Cleveland-Cliffs issued third-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $575 million, which Celso Goncalves said would represent the company’s strongest quarter in three years. Management said the expected improvement reflects a convergence of higher prices, lower costs and increased shipping volumes. → 3 Photonics Companies Making Quantum Te…Read full documentShow less
Interested in Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Cleveland-Cliffs reported a sharp earnings recovery in Q2, returning to positive free cash flow and posting adjusted EBITDA of $286 million, its best quarterly result in two years. Management expects an even stronger second half, with Q3 EBITDA guidance around $575 million. Improving automotive demand and better pricing are driving the outlook. Shipments to auto customers hit a two-year high, and the company expects higher steel prices, lower costs and increased shipment volumes to lift both Q3 and Q4 results. Debt reduction is the top capital priority as Cleveland-Cliffs uses free cash flow and planned asset-sale proceeds to pay down leverage, targeting below 2.5x by this time next year. The company also sees a major 2027 EBITDA boost from higher fixed-price contract resets. Tariffs Rose: 1 Steelmaker Thrived, 1 Still Struggles Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) said it returned to positive free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 and expects a substantially stronger second half of the year, driven by higher steel prices, improved automotive demand, lower costs and higher shipment volumes. Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves told analysts that the company’s second-quarter results showed “tangible evidence” of the earnings recovery management has been forecasting. Cleveland-Cliffs reported adjusted EBITDA of $286 million in the quarter, which President and CFO Celso Goncalves said was the company’s best quarterly result in two years. The figure was roughly triple the company’s first-quarter adjusted EBITDA, according to management. → Could Truth API Become Trump Media’s First Meaningful Revenue Driver? Cleveland-Cliffs Sinks After Earnings—Is the Selloff Overdone? “During the second quarter, we returned to positive free cash flow and tripled our adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter,” Lourenco Goncalves said. “While the second quarter represents meaningful progress, it still understates where this company is headed over the coming quarters.” Cleveland-Cliffs issued third-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $575 million, which Celso Goncalves said would represent the company’s strongest quarter in three years. Management said the expected improvement reflects a convergence of higher prices, lower costs and increased shipping volumes. → 3 Photonics Companies Making Quantum Tech Possible Cleveland-Cliffs Breaks to New Highs on Earnings, More Upside? Second-quarter steel shipments were just over 4 million tons, down sequentially because of maintenance outages and stronger automotive demand, which management said carries longer lead times. Cleveland-Cliffs expects third-quarter shipments to exceed 4.3 million tons, citing a strong order book and extended backlogs. Pricing also improved during the second quarter. Celso Goncalves said the company’s average selling price increased by $76 per ton from the prior quarter, helped by pricing lags beginning to flow through and a richer product mix tied to automotive demand. He said Cleveland-Cliffs expects its average selling price to rise by another $55 per ton in the third quarter. → AeroVironment’s Stock Is Down, But Drone Demand Is Taking Off On costs, management said maintenance outages and inventory lag lifted unit costs in the second quarter, but those headwinds are expected to ease. Celso Goncalves said unit costs are expected to decline by $10 per ton in the third quarter, while Lourenco Goncalves said further cost improvements are expected in the fourth quarter as production levels rise and mill schedules become more stable. The company also said it expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to exceed third-quarter levels, assuming the current hot-rolled coil futures curve. Management said this expectation already factors in normal holiday-related seasonal slowdowns. Management highlighted improving automotive steel demand as a major contributor to the company’s outlook. Lourenco Goncalves said Cleveland-Cliffs’ shipments to automotive customers during the second quarter were the highest in two years. He also said finishing lines that had been running at suboptimal utilization levels over the last several years are now operating at healthier levels, with a favorable impact on costs. Cleveland-Cliffs said it has received top supplier awards this year from both Toyota and General Motors. Lourenco Goncalves said the company remains “the supplier of choice for the automotive sector in the United States.” During the question-and-answer session, Lourenco Goncalves said about half of the expected 300,000-ton shipment increase in the third quarter would come from the improved automotive market, with the other half coming from non-automotive flat-rolled steel. Asked about the potential restart of the Dearborn blast furnace, Goncalves said the company has the capacity and technology to supply more automotive steel, but would need stronger conviction from automakers that production will remain in the United States. He said the Dearborn furnace represents “more than 2 million tons” of potential capacity. Cleveland-Cliffs said upcoming fixed-price contract resets could provide a significant lift in 2027. Celso Goncalves said the company expects a $500 million year-over-year EBITDA improvement from resetting a large portion of its fixed-price contracts at higher levels. Lourenco Goncalves said negotiations for non-automotive contracts begin in earnest in the second half of the year and typically conclude by late November or early December. He said last year’s contracts were negotiated against a much lower pricing backdrop, with prevailing prices around $800 per ton or less, compared with recent levels around $1,150 per ton or more. “The expectation that these contracts will reset for much higher prices are just a foregone conclusion,” he said. On automotive contracts, Goncalves said Cleveland-Cliffs plans to be more selective and seek higher prices, citing its position with U.S. automakers and tighter trade enforcement. Celso Goncalves said Cleveland-Cliffs generated positive free cash flow in the second quarter after two years of negative free cash flow and expects the trend to continue. He said second-quarter working capital was a release of about $55 million, driven by reduced inventory and a slight build in accounts payable, partially offset by accounts receivable. The company said it is now under contract on all major property sales, with earnest money in hand in each case. Cleveland-Cliffs expects the bulk of the $400 million in proceeds from those sales to arrive in the second half of 2026. Management said debt paydown is the company’s top capital allocation priority. Celso Goncalves said free cash flow and asset-sale proceeds will be used to reduce debt, with the goal of reaching leverage below 2.5 times by this time next year if current market conditions hold. “Until we get to our leverage target, we’re not going to prioritize any other type of capital allocation,” he said. Lourenco Goncalves repeatedly emphasized the importance of U.S. trade policy, particularly Section 232, which he called “the single most effective industrial policy implemented in our country in a generation.” He credited trade enforcement with supporting domestic steel utilization, manufacturing investment and automotive reshoring. The company also discussed Canada and Stelco, which Cleveland-Cliffs acquired. Lourenco Goncalves said Stelco’s results have improved and are contributing to the company’s second-half guidance. He said Canadian hot-rolled steel pricing has improved as the pricing gap with the U.S. has narrowed, but galvanized steel in Canada remains under pressure. He warned that the competitiveness of Stelco’s galvanizing lines in Hamilton could be at risk without further trade protections. On strategic initiatives, Celso Goncalves said offers received for assets such as HBI and FPT have fallen short of Cleveland-Cliffs’ value threshold. He said discussions with POSCO remain friendly and ongoing, but Cleveland-Cliffs does not have a deadline and is not under pressure to complete a transaction. The company also noted that it has begun negotiations with the United Steelworkers union to renew its collective bargaining agreement. Lourenco Goncalves said the process is off to “a constructive and productive start.” Cleveland-Cliffs also announced that Celso Goncalves has been appointed to the company’s board of directors as president and CFO. Lourenco Goncalves said the move reflects the role Celso has already been playing and marks “the early stages of a transition in leadership,” while adding that he plans to continue leading the company for several more years. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is a leading North American producer of iron ore pellets and flat-rolled steel products. Tracing its roots to 1847, the company has evolved from an iron-ore mining concern in the Great Lakes region into a fully integrated steelmaker. Today, Cleveland-Cliffs operates iron ore mining complexes in Michigan and Minnesota as well as steelmaking and finishing facilities across the United States. The company's integrated platform begins with direct control of key raw materials, including iron ore and scrap, and extends through every stage of steel production. This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected]. The article "Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat. View MarketBeat's top stocks for July 2026.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-23Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth and Positive ...
GuruFocus.com
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth and Positive ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Adjusted EBITDA: $286 million in Q2, tripled from Q1; guidance of $575 million for Q3. Steel Shipments: Over 4 million tonnes in Q2; expected to exceed 4.3 million tonnes in Q3. Average Selling Price: Increased by $76 per ton in Q2; expected to rise another $55 per ton in Q3. Unit Costs: Expected $10 per ton reduction in Q3. Free Cash Flow: Returned to positive in Q2 after two years of negative cash flow. Property Sales Proceeds: Expected $400 million in the second half of the year. Leverage Target: Aiming for sub 2.5 times leverage by next year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with CLF. Is CLF fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: July 23, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) returned to positive free cash flow and tripled its adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter. The company expects to more than double its Q2 EBITDA in Q3, with a guidance of $575 million. Automotive demand has significantly improved, with shipments to automotive clients being the highest in the last two years. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) has received top supplier awards from both Toyota and General Motors, highlighting its strong position in the automotive sector. The company is benefiting from favorable trade policies, such as Section 232, which have improved domestic steel utilization and manufacturing investment. Q2 results were impacted by maintenance outages and lagged contracts, which limited the demonstration of the company's full asset capabilities. Stelco's finishing side in Canada is still lagging, posing a risk to the competitiveness of galvanizing lines in Hamilton. The company faces challenges in the Canadian market due to insufficient measures to protect fair trade, affecting future competitiveness. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) is under pressure to transact with prospective counterparties, which has affected valuation discussions. The company is still negotiating with the United Steelworkers Union to renew its collective bargaining agreement, which could impact labor relations. Q: Can you provide more details on the resetting of non-auto fixed-price contracts and expectations for auto contracts next year? A: Lourenco Goncalves, CEO, explained that the resetting of non-auto…Read full documentShow less
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Adjusted EBITDA: $286 million in Q2, tripled from Q1; guidance of $575 million for Q3. Steel Shipments: Over 4 million tonnes in Q2; expected to exceed 4.3 million tonnes in Q3. Average Selling Price: Increased by $76 per ton in Q2; expected to rise another $55 per ton in Q3. Unit Costs: Expected $10 per ton reduction in Q3. Free Cash Flow: Returned to positive in Q2 after two years of negative cash flow. Property Sales Proceeds: Expected $400 million in the second half of the year. Leverage Target: Aiming for sub 2.5 times leverage by next year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with CLF. Is CLF fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: July 23, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) returned to positive free cash flow and tripled its adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter. The company expects to more than double its Q2 EBITDA in Q3, with a guidance of $575 million. Automotive demand has significantly improved, with shipments to automotive clients being the highest in the last two years. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) has received top supplier awards from both Toyota and General Motors, highlighting its strong position in the automotive sector. The company is benefiting from favorable trade policies, such as Section 232, which have improved domestic steel utilization and manufacturing investment. Q2 results were impacted by maintenance outages and lagged contracts, which limited the demonstration of the company's full asset capabilities. Stelco's finishing side in Canada is still lagging, posing a risk to the competitiveness of galvanizing lines in Hamilton. The company faces challenges in the Canadian market due to insufficient measures to protect fair trade, affecting future competitiveness. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) is under pressure to transact with prospective counterparties, which has affected valuation discussions. The company is still negotiating with the United Steelworkers Union to renew its collective bargaining agreement, which could impact labor relations. Q: Can you provide more details on the resetting of non-auto fixed-price contracts and expectations for auto contracts next year? A: Lourenco Goncalves, CEO, explained that the resetting of non-auto contracts will occur in the second half of the year, with expectations for higher prices due to the current pricing environment. For auto contracts, Cleveland-Cliffs is positioned as a key supplier, and they anticipate resetting these contracts at higher prices as well. Q: What is the expected impact of improved automotive market conditions on shipment volumes in the third quarter? A: Lourenco Goncalves, CEO, stated that about half of the 300,000-ton shipment uplift expected in the third quarter is attributed to the improved automotive market, with the other half from non-automotive sectors. Q: Can you provide insights into the Canadian spot pricing and its impact on Stelco's performance? A: Lourenco Goncalves, CEO, noted that the pricing gap in Canada has closed, particularly for hot-rolled steel, due to government actions. However, galvanized steel pricing remains under pressure. The company is considering adjustments to its Canadian operations to optimize financial performance. Q: What assumptions are included in the guidance for Q3 2026 and 2027, particularly regarding pricing and costs? A: Celso Goncalves, CFO, mentioned that the guidance is based on the current US HRC forward curve for pricing and includes benefits from fixed-price contract renewals. Cost assumptions are consistent with current levels, with no significant changes expected. Q: What are the expectations for debt paydown and capital allocation priorities? A: Celso Goncalves, CFO, emphasized that debt reduction is the top capital allocation priority, with plans to use free cash flow and proceeds from asset sales to achieve leverage targets. The company has no immediate refinancing needs, with maturities pushed out to 2029. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-23Cleveland-Cliffs Shares Surge on Second-Quarter Beat, Upbeat Outlook
MT Newswires
Cleveland-Cliffs Shares Surge on Second-Quarter Beat, Upbeat Outlook
Cleveland-Cliffs' (CLF) second-quarter results surpassed Wall Street's views, while the steelmaker i
TranscriptFY2026 Q22026-07-23FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 96 paragraphs
FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Daryl, and I am your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Cleveland-Cliffs' second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. The company reminds you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the safe harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although the company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially.
Important factors that can cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q and news releases filed with the SEC, which are available on the company's website. Today's conference call is also available and being broadcast at clevelandcliffs.com. At the conclusion of the call, it will be archived on the website and available for replay. The company will also discuss results excluding certain special items. Reconciliation for Regulation G purposes can be found on the earnings release, which was published this morning. At this time, I would like to introduce Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
Thank you, Daryl, and good morning to everyone. After several quarters of talking about the future earnings power of this company, we can finally point to tangible evidence that the progression we have been forecasting is now reality. During the second quarter, we returned to positive free cash flow and tripled our adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter. While the second quarter represents meaningful progress, it still understates where this company is headed over the coming quarters. Q2 maintenance outages and our lagged contracts still did not allow us to demonstrate the full capability of our asset base. That will be more visible in Q3, in which we are expecting to more than double our Q2 EBITDA. Due to our health backlog and improved pricing, the second half of 2026 will look substantially better than the first half of the year.
With our third quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of $575 million, we have a situation where higher prices, lower costs, and higher shipping volumes will all be converging at once. Weather-related impacts are behind us. Finishing lines are full, and pricing remains strong. Better yet, at the current curve for steel, we expect the fourth quarter to further outperform the third quarter in adjusted EBITDA, with even more improvements to come in 2027. When profits were below our standard at this time last year, I laid out three key areas of improvement that would bring us back to a respectable level. Automotive volume recovered, footprint optimization, and the expiration of the uneconomic slab supply contract we had in place with ArcelorMittal Calvert. These three factors have all now materialized, and with stronger pricing, the improvements we see are even better than previously forecasted. Automotive demand deserves special mention.
Cliffs continues to be the supplier of choice for the automotive sector in the United States, illustrated by the fact that we have received the top supplier award from both Toyota and General Motors so far this year. During the quarter, our shipments of steel to our automotive clients were the highest in the last two years. Our finishing lines, which run at suboptimal utilization levels for the last couple of years, are now back to running at a healthy level of utilization with a favorable impact on our costs. Thanks to our multi-year contracting strategy, the ongoing reshoring of automotive production into the United States, and major supply chain disruption suffered by competitors, our automotive coating volumes are back to the strong levels we saw back in 2023.
This improving situation in both steel and automotive demand can be attributed to the long overdue trade policies we now have in place in the United States. Section 232 has been the single most effective industrial policy implemented in our country in a generation. We applaud President Trump, Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer for their conviction in these policies. The results are visible. Manufacturing investment is accelerating. Domestic steel utilization is improving. Capital is being allocated to U.S.-based production rather than offshore production. The reshoring movement that's now occurring throughout American manufacturing simply would not be happening at its current scale without Section 232 and the enforced mechanisms that support it. We have long argued that America cannot maintain a strong manufacturing base without maintaining a strong steel industry.
Today, that argument is no longer theoretical and has been validated by real-world investment decisions made by some of the largest companies in the world into automotive production, electrical infrastructure, and defense-related applications, among several other sectors. All of those investments require steel, and Cleveland-Cliffs is uniquely positioned to meet that demand, given the breadth of our product portfolio and our domestic footprint. Besides their great success in combating illegal trade of dumped steel and steel derivatives into the United States, the U.S. government has been instrumental in making our industry more energy efficient via grants from the Department of Energy. Our Butler Works induction reheat furnace upgrade continues to progress well, and upon completion in 2028, will provide us with the ability to supply more tons of the high-end, grain-oriented electrical steels our country needs.
In addition, we have made major progress on the re-scoping of the Middletown project in compliance with the Trump administration's energy dominance goals. The Middletown blast furnace is due for a reline by 2030, and this DOE grant will allow us to go further in optimizing the furnace and maximizing energy efficiency by capturing and using blast furnace gas to generate electricity on-site. We expect to make a public announcement in the next month or so. As discussions surrounding USMCA continue, every outcome that has been publicly discussed would be a positive outcome for domestic steel producers. Whether the final result includes stronger melt and pour requirements, tighter enforcement of rules of origin, increased verification requirements, additional scrutiny of transshipped material, or stronger content requirements for automotive production, each one of those outcomes favors steel produced in North America by companies with meaningful domestic operations.
We are uniquely positioned because we are here in the U.S. and we are miners, pellet producers, iron makers, steel makers, and downstream manufacturers. Therefore, every policy that emphasizes domestic content, domestic production, and domestic manufacturing directly benefits Cleveland-Cliffs. A similar trade dynamic applies to Canada. We were pleased to see the extension of the Canadian tariff rate quota system through June of 2027. Canada has struggled with many of the same challenges faced by the United States prior to President Trump. The world has way too much steelmaking capacity, and certain countries continue to export that excess capacity at prices disconnected from economic reality. Our Stelco results have improved, and their contribution to Cleveland-Cliffs is part of our second half improved guidance.
While we have seen improvements on the hot roll side, which the vast majority of what we do in Canada, on the finishing side, Stelco is still lagging. Without further measures to protect fair trade in Canada, the future competitiveness of our galvanizing lines in Hamilton is at risk. We continue to defend our point of view with the Canadian government officials, asking them to do what is right to protect the steel industry in Canada, just as our American government has done here in the United States. Extending the TRQ system through June of 2027 is an important step toward protecting Canadian jobs and creating a healthier North American steel market, but it's not sufficient. If Canada really wants to have a domestic steel industry, more needs to be done. One other matter to highlight in today's call is our Cleveland-Cliffs safety record, including Stelco.
I don't talk publicly about safety very often, but we have worked very diligently since the two acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal back in 2020 to implement in our steel plants the same level of Cleveland-Cliffs safety standards we put in place in our mines since we took office in 2014. In fact, our total recordable injury rate for the last three years has been best in class. Safety is also good business practice. Because of our sustained safety performance over multiple years, we are now seeing meaningful reduction in workers' compensation expense and other related costs. One important item to mention today, we have officially kicked off negotiations with the United Steelworkers Union to renew our collective bargain agreement, and I'm pleased to say that the process is off to a constructive and productive start.
We are approaching these negotiations like we always do, with a shared commitment to maintaining a competitive and sustainable business while continuing to create opportunities for our employees. Based on the dialogue to date, we are confident that we can reach an agreement that strengthens our partnership and delivers meaningful benefit for both Cliffs and the USW. Before turning it over, I would like to recognize Celso's appointment to our board of directors as President and CFO that was announced this morning. This appointment formally reflects the role that he has already been playing in driving our strategy and delivering important financial accomplishments over the past decade. Celso has been an indispensable partner to me and a trusted leader across our organization, and this promotion better reflects his role. It also marks the early stages of a transition in leadership.
I'm not going anywhere anytime soon, and I plan to lead this company for several more years with Celso as my right hand. With that introduction, I will turn it over to him.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. First, I'm grateful for the opportunity and the responsibility that the board has given to me. I'm excited about where we sit today, especially considering the amount of improvement we have seen over the last year, combined with our promising outlook. There's a lot more that we can improve upon, and I'm confident that we can make it happen, as the need for integrated steel making in North America is undeniable. Turning to our quarterly results, our adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $286 million, our best quarter in two years. Second quarter shipments were just over 4 million tons, down sequentially from the previous quarter due to the maintenance outages we underwent during the quarter, as well as improved automotive demand, which comes with longer lead times.
We expect to see steel shipment volumes above 4.3 million tons in the third quarter, as the order book remains strong and backlogs are extended. Pricing also continued its steady climb upward. Our average selling price increased by $76 per ton as pricing lags started to materialize, and we sold a richer product mix, thanks to our automotive-heavy order book. This climb will continue into Q3, as we have visibility on pricing on nearly every ton we will ship in the next quarter. Based on this, we expect our average price to increase another $55 per ton in Q3. HRC spot pricing has, of course, played the largest role in our improvements, but the trajectory of the cold rolled coil price, which many of our contracts are linked to, has even further outpaced hot rolled coil prices over the past several months.
This is another factor illustrating the importance of trade policy, as it has driven our pricing realizations to higher than originally expected levels. As for unit costs, as previously guided, the inventory lag effect from last quarter and our maintenance outages pushed costs up quarter-over-quarter. With that behind us, we should see a $10 per ton reduction in costs into Q3. After two years of negative free cash flow, we finally flipped back to positive in the second quarter. We expect this trend to continue going forward. On top of that, we are now under contract on all of our major property sales, with earnest money in our control in all cases. The bulk of the $400 million proceeds from our property sales are expected to come in the second half of this year.
With volume, price, and cost all moving in the right direction into next quarter, we felt it prudent to provide an adjusted EBITDA guide with our results this time because of the magnitude of the change quarter-over-quarter. We expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million in the third quarter, which would be our strongest quarter in three years. With where the curve for HRC stands today, we would expect even further improvement on that figure in the fourth quarter, even with the typical seasonal slowdown we usually see around the holidays. Beyond this, if you ran out the futures curve over the next year, we would expect to hit our leverage target of sub 2.5x by this time next year, as the cash flows generated from both ongoing profit and asset sales will be used to delever over that timeframe.
These are not based on any extraordinary assumptions, as we see achievable opportunities going into 2027 beyond just commodity pricing. We'll have an opportunity in the coming months to reset a large portion of our fixed price contracts substantially higher, which we estimate will represent a $500 million EBITDA improvement year-over-year. We also see a major improvement coming from Stelco based on where its order book is today, as well as further cost reduction opportunities from AI-based initiatives currently being implemented with our partner, Palantir. On the strategic front, one thing that has become increasingly apparent through the multiple processes that we've run is that prospective counterparties approach discussions with the assumption that Cleveland-Cliffs was under pressure to transact. This includes our processes for HBI and FPT, as well as our ongoing dialogue with POSCO.
We went into these processes with the backdrop of foreign companies paying enticing multiples for U.S. industrial assets. These were opportunistic ventures aimed at unlocking value at higher multiples than where we trade at. We understand the replacement cost associated with these operations, and we are well aware what these assets contribute to Cleveland-Cliffs. So far, the offers that we have received related to these processes have fallen short of our value threshold. On top of that, our HBI has become substantially more valuable for us with the strong order book that we have in place. HBI, used in blast furnaces, juices our iron-making capabilities where we are constrained, and we have been able to push more volume through our mills as a result. This will be evident in our third quarter shipping volumes.
Regarding POSCO specifically, discussions still remain friendly and ongoing, but we don't have a deadline on our side. We continue to have constructive dialogue and believe that there are strategic benefits that could be realized, but valuation and structure are important, and we're not desperate to do anything unless these two factors are met by POSCO and acceptable to us. The United States is the best market in the world, and it's not cheap to play in our sandbox. The story today is very simple. Cleveland-Cliffs is entering the strongest earnings environment that we have seen in years, and we are doing so with a better operating footprint in a domestic steel market that remains supported by trade enforcement and manufacturing investment.
There are still low-hanging fruit opportunities, such as fixed price contract resets, that can amplify our position even further. We are anxious to pursue this in the coming months. The factors that have delayed our earnings recovery are largely behind us, while the factors that support future earnings remain firmly in place. With that, let's open up the line for questions.
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for your questions. Our first questions come from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.
Yeah, good morning, Lourenco and Celso. Thanks for the opportunity. I wonder if you can maybe give us a little bit more color on the resetting of the non-auto fixed price contract. Any specific products to which this apply, should that come on January 1st, or it will be throughout the year? If you could maybe also share any light on the auto contracts for next year, any expected reset, higher or flat? That would be quite useful. Thank you.
Good morning, Carlos. Regarding the resetting of the non-automotive contract, it's a process that starts in earnest in the second half of this year. It usually goes through November, early December, will be done for the year. You know the numbers. You know the current scenario on pricing and the futures curve and everything. We negotiated last year contracts in the backdrop of a much lower price environment. Without giving any numbers on that, the expectation that these contracts will reset for much higher prices are just a foregone conclusion. No surprise on that. Regarding automotive. Remember that we are in an environment right now that it's clear after a couple of years of changes in the marketplace and the dynamics of the marketplace, including ownership of more direct competitors, that we are the real deal in supplying automotive clients.
The clients know that, recognize that, and that this time around, there's no more escape valves thanks to the beautiful enforcement of trade policies by the Trump administration. There is no more escape valves in Mexico for transship the steel. There's no more Canada playing at convenience as part of the United States when it's good for Canada, but never when it's good for the United States. All these things changed. Now, or you are here in the United States or you are out. If you are here in the United States, you want to produce cars in the United States, they need to buy from Cleveland-Cliffs. There is no more conversation about mini mills producing automotive steel or going into producing all kinds of automotive steel. This is behind us. There's no more conversations that the other integrated player is at our level. They are not.
We are getting market share from them at will, and, if we want to take all their business, we take all their business. We are in good shape and we are going to play for higher prices. We're going to be more selective, and we are going to reset these numbers higher. That's the bottom line.
Perfect. Just on cost. We saw the guidance for the third quarter. Any early comments on the fourth quarter expectations for cost? Should we maybe bake in another quarter-on-quarter reduction in the fourth quarter, or it's going to be more flattish? Any comments would be great.
Yeah, we expect further improvements. Our momentum is good and we believe that with higher levels of production and more stable and more optimized schedules at the mills, thanks to our work with Palantir, we are going to continue to bring these costs down.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Samuel McKinney with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.
Hey, good morning.
Morning, Samuel.
Hey, you were very clear last quarter, and you reiterated today that automotive OEMs booking more from Cliffs and those production schedules are tight. Of the 300,000 ton shipment uplift you're looking for in the third quarter, how much of that is from the improved automotive market?
I would say half, because that's pretty much what we do every quarter, half automotive, half of the no automotive. As far as light flat rolled carbon steel.
Okay. Maybe for Celso, the positive free cash flow this quarter was more than accounted for by the increase in payables at the end of the second quarter versus the end of the first quarter. Can you provide us some more detail around what drove that spike in payables?
Yeah. Hey, Sam. Payables were largely driven by things like raw materials going up, additional maintenance work and things like that.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Nick Cash with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.
Hi, thank you very much. Good morning, guys, and congratulations Celso. I just wanted to touch on Stelco and Canada for a second. You mentioned the $500 million potential uplift opportunity here from pricing improvement, cost, and volumes. You mentioned, I think on last call that Canadian selling price was at a 40% discount to U.S. price. Based on numbers I've seen recently, it looks like that gap has closed and Canadian prices have moved up actually quite a bit. Is there any chance you'd be able to provide some color on what you're seeing in Canadian spot pricing and, I guess, how much of the $500 million potential uplift is based on today's pricing? I guess, the split between pricing and volumes to get to that $500 million. Thank you.
Volume wise, Nick, we're fine. We're not in a much better spot volume wise. We're maxed out at Stelco. We are producing what we have to produce. What happened over there is that the pricing gap has closed. The Canadian government made some moves, insufficient moves, but moves in the right direction. Things are getting better pricing wise over there, particularly for hot rolled steel. We haven't seen yet the same type of impact with the galvanized steel over there. That said, we are very comfortable producing hot band, and we believe that making more hot band to supply the Canadian market is the way to go. If the Canadian market does not understand that galvanized continues to be under pressure and dump the galvanized steel, destroying the market, I have used all the arguments I could have used to explain that to them.
Look, we are going to do what's good for Cliffs and for the Cliffs shareholders. If I need to make any changes in the Canadian footprint, it will be all affecting galvanized and producing more hot rolls. That will have consequence for employment in Canada. We will have a positive financial impact on Stelco and on Cleveland-Cliffs. That's not something that we have decided yet. I'm still watching to see what's going to happen. Our guidance is based on what we're booking out in September.
That's great. Thanks, Lourenco. I'll pass it on.
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Thank you, operator, good morning, Lourenco and Celso. Nice to hear from you both. Celso, congratulations on the promotion. If I could ask on the guidance, just looking further out, if I'm understanding or inferring from some comments you made, Celso, the Q3 2026 and 2027 guidance, is it basically assuming the U.S. HRC forward curve for pricing? Would that include for the fixed price contract resets? Just to follow up on that, what assumptions are baked in to unit costs for improvements in Q4 and 2027?
Hey, Lawson. Thanks for the comments. We felt it prudent to give a more detailed guide this time, just given the magnitude of the improvements that we see. There's nothing crazy being baked in there. Pricing wise, it's largely just the curve. We're assuming the positive benefits that we see from the fixed price contract renewals and things like that. It's all very realistic, and we have visibility into it. We know the cost trajectory. We know where pricing is expected to be. We have other assumptions like coal, energy, and other costs effectively consistent. We have no reason to think otherwise at this point, we feel pretty good about the guide.
That's very helpful. If I could ask then a follow-up on the Q2 results. With free cash flow, there was a real positive working capital benefit, particularly on accounts payable. Could you provide a little color on what that benefit was about and whether that could be maintained going forward, or would you expect any reversals going forward?
Yeah. As it relates to working capital, Q2 was a release of around $55 million, and that was driven by reduction in inventory and a slight build in AP offset by a little bit of AR. I think we talked a little bit about, as we mentioned, on the reasons why AP went up. Going forward, working capital for Q3 is likely going to be a slight build as pricing continues to increase. It's a little too early to tell how significant of a build it could be, that's what we see going forward into Q3.
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.
Hi, good morning, Lourenco and Celso. Also congrats, Celso. Appreciate all the color thus far on the call. I had a question on the U.S. auto market and realizing you're potentially gaining share and so forth, but considering the announcements from some of your customers to reshore, how should we think about your market opportunity in terms of unit volumes in 2027, 2028, and what that means for maybe uplift in terms of your output to capture those increased market size?
Bill, we have the capacity, we have the technology, and we have the respect of every single client we have. Keep in mind, we got this year, once again, the Supplier of the Year award from General Motors, the only steel producer getting this award this year here in the U.S. We also got the international company, Toyota, giving us the same award. I forgot the exact name of the award, but it's the top award a steel company in a given country can get. That's the recognition we have from these folks. At this point, there's no more conversation who is who. We are number one, period, full stop. We know how to supply automotive. We don't need help from anyone to help us get better. We are good enough by ourselves.
We have the best team to handle the automotive business in the U.S. under the leadership of Dan Gordon. Between Dan Gordon, Mike Hrosik, and myself, everybody knows who is who in the automotive business here in the U.S. That said, we still have one blast furnace in spare at Dearborn, Michigan. I don't need to explain. Dearborn, Michigan, inside the Ford Rouge complex, we are really able to produce automotive steels over there. We have more capacity to supply automotive. The Trump administration knows that. I shared our potential with the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick. We support the Trump administration moves toward reshoring manufacturing. They are doing the business of the American people, and we're right behind to make sure that as every single move that they make will be backed by Cleveland-Cliffs, and we'll be there for them.
That's how we work, and that's how we will continue to make money for the shareholders.
I appreciate that comment, Lourenco. Maybe following up on the second part of Lawson's question, just to get a sense of the variables for cost in 2027. Potentially, I'm thinking increased utilization, potentially. It sounds like raw materials, you're not expecting any headwinds. Are there any other inflationary costs to consider? Maybe on the Palantir side, you talked about some improvement this year. Do you have line of sight for any cost improvements from your work with them concerning maybe the next 6-18 months out? Any additional color would be helpful.
Well, the very first thing is some changes in maintenance practices and the move toward higher utilization of our equipment, better and more efficient production planning. All these things that are going on inside the company right now, they are starting to bear fruit, and we will continue to see these things positively impacting our costs. We do have a reline at one of our blast furnaces in Burns Harbor coming next year. We're going to get some efficient gains over there as well. In a much smaller scale, but not less important, we are going to be producing more grain-oriented electrical steels. It's a 25% increase on that plant specifically with the completion of our induction furnaces in the hot strip mill of Butler. These are a few of the things that we're doing in order to continue to grow our throughput.
Really appreciate the color. Congrats again, Celso, look forward to following the progress.
Thanks, Bill. Appreciate it.
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, LG and Celso. My question was about capacity restarts. LG, you just mentioned Dearborn. What else do you need to see whether, I assume primarily at Dearborn, but elsewhere to expand capacity, then can you just remind us of the volume uplift that could come from any restarts and how you're thinking about capital intensity? Thanks.
Yeah. Look, that plant is a producer of automotive-grade steel. The more automotive moves production to the United States, the more we are going to get closer to bring back Dearborn. The more they replace aluminum with steel, which they are doing in a very consistent way since the competition set themselves on fire and did it again then again in the last several months. The more they continue to do that, the closer we get there. The more they believe that the Trump administration is not going to go back on anything that they are doing so far. There's absolutely no indication that would happen. I would go one step further. No matter who the next President of the United States will be, any Republican or even a Democrat, I don't see these things being undone.
There's nobody that will come and say, "Oh, you know what? It's a good thing to import steel from China. Let's go ahead and let China go back to their control over the market." President Trump pushed them back, that was in the first mandate. President Biden came and did not change anything, then President Trump came back and made that a lot better with Section 232. Who is going to come back and say, "Let's import steel into this country"? Car manufacturers need to believe that these changes are for real, as much as they believed that the electric vehicle lie was true. If they had applied half of their conviction in electric vehicles to restore production to the United States, Dearborn would be back. Because Dearborn is not back, backlogs are tight for them, and I'll keep them tight.
Once they move in all earnest out of aluminum into steel and backing our proposal of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., that's basically the proposal of the U.S. government, we're going to have Dearborn back. Until they do that, nope.
LG, understood. I appreciate those comments. Maybe just as a follow-up. As we think about the Dearborn restart, should we think about it hinging on auto improving further, or could you make a decision to restart that capacity just to increase HRC production, let's say?
I thought I was clear. We are comfortable with what we have right now for the situation we're seeing right now. Maybe the clients are not comfortable. They are tight. They are running on tighter schedules than they would like to see. There's an easy solution. They need to give me the conviction that I can bring a blast furnace back. We're talking more than 2 million tons. I need the conviction that they will bring back, and they will stay, and they are not going to go back to Mexico or back to Canada or importing steel or producing cars in South Korea. I hate all these things. I want them to produce cars in the U.S., employing Americans. Then I can employ Americans here in the U.S. as well. It's so simple. How can we have consumption without employment?
We're not going to have that. They need people to buy the cars. These people need to have jobs. That's what we're discussing here. It's a lot less on one side, decisions by the company, and much more on a macro level. I believe that the U.S. government has shown very clear what's going to happen next. We are ready to go, but we're not going to go until they are ready to go. I don't feel like they are ready to go. They prefer small increments. That's fine with me. We are showing that we're good at that as well. If almost half of my business in flat-rolled steel is automotive, there's another half that's really pretty damn good as well. We are on plate for shipbuilding, we are on electrical steels for the grid, the only producer of grain-oriented electrical steels.
We are on stainless. We are on a lot of things that make a lot of money for us as well. I can go either way, but our footprint is well-designed for automotive. Automotive coming, automotive executing, we are right there for them.
That's very clear. I really appreciate those comments. My second question was just on debt paydown. Obviously, the outlook is improving, I was wondering if, based on that outlook, kind of what your expectations are for debt paydown in total over the next few quarters, and how much non-operating cash flow the asset sales or any other sources could contribute to that.
Yeah. I think we've been pretty clear that debt paydown is going to be our number one capital allocation priority, we've sort of laid out how much free cash flow we expect to generate next. The debt reduction will be consistent with free cash flow generation. The asset sales obviously juice that even further. Until we get to our leverage target, we're not going to prioritize any other type of capital allocation. As you know.
Understood
We have a balance sheet that we've been very thoughtful about. We've been really proactive on pushing out maturities. We don't have anything maturing until 2029, there's no immediate kind of refi needed at this point. We have a good ABL in place. There's nothing urgent on the balance sheet. It's just a matter of delivering on the results, generating the cash, and paying down the debt and getting to our target.
Understood. Thank you, Celso. Well, guys, plenty of good things to see. Continue. Best of luck.
Nick, just a quick addition to what Celso just said. I usually don't comment on that, but today I have to. The presentation that is loaded in our website following the Q2 results. Every quarter we put a presentation there. I never comment. That presentation is really good and gives a lot of further information on our path to bring back this leverage to a true handle in the next year. I would like to direct, not only you, my friend, but everybody else in the call to take a look on that presentation. There's a lot of work there and a lot of information there that we are making public through the presentation on our path to bring leverage down in an extremely important way, and that will happen the next year or so.
Please spend a little five minutes there just to take a look on that, because you're going to see that we know exactly how to get there and how to use our cash flow to bring back leverage to a two-point something times in the next 12 months.
Sounds good.
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Richard Garchitorena with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Great. Good morning, Lourenco. Congratulations, Celso, and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to touch on the commentary on the guidance and expectations for Q4 better than Q3. What's driving that in terms of different buckets? Are you expecting additional price gains, lower costs? What are your expectations on the volumes? We typically see some seasonality in the fourth quarter. Just curious sort of what's driving the incremental improvements.
Yeah. Richard, welcome back to the business. How long have you been out of this steel business? I haven't seen you in a while.
Thank you.
I assume you are doing something else, Richard.
Well, I was covering the sector. I was actually on the buy side. Yes. I was on the buy side.
Oh, you were in the buy side. Okay.
I mean.
Welcome back to the sell side. Anyway.
Thank you.
Look, because of the way we sell steel, we have a good visibility into volumes. With sometimes a two-month lag, we know what price we're going to be executing, and we also know the volumes and how we're selling to our clients. That's why we have conviction on Q4 as well as we have conviction the number that we gave for Q3. Of course, chances are that we're going to get to a number that will be $5 million more, and we don't consider that a beat. If you do $5 million less, we are not going to expect you guys to say that we missed our own guidance. We are guiding to a number because we want to give you what we have in terms of what we see right now. We have a lot of conviction what we are seeing for Q3.
As far as Q4, we already baked in the fact that around Thanksgiving week, we're going to have less shipments. We also baked in the last week of the year or the last 10 days of the year when business shuts down. All these things are taken into consideration. We expect that these things will happen. We are seeing the appetite of the car manufacturers growing, like I said, growing slowly and probably, with a lot more Not probably, with a lot more potential if they apply the conviction to bring business to the United States that they did before when they were convincing themselves that everybody in the United States would buy electric vehicle.
If they apply half of the conviction that they had, we're going to be in a position that we can really bring Dearborn back and get it done with a much higher volume, and you can produce a lot more cars in the U.S. and sell more made-in-USA. cars to the American consumer. Q4 is basically what we're seeing right now. It's good. We believe that we're going to get what we said we will.
Okay. No, that's great and great to hear. Maybe just to touch on 2027, I know you talked about non-auto fixed contracts opportunity renewing in 2027. How should we think about that in terms of where they were originally signed? What's the price embedded in your $500 million? Is that current pricing that we're seeing? Just in terms of how we should see that play out through next year, is that gonna be a stairstep as the contracts get renewed, or should we see it spread out through 2027? Thank you.
Very first thing, the pricing levels that were the prevailing prices, underlying prices during the time that Michael Cooney and Michael Hrosik were renewing our contracts with our clients last year, were in the $800 level, maybe less. Today, they are in the $1,150 level or maybe more. The starting point of negotiation has moved up a lot. The clients know at this point that there's no chance that they can go ahead and harass us with imported steel. "Oh, if you don't buy from me, I'm going to import." Okay, be my guest. Go import. Go get the vessel through the Strait of Hormuz, for example, or bring it from Ukraine. It's not gonna happen. We are not going to use that to make our clients less profitable.
Actually, I have a full conviction based on my 45 years of experience in this business that higher prices benefit everybody, not just the mills, but the service centers, the OEMs, everybody. We just can't keep a business alive by forcing that business to produce and sell the product below cost. That's a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, we are not greedy. We're just realistic. We need to make a return on investment that we make in order to supply these clients and keep them in good health, financial health, as well as our own financial health. That's what we expect this negotiation to be more of a mature negotiation between business that understand the codependence and understand that there's no such way that they can take money out of my pocket and be happy, and we're gonna be happy as well.
We're gonna be happy when we are happy because we're making money, and we'll also be happy because they are happy because they are making money. That's the beautiful backdrop that we're gonna be negotiating with.
Great. Thank you, glad to be back and look forward to working with you.
Welcome back, Richard.
Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen. This does now conclude the question-and-answer session. With that, I would like to bring the call to a close. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

