B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CHMG
Chemung FinancialCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Chemung has a strong latest confirmed operating print: record Q1 earnings, improving efficiency, commercial-loan growth, Western New York expansion, and a maintained $0.34 dividend. Sustained execution could justify upside toward the upper scenario range.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Analyst coverage, insider data, and social sentiment are unavailable, while the peer set is only loosely validated.
Momentum
78
Value
44
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $73.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-07-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $84.67
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d +3.4
Value44 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst coverage, insider data, and social sentiment are unavailable, while the peer set is only loosely validated.
- • Commercial-loan growth and Western New York expansion create execution and credit-monitoring needs; current-quarter credit confirmation is unavailable.
- • The deterministic prior is negative, while Q1 also showed sequential NII pressure, lower loan yields, weaker deposits, and higher borrowings.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Record Q1 execution could support valuation if durable
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-3.3
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+1.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 78.2 / Value 44.1 / Sentiment 54.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$399.17M
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
4.82M
P/E (TTM)
20.0
P/S (TTM)
2.91
P/FCF (TTM)
10.05
Rev YoY
+85.0%
EPS YoY
-235.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.3%
Net Debt
$116.75M
Current Ratio
0.05
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data