CALC

CalciMedicaC

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$1.40

+74.9% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$0.45

-43.8% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$0.12

-85.0% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-15

AI commentary

Sentiment remains fragile and mostly monitoring-driven. The January 28, 2026 KOURAGE discontinuation reset the story negatively even though management later said its review found no drug-related toxicity and plans FDA discussions in AKI [#PR-2026-01-28][#PR-2026-03-03]. Since then, the more concrete near-term disclosures have been about Nasdaq noncompliance and finite runway, which leaves the stock trading as an event-risk and financing-risk vehicle rather than a clean clinical-upside setup [#8-K-2026-03-18][#10-K-2026-03-03].

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-15

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-06-30catalystAuxora acute pancreatitis pivotal-program designHigh impact

Management said it expects to finalize the pivotal-program design for Auxora in acute pancreatitis in the first half of 2026 after constructive FDA engagement; a concrete protocol or regulatory path would be the clearest fundamental re-rating lever left after the KOURAGE setback [#PR-2026-03-03].

2026-08-31catalystRunway and financing posture become more visibleHigh impact

The company reported $13.0 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at December 31, 2025 and guided runway into the fourth quarter of 2026; absent a strong clinical/regulatory win, investors are likely to focus on financing, balance-sheet repair, or capital-structure actions over the next several quarters [#10-K-2026-03-03][#PR-2026-03-03].

2026-09-14eventNasdaq compliance deadlines in September 2026High impact

CalciMedica disclosed notices for both market-value and minimum-bid-price noncompliance, with cure deadlines of September 9, 2026 and September 14, 2026, respectively; failure to cure could move the stock toward delisting, while a cure or approved remediation plan would remove a major overhang [#8-K-2026-03-18].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology