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CLBT

Cellebrite DID
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue of $131.1 million was within the prior company target and adjusted EBITDA of $31.8 million exceeded the prior $29–31 million target. NRR improved to 117%, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $144.2 million, and early Genesis monetization plus the FedRAMP win support a possible longer-term reacceleration.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Immediate CEO succession creates transition and execution risk. [#IR-2026-08-13]
Momentum
15
Value
55
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $16.50 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.36
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d -8.5
Value55 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -8.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Immediate CEO succession creates transition and execution risk. [#IR-2026-08-13]
  • • Longer sales cycles and weaker Inseyets expansion drove the ARR miss and FY26 guidance reset. [#IR-2026-08-13]
  • • ARR missed the prior target, FY26 ARR and revenue guidance were lowered, and management cited longer sales cycles and less Inseyets expansion.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-13

Immediate CEO succession

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-8.5
Δ21d
-3.2
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.3
Δ21d
-17.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 14.9 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 44.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.04B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
251.34M
P/E (TTM)
58.0
P/S (TTM)
9.68
P/FCF (TTM)
31.74
Rev YoY
+15.8%
EPS YoY
-67.8%
Gross Margin
+83.0%
Op Margin
+11.4%
Net Debt
-$414.38M
Current Ratio
1.60
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data