B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CDLR
Cadeler A/SCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
An expanded fleet and more contracted days supported strong H1 results, followed by a September increase in full-year guidance. Further execution could support upside, but the guidance raise is known.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Revised EBITDA guidance excludes Menck acquisition and integration costs; an anticipated December hammer sale is included in revenue guidance. [#SEC-6K-2026-09-10] https://ir.cadeler.com/financials/all-sec-filings/content/0001978867-26-000105/a6-kxcadelerxupdatetoguida.htm
Momentum
48
Value
57
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.25
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +9.5
Value57 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -15.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Revised EBITDA guidance excludes Menck acquisition and integration costs; an anticipated December hammer sale is included in revenue guidance. [#SEC-6K-2026-09-10] https://ir.cadeler.com/financials/all-sec-filings/content/0001978867-26-000105/a6-kxcadelerxupdatetoguida.htm
- • The Vattenfall maintenance collaboration is an exploratory MoU, not evidence of contracted revenue. [#PR-2026-09-21] https://ir.cadeler.com/press-releases/detail/116/cadeler-and-vattenfall-join-forces-to-shape-the-next-generation-of-offshore-wind-maintenance-solutions
- • The larger fleet raises execution demands.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-21
Proposed UK redomiciliation offer
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+9.5
Δ21d
-34.0
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.2
Δ21d
-20.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 48.2 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 44.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.39B
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
96.47M
P/E (TTM)
5.2
P/S (TTM)
2.64
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.52
Rev YoY
+111.8%
EPS YoY
-533.3%
Gross Margin
+57.1%
Op Margin
+45.5%
Net Debt
$1.73B
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data