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CHMG

Chemung FinancialD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Chemung has a strong latest confirmed operating print: record Q1 earnings, improving efficiency, commercial-loan growth, Western New York expansion, and a maintained $0.34 dividend. Sustained execution could justify upside toward the upper scenario range.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27.
What can break
Analyst coverage, insider data, and social sentiment are unavailable, while the peer set is only loosely validated.
Momentum
70
Value
44
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $73.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-07-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $89.30
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d -0.3
Value44 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -3.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst coverage, insider data, and social sentiment are unavailable, while the peer set is only loosely validated.
  • • Commercial-loan growth and Western New York expansion create execution and credit-monitoring needs; current-quarter credit confirmation is unavailable.
  • • The deterministic prior is negative, while Q1 also showed sequential NII pressure, lower loan yields, weaker deposits, and higher borrowings.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27

Record Q1 execution could support valuation if durable

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-11.7
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-8.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 69.6 / Value 43.6 / Sentiment 48.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$404.43M
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
4.82M
P/E (TTM)
20.0
P/S (TTM)
2.91
P/FCF (TTM)
10.05
Rev YoY
+85.0%
EPS YoY
-235.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.3%
Net Debt
$116.75M
Current Ratio
0.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data