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CCL

CarnivalA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 adjusted-EPS beat, stronger-than-June operating outlook and record 2027 booked position support the prior positive thesis [#SEC-8K-2026-09-29]. The deterministic prior also moved upward, with a 0.685 thesis-change score, but the large initial share-price reaction absorbs some near-term upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Cruise costs per available lower berth day rose 4.2% year over year in Q3, driven by fuel, while Middle East disruption has added logistics costs [#SEC-8K-2026-09-29].
Momentum
83
Value
64
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.43
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +1.2
Value64 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -2.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cruise costs per available lower berth day rose 4.2% year over year in Q3, driven by fuel, while Middle East disruption has added logistics costs [#SEC-8K-2026-09-29].
  • • Higher fuel prices can offset yield and cost improvements; the company estimates a $59 million Q4 adjusted-net-income impact from a 10% fuel-cost change [#SEC-8K-2026-09-29].
  • • Fuel already reduced Q3 EPS by approximately $0.10 alongside currency effects, and Q4 remains fuel-sensitive.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-29

Q3 beat and improved full-year operating outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+42.6
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-10.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 83.4 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 51.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$36.12B
Beta
2.49
Shares Out
1.34B
P/E (TTM)
16.6
P/S (TTM)
1.57
P/FCF (TTM)
14.14
Rev YoY
+5.3%
EPS YoY
-6.9%
Gross Margin
+29.2%
Op Margin
+16.3%
Net Debt
$26.07B
Current Ratio
0.30
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data