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CCK

CrownA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 EPS and revenue beats, 6% can-volume growth and higher free-cash-flow floor support the prior positive thesis. Post-print target changes reported on October 21 were modestly favorable: UBS raised its target to $118 from $116 while retaining Neutral, and Citi raised its target to $139 from $137 while retaining Buy.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
What can break
Brazil, Greece, Spain and India capacity projects carry start-up, utilization and return-on-capital risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
Momentum
78
Value
64
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $124.00 · Bull $135.00 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $136.15
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d +17.8
Value64 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +4.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Brazil, Greece, Spain and India capacity projects carry start-up, utilization and return-on-capital risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
  • • Input-cost inflation offset much of Q3 volume growth and reduced segment income year over year despite higher sales. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
  • • Q4 EPS guidance fell below the reported $1.79 consensus, and Q3 segment income declined despite stronger volume because of input-cost inflation.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Q4 guidance tests the Q3 earnings beat

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.8
Δ21d
+34.2
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-1.9
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 78.3 / Value 64.1 / Sentiment 59.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$124.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$12.56B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
108.76M
P/E (TTM)
13.1
P/S (TTM)
1.00
P/FCF (TTM)
13.72
Rev YoY
+17.2%
EPS YoY
+42.8%
Gross Margin
+17.6%
Op Margin
+12.8%
Net Debt
$5.3B
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data