B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
+14.7% vs current
CHMG
Chemung FinancialCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-07-22
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
-4.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
-19.2% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-21
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+24.4
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+24.4
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+46.1
Score
AI commentary
News coverage is sparse and primarily filing-monitoring. Social, insider, options, and employee-sentiment data are unavailable. No verified Q2 earnings reaction or analyst revision signal was found; the deterministic prior remains negative at -2.96% over 5 days, -8.44% over 20 days, and -13.51% over 60 days. The strong Q1 primary-source evidence is therefore balanced by limited forward visibility.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-21
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-09-30catalystRecord Q1 execution could support valuation if durableHigh impact
The latest confirmed SEC-filed earnings exhibit reported record Q1 2026 net income of $9.2 million and EPS of $1.91, a 58.27% adjusted efficiency ratio, 7.5% annualized loan growth, and nearly 15% period-end growth in Western New York. Management attributed performance to market expansion and 2025 balance-sheet repositioning [#SEC-8K-2026-04-17].
2026-10-19eventQ2 earnings follow-up remains unconfirmedMedium impact
The packet schedules a T+3 follow-up for the July 16, 2026 earnings date, but no Q2 release, 8-K, transcript, analyst revision, or reliable post-print price-reaction evidence was located in bounded retrieval. Treat confirmation of EPS, NIM, credit metrics, funding, and guidance as monitoring items rather than a directional thesis.
2026-10-19catalystFunding and margin pressure remain the key downside checkMedium impact
Q1 net interest income declined 0.8% sequentially; total-loan yield fell 10 basis points, average deposits declined $21.3 million, and average borrowings increased $50.7 million. These trends require confirmation in the next reported quarter and could pressure earnings if sustained [#SEC-8K-2026-04-17].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology