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Earnings documents stored for CAG.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-21A Look At Conagra Brands (CAG) Valuation After Earnings Miss And Cut To EPS Guidance
Simply Wall St.
A Look At Conagra Brands (CAG) Valuation After Earnings Miss And Cut To EPS Guidance
Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St's easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge. Conagra Brands (CAG) is back in focus after its latest quarterly report, where revenue came in slightly ahead of estimates, but earnings missed, margins tightened, and full year adjusted EPS guidance was cut. See our latest analysis for Conagra Brands. That weaker quarter and cut to adjusted EPS guidance have coincided with fading momentum, with the share price down 7.28% over 30 days and 26.38% over 90 days. This has contributed to a 33.49% decline in 1 year total shareholder return and a 53.19% drop over 5 years. If this kind of reset in expectations has you looking beyond packaged foods, it could be a moment to scan for other opportunities using our screener for 20 top founder-led companies With Conagra shares falling sharply and the stock now trading at a reported discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, the key question is whether this reset is an entry point or if the market is correctly pricing limited future growth. At a last close of $13.76 against a narrative fair value of $16.01, Conagra Brands is framed as undervalued, with that gap pinned to future margin and cash conversion expectations. Read the complete narrative. Want to see how modest revenue assumptions can still support a higher fair value? The narrative leans heavily on margin repair and richer earnings power. Curious which profit and valuation hurdles it assumes Conagra clears to close that price gap? Result: Fair Value of $16.01 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on inflation and tariffs remaining manageable, as well as on Conagra avoiding further profit margin pressure from supply chain costs or regulatory changes. Find out about the key risks to this Conagra Brands narrative. While the narrative fair value of $16.01 points to upside, the current P/S of 0.6x looks very similar to the US Food industry average of 0.7x and below a fair ratio of 0.8x. That hints at some potential upside, but also suggests the discount may not be as clear cut. For investors weighing how much confidence to place in this type of comparison, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. With mixed signals on value and sentiment, it makes sense to look at the un...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-17How The Conagra Brands (CAG) Investment Story Is Shifting As Valuation And Earnings Views Diverge
Simply Wall St.
How The Conagra Brands (CAG) Investment Story Is Shifting As Valuation And Earnings Views Diverge
Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE. Conagra Brands is in focus after an updated fair value estimate moved from US$18.75 to US$16.01, a reduction of about 15% in the modelled target. This shift lines up with a split analyst narrative, where more cautious views emphasize earnings risk and balance sheet pressure, while supportive voices point to guidance reaffirmation and valuation support. As you read on, you will see how these competing arguments shape the evolving story and what to watch if you are tracking this stock. Stay updated as the Fair Value for Conagra Brands shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Conagra Brands. At the 2026 CAGNY conference, Bernstein highlighted Conagra’s reaffirmed guidance and higher free cash flow conversion expectations, which stood out against cuts at some peers and supported a more constructive view on execution. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo both lifted their Conagra price targets in February 2026, to US$19 and US$20 respectively, reflecting research that pointed to modestly higher estimates and sector-level recalibration. From late March into April 2026, several firms including Deutsche Bank, TD Cowen, JPMorgan, BofA, UBS, Barclays, RBC Capital, Goldman Sachs, Evercore ISI, Stifel and Morgan Stanley cut price targets, signaling increased caution on valuation and earnings risk. Wells Fargo shifted its rating on Conagra to Underweight in March 2026 with a reduced price target of US$15, citing higher leverage, a tight dividend payout profile and earnings risk as factors that could pressure the stock relative to peers. Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives! We've flagged 2 risks for Conagra Brands. See which could impact your investment. Target plans to require all cereals on its shelves to be made without certified synthetic colors by the end of May, a policy that could influence product formulations for packaged food suppliers such as Conagra Brands. Conagra's Board approved Amended and Restated Bylaws effective May 5, 2026, allowing virtual stockholder meetings under Delaware law an...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-05Conagra Brands Releases Fiscal 2025 Citizenship Report, Detailing Progress Across Key Sustainability Priorities
PR Newswire
Conagra Brands Releases Fiscal 2025 Citizenship Report, Detailing Progress Across Key Sustainability Priorities
CHICAGO, May 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) today announced the publication of its Fiscal 2025 Citizenship Report, highlighting key initiatives and actions that support Conagra's employees, the communities it serves and the health of the planet. Conagra's Citizenship approach is centered around four pillars—Good Food, Responsible Sourcing, Better Planet and Stronger Communities—that guide how the company creates value while operating responsibly. "Our Citizenship work is integral to how we run and grow our business—strengthening our brands, supporting our people and communities, and operating responsibly," said Sean Connolly, president and chief executive officer of Conagra Brands. "We're striving to make measurable progress and help build a more sustainable and resilient future." "We're focused on embedding sustainability into our strategy and operations by prioritizing the issues where we can have the greatest impact and being transparent about our progress," said Christine Daugherty, vice president of sustainability, Conagra Brands. "This year's report includes an updated view of our priority topics, reflecting the issues that matter most to our stakeholders and our business." Highlights from the Fiscal 2025 report across Conagra's four Citizenship pillars include: Good Food: Conagra is dedicated to making safe, delicious and nutritious foods that fulfill the needs of modern consumers, while providing them with access to the information they want and need to make informed decisions about what they eat. Advanced consumer choice by introducing new front-of-pack communication on select products—including Healthy Choice being the first major brand to communicate "GLP-1 Friendly" on the front of pack in fiscal 2025. 100% of Conagra production facilities completed Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI)-recognized certification, reinforcing a strong food safety culture and recall readiness. Expanded product transparency with approximately 7,500 SmartLabel® pages live across more than 3,600 unique products, providing easier access to detailed product information. Responsible Sourcing: Conagra approaches the sourcing of ingredients and packaging materials thoughtfully. The company considers the potential environmental and social impacts of its products throughout their lifecycle and seeks to support circularity through regenerative agricult...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-01Conagra Brands (CAG) Down 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Zacks
Conagra Brands (CAG) Down 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Conagra Brands (CAG). Shares have lost about 8.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500. But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Conagra Brands due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Conagra Brands before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late. Conagra Brands reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein the top and bottom lines declined year over year, and earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate despite the company posting organic sales growth. Results reflected improving volume trends, particularly in frozen and snacks categories, partly offset by inflationary pressures, divestiture impacts and margin contraction. Conagra narrowed its guidance for fiscal 2026. Conagra’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were 39 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents. The bottom line dropped 23.5% year over year, primarily due to lower adjusted gross profit and continued cost inflation pressures. Net sales decreased 1.9% year over year to $2,787.8 million, but came in slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,767 million. The decline reflected a 4.8% headwind from M&A, partly offset by a 2.4% increase in organic net sales and a 0.5% favorable currency impact. Organic net sales rose 2.4%, backed by a 1.9% improvement in price/mix and a 0.5% rise in volumes. Management highlighted gains in volume share across categories such as frozen meals, vegetables, snacks, hot cocoa, seeds and pudding. Our model suggested organic sales would increase 1.2% in the third quarter. Adjusted gross profit declined 6.3% to $660 million, while adjusted gross margin contracted 112 basis points to 23.7%, as productivity gains were more than offset by inflation, unfavorable operating leverage and divestiture-related impacts. Our model projected adjusted gross margin contraction of about 160 basis points to 23.2%. Adjusted SG&A expenses increased 6.4% to $364 million, reflecting higher advertising and promotional investments. Adjusted EBITDA declined 14.9% to $437 million. Grocery & Snacks: Net sales declined 6.3% year over year to about $1.2 billion due to an 8.1% M&A he...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-13Top Midday Stories: Goldman Shares Fall Despite Q1 Earnings Topping Estimates; Revolution's Pancreatic Cancer Drug Met Key Study Goals
MT Newswires
Top Midday Stories: Goldman Shares Fall Despite Q1 Earnings Topping Estimates; Revolution's Pancreatic Cancer Drug Met Key Study Goals
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up in late-mor
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-08Conagra (CAG): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?
StockStory
Conagra (CAG): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?
Although the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the past six months, Conagra’s stock price has fallen further to $15.60, losing shareholders 16.6% of their capital. This might have investors contemplating their next move. Is there a buying opportunity in Conagra, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free. Even with the cheaper entry price, we don't have much confidence in Conagra. Here are three reasons why CAG doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own. Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive. Conagra’s average quarterly sales volumes have shrunk by 1.5% over the last two years. This decrease isn’t ideal because the quantity demanded for consumer staples products is typically stable. Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions. Sadly for Conagra, its EPS declined by 13.8% annually over the last three years, more than its revenue. This tells us the company struggled because its fixed cost base made it difficult to adjust to shrinking demand. If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills. As you can see below, Conagra’s margin dropped by 4.8 percentage points over the last year. This decrease warrants extra caution because Conagra failed to grow its revenue organically. Its cash profitability could decay further if it tries to reignite growth through investments. We see the value of companies helping consumers, but in the case of Conagra, we’re out. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 9.2× forward P/E (or $15.60 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are superior stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at a dominant Aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy. WHILE...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-02Conagra Brands Faces Cost Risks Through Fiscal 2027, RBC Says
MT Newswires
Conagra Brands Faces Cost Risks Through Fiscal 2027, RBC Says
Conagra Brands (CAG) could face slower earnings growth next year as high input costs, weak demand, t
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-01Conagra Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Organic Sales Growth
Zacks
Conagra Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Organic Sales Growth
Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein the top and bottom lines declined year over year, and earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate despite the company posting organic sales growth. Results reflected improving volume trends, particularly in frozen and snacks categories, partly offset by inflationary pressures, divestiture impacts and margin contraction. Conagra narrowed its guidance for fiscal 2026. Conagra’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were 39 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents. The bottom line dropped 23.5% year over year, primarily due to lower adjusted gross profit and continued cost inflation pressures. Conagra Brands price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Conagra Brands Quote Net sales decreased 1.9% year over year to $2,787.8 million, but came in slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,767 million. The decline reflected a 4.8% headwind from M&A, partly offset by a 2.4% increase in organic net sales and a 0.5% favorable currency impact. Organic net sales rose 2.4%, backed by a 1.9% improvement in price/mix and a 0.5% rise in volumes. Management highlighted gains in volume share across categories such as frozen meals, vegetables, snacks, hot cocoa, seeds and pudding. Our model suggested organic sales would increase 1.2% in the third quarter. Adjusted gross profit declined 6.3% to $660 million, while adjusted gross margin contracted 112 basis points to 23.7%, as productivity gains were more than offset by inflation, unfavorable operating leverage and divestiture-related impacts. Our model projected adjusted gross margin contraction of about 160 basis points to 23.2%. Adjusted SG&A expenses increased 6.4% to $364 million, reflecting higher advertising and promotional investments. Adjusted EBITDA declined 14.9% to $437 million. Grocery & Snacks: Net sales declined 6.3% year over year to about $1.2 billion due to an 8.1% M&A headwind, partly offset by 1.8% organic growth. Organic sales benefited from a 4% price/mix increase, offset by a 2.2% volume decline. Adjusted operating profit fell 10.6% to $217 million. We had expected segment volumes to fall 2.4% while expecting a 2.8% pricing gain. Refrigerated & Frozen: Net sales increased 1.6% to $1.1 billion, driven by 3.6% organic growth and a 2% M&A drag. Organic growth was supported by a 3.9% volume increase, partia...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-01Conagra Brands (CAG) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates
Zacks
Conagra Brands (CAG) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates
Conagra Brands (CAG) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.4 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.51 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -2.28%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.44 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.45, delivering a surprise of +2.27%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. Conagra Brands, which belongs to the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry, posted revenues of $2.79 billion for the quarter ended February 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.76%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $2.84 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Conagra Brands shares have lost about 9.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's decline of 4.6%. While Conagra Brands has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Conagra Brands was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (...
TranscriptFY2026 Q32026-04-01FY2026 Q3 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 93 paragraphs
FY2026 Q3 earnings call transcript
Good day, and welcome to the Conagra Brands third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings Q&A call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Matthew Neisius, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Conagra Brands. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Once again, I'm joined this morning by Sean Connolly, our CEO, and Dave Marberger, our CFO. We may be making some forward-looking statements in discussing non-GAAP financial measures during this Q&A session. Please see our earnings release, prepared remarks, presentation materials, and filings with the SEC in the investor relations section of our website for descriptions of our risk factors, GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations, and information on our comparability items. I'll now ask the operator to introduce the first question.
Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks so much. Morning, everybody.
Morning, Andrew. Morning.
Hi there. Maybe Sean, to start off, I'd really like your thoughts on, you know, if the industry does end up facing another round of broad-based inflation, I guess whether you think, you know, Conagra and the industry at large would be able to, you know, count on pricing as but one lever to help offset it as it has in the past, or if this time is different, you know, just given consumers are particularly value conscious at this stage. You know, I ask it because I think some industry players clearly are needing to, you know, remain highly focused on debt pay down and protect profitability, you know, even if it prolongs sort of the volume recovery dynamic.
Yep. Great question. Here's how I would tell you to think about that. First, as a reminder, believe it or not, it was all the way back at the beginning of our fiscal 2024 when we pivoted to a focus on restoring volume growth in frozen and snacks, even if it meant eating some inflation and enduring some margin compression. Well, that strategy has proven to be quite effective because you've seen our volume trajectory improve every quarter since, with the exception of that brief period last year where we had the temporary supply constraints. We're very pleased, you know, and pleased to see our total portfolio growing again this quarter. As for what comes next, our plan at this point is to stay agile. If inflation is benign, you'll see us likely continue to focus on continued volume momentum.
If for some reason inflation was to go the other way, we'll keep our options open. After all, we are a company that is intensely focused on maximizing cash flow. We've already proven that we can move the volume needle to growth in frozen and snacks when we need to. You know, net will be agile, but right now, I would say it's too early to speculate on a particular course of action. There's three and a half months to go before we guide for fiscal 2027, and obviously, a lot can unfold by the hour these days. Certainly, a lot can unfold in the next three and a half months. One thing we can be sure of is that we will drive a lot of productivity while we optimize all our other levers to mitigate any inflation that might come our way.
Remember, we did take pricing this year on a bunch of products, our canned foods and our cocoa-oriented products, and the elasticities have been quite encouraging. Let's see how the dust settles, and then we'll take the smartest course of action to deal with, you know, whatever we're seeing at the time. As I sit here today, I see a lot of positives. The business has strong momentum, especially in frozen snacks. Shares are excellent, cash flow is strong, productivity is robust, and people are highly engaged in delivering some of the most exciting innovations we've had. A lot to feel good about.
Great. No, thank you for that. Just Dave, real quickly, maybe, I guess, what sort of visibility do we have at this stage on costs going into fiscal 2027, just based on where you might already have some, you know, some hedges in place? I'm not asking, obviously, for your overall inflation estimate or whatever for next year, but just how much visibility do you think you have or based on where you already know what you've got in place? Thanks so much.
Yeah, Andrew, let me give you a little color there. For our fiscal 2027, our material spend coverage is generally consistent with the prior years at this point. We're roughly 60% covered, and this is total materials. 60% covered for Q1 and roughly 40% covered for the full fiscal year. Areas where we have a bit more coverage than historically would be steel, freight. Remember, we contract line haul, that's a big percentage of our freight. That's on contract. Some of our crop-based ingredients, we have better coverage. A little bit less coverage on diesel fuel. We're covered through the end of this fiscal year there, but not as covered as we've been in the past.
Just as a reminder, proteins probably have the lowest coverage of anything. For next year, we're only about 15% covered. We're more spot market when it gets to the animal proteins. Hopefully that gives you a little bit of a feel.
Yep, really helpful. Thanks so much.
Our next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Those were precisely my questions, so let me just follow up on that a little bit. When you look at your portfolio, you've obviously been prioritizing volume over the last fiscal year, and that has helped. You know, there are some other notable companies in the space that have been aggressive in this prioritizing volume first, just like you. I wonder where we are now in terms of where you think your pricing power is. Do you feel like you're in a better spot now with regard to relative price points to private label in some of your categories versus main competitors and others in terms of your just volume momentum overall?
I really am asking because in the past, you've said things like we'll be okay if inflation is not over 3% in terms of getting to where I'll go. I just wonder if today, if we do go over 3%, if you'll be able to drive profitable growth going forward. Thank you.
Hey, David, it's Sean. First of all, private label, just since you brought that up. We under index in terms of private label development in our categories, particularly in our almost non-existent in our biggest business, which is frozen meals. You know, our strategy has been what I've called a horses for courses strategy, where our growth businesses have been focused on getting back to volume growth that's frozen in snacks, and that is happening. Our staples business is focused on cash maximization. That's a lot of things like our canned food business, and we have taken inflation justified price on those categories, and we've seen good elasticity. It's a surgical approach that we've taken historically.
You know, but make no mistake about it, because we've dealt with the most protracted inflation super cycle that I've certainly seen in my 35 years of doing this. After a few years of every company taking justified pricing, you know, investors said, "Look, you can't shrink your way to prosperity. Show us that you can get the volumes moving again." We have done that. Our portfolio responsiveness, I think, has outpaced our peers, which shows you we are delivering good value and we are delivering exciting innovation. You know, as I mentioned to Andrew, as to what's to come, you know, we'll see what the field gives us when we've got to snap the chalk line here.
If the, you know, if things settle down with the war and things like that and things look more benign, you know, I think it makes sense to stay focused on keeping the momentum that we've got in volume. If for some reason things broke the other way and we're looking at a whole slog of new costs, you know, we can pivot as well, because to the degree you do take price and you sacrifice a little volume, it's more of a volume sabbatical than it is a permanent volume rebase, and you tend to see the volumes come back when inflation moves again and you see those prices get rolled back.
As I said, we've got to stay agile but feel really good to see that we have a portfolio that is responsive to you know proper pricing and wise investments and strong innovation when we need it to be. You know, look, investors always wanna see top line and bottom line growth. Sometimes the macro environment can make it challenging to do both at the same time. You know, we'll stay agile and we'll keep you posted as we get to next quarter in terms of what we're seeing and what the exact plan is.
Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Up next, we have Megan Clapp with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks so much. I just wanted to start with maybe a question on the fourth quarter. You know, as you look at the third quarter, you obviously had some nice momentum, a return to org sales. There were a lot of moving parts just with the retailer timing and some of your share dynamics. As we think about the fourth quarter, maybe you can just help us with some of the building blocks as we think about top line. Should shipments generally match consumption? And then on the op margin line, can you just help us kind of understand the building blocks to the sequential improvement that's embedded as well? Thanks.
Hey, Megan, it's Sean. Let me start by tackling the shipment versus consumption question because I saw a couple early reports this morning that I think might have that wrong. I would not spend a lot of time overthinking shipments versus consumption because with our company, because of the supply interruption last year and then some merchandising timing shifts in frozen this year out of Q2 into Q3, our shipment patterns have moved around a bit compared to what they normally do. Over fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 combined, we are basically shipping almost exactly to consumption, which is what we always do as a company. It's just been a bit lumpier quarter to quarter because of those dynamics. You know, with respect to this quarter, I wouldn't get overly exercised around there's an implication in Q4.
It's actually more the reversal of Q2, which was where we had a bunch of holiday shipments last year. Those merchandising shipments this year moved to Q3. Not a lot of drama there. That's the shipment versus consumption piece of the year to go. Dave, you wanna tackle anything else?
Yeah. Just to add to that, Megan, we do expect positive organic net sales growth in Q4. That's obviously implied with our full year guide to the midpoint of the range for organic. Consumption and shipment should be more in line in Q4, you know, talking to what Sean just explained. We're excited about our innovation slate and you start shipping some of that innovation, so you start to see some of that in Q4. So they're really the building blocks for the top line. As it relates to operating margin, yes.
We expect an inflection from Q3 to Q4. Really the big drivers of that, A&P as a percentage of sales will not be as high in Q4 as it was in Q3. It'll be more in line with that kind of 2.5% average. The 53rd week actually gives some leverage in terms of overall operating margin. Then just some of the seasonality of trade, timing of productivity, timing of inflation, all those kind of things give us additional kind of benefit in op margin relative to Q3. I would say they're the kind of key building blocks.
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. Just as a follow-up, the op margin you're now expecting at the high end of the guide, could you maybe just talk about what's driving that? As we look at the exit rate on the fourth quarter, I think it implies something above 12%. You know, understanding there's a lot of moving parts right now, but if inflation kind of stays in this low single-digit range as you would hope it moderates to and normalizes over time, like, should we think about that exit rate as being informative of kind of a starting point going forward at this point?
Yeah. Regarding the last part of your question, I'm not gonna comment on fiscal 2027. You know, what I can say is, it, and if you just look at when we gave guidance at the beginning of the year, you know, 11%-11.5% operating margin when there were so many things going on at that time, and since then there have been so many dynamics, I feel really good that we're actually now gonna guide to the higher end of that range. That all starts with our inflation call, which was core inflation and tariffs. We're pretty much on that call. Our productivity programs are really doing well. The investments we've made in our supply chain and technology and in process are really, really delivering. So they're really the key.
As Sean talked about, we have taken price increases, particularly in our canned products, and the elasticities have been in line. When you kinda look at it's how we planned the year. There obviously have been some puts and takes, but generally speaking, we feel really good that we're coming in as we expected to on margin, and we expect that productivity to continue into next year. You know, obviously, we have more work to do on inflation. There's a lot of dynamics. Things are changing all the time. I talked about the coverage we have. We are locked in on certain key areas, which is good for us.
You know, we feel good that the building blocks for next year's plan are there, but we have to wait the next three months to give specific guidance, obviously. It's not operating margin, but on the free cash flow front, we continue to feel really good. You know, we took our conversion up to 105% from 100%, and we took it up at CAGNY. This is all from focus that we have in this company on free cash flow. It's part of the culture. It's part of the incentive plan for everybody in this company that's compensated, free cash flow is in their incentive.
We're very focused on it in areas like cash tax efficiency, areas like Ardent Mills, where although our equity profit is off $0.10, our cash is on plan. They're gonna continue to dividend at plan despite the equity earnings being down. Then inventory. We built up inventory levels coming out of COVID. Our safety stocks were high, and we've continued to ramp that down. If you look at our balance sheet, we have $2 billion of inventory. With Project Catalyst and us being able to leverage AI and other technology, we think we have a long runway to keep, you know, taking inventory out and be more competitive. We're pretty bullish on that front. We'll talk more about that when we give guidance, but obviously that has a cost impact as well.
I would say they're the building blocks and foundations how to think about margin kind of ending this year going into next year.
Thanks so much for all the color. I'll pass it on.
Our next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for the questions. Dave, maybe if I could just start on Ardent Mills. You know, the change or the revision to that line item, I think it's the second one of the year. You know, historically in that business, when there has been a lot of wheat volatility, you've been able to take advantage and I think, you know, in Q4, you're kind of calling that maybe it's the opposite. Just wanna understand kind of what's happening there, particularly in the fourth quarter, and then just any early read on kinda how we might start to think about the run rate of Ardent for 2027.
Sure, Peter. Just taking it from the top, as I've talked about, broadly speaking, Ardent has two sources of revenue and profit. They have their core business margin, where they, you know, they mill flour and sell that at a profit. That business is consistent, and that business is tracking. Then they have what we call commodity trading revenue. That's where there's a lot of activity hedging and different arbitrage where Ardent can be in a position to make a lot of money. What really drives the upside there are overall wheat prices and the volatility of the markets.
Through the first three quarters of this year, their wheat prices have been low and there's been less volatility in the wheat market, so not as much opportunity for Ardent to take advantage on the commodity trading side. Obviously, with the start of the war, wheat prices have gone up in the futures and volatility has increased. You don't see those benefits immediately. With our forecast for this year, you know, we've called the number where we are now. Clearly there is more volatility that the Ardent team is working through now. We will work through it as well to determine what kind of impact that could have on next year. We don't have line of sight to that at this time, but there is more volatility at this point since the war.
Okay. Thanks for that, Dave. That's helpful. And Sean, I think on Dave's initial comments on inflation for next year, he mentioned a bit on contracting on certain crop-based ingredients. There's a lot of concern in the market just given where fertilizer costs have gone and you all are a pretty big procurer of vegetables. So just how you all are thinking through that, what the conversations are like with your growing partners and whether that's really an issue for this grow season or whether it's more of a 2027 grow cycle event. Thanks very much.
Well, fertilizer it would be more of an FY 2028 event than FY 2027. But you know, I would say conversations are very productive. I think everybody's in the same boat, Pete. I mean, it's you know, it's kinda like the news of the hour around here that we're responding to, and so it's just super dynamic. We gotta stay on top of it. It changes day to day, and you gotta be agile. That's why I started my comments today to Andrew saying, you know, we will be responsive to the hand we are dealt, and we will choose the smartest course of action. That's just kind of the nature of operating in incredibly dynamic times.
Okay. Thanks very much, guys.
Thanks, Peter.
Our next question comes from Tom Palmer with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe I could just start off with a clarification on some of the inflation and freight commentary. You noted that you're covered in terms of contracts. I think in the past when we've seen rates run up, not totally dissimilar to now, we have seen spot running well above contracted rates and maybe contracted rates not holding in the way that you might think of a contract holding. I guess to what extent you're seeing that now, especially when I look at some of that margin pressure in the refrigerated business this quarter. Thanks.
Yeah. Spot was actually running low for a lot of our fiscal year. Spot has now spiked up and is above sort of contracted rates. A high percentage of our freight as we kind of look into next year is contracted line haul, so a high percentage. A smaller percentage is spot. You know, that market has spiked up like you just alluded to. But we have incorporated all that for our fiscal 2026 guide. As I mentioned next year, we're covered through a good part of next fiscal year with our freight contracts, and that's a high percentage. We do have some spot, but a high percentage is contracted.
Okay. Thank you. Then following up on Ardent, you mentioned earlier the strong free cash flow conversion, how some of that was aided by not lowering the distributions from Ardent, even as earnings have maybe not come in quite the way you expected. If we think about a potential rebound next year in Ardent's earnings, to what extent should we think about that flowing through to free cash flow generation, so essentially increasing the distributions versus more just fully covering the distributions in terms of the earnings? Thanks.
Yeah. Tom, we look at this on a kind of a year-by-year basis. We have a lot of discussion with our joint venture partners on capital allocation priorities. As a kind of a general rule, Ardent Mills does an outstanding job managing their balance sheet. They keep their leverage low, and they're really efficient with their cash flow. You know, this year, they were in a position to be able to hold to plan despite, you know, some of the volatility I described early on the commodity trading revenue. As a general rule, we set, you know, we have a sort of a payout ratio level that we set going into the year, and then, you know, we look at how the year plays out, and then we modify from there.
Generally speaking, we feel very good about, you know, the cash generation of Ardent Mills and, you know, getting timely distributions.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Thanks. A couple questions. One, Dave, can you remind us what the tariff component of your cost inflation is this year? I think it's like 2% or so. How should we think about it for fiscal 2027? Does it lap? Will it turn to zero? Does that automatically get you some relief in your inflation for next year?
Yeah, Rob. Generally kind of our going into the year, our overall inflation was 7%, 4% was core, and 3% were gross tariffs before mitigation.
Yeah.
We track mitigation as part of productivity, and we estimated 1% in mitigation. As we look in and that's pretty much played out. We have, you know, there's been some volatility obviously with the IEEPA tariffs, but then we have the new tariffs that have come in. Not a material change, I would say to the original estimate, a little bit favorable, but then our core inflation's been a little unfavorable. We're still at that kind of total 7%, call it. As we look to next year, because we had mitigation that we're gonna wrap, there is gonna be some headwind from a kind of wrap perspective in tariffs. You know, we originally said 1% mitigation, which would imply $80 million of headwind. We don't think it's gonna be that much.
Might be more like half of that, but we are gonna have some headwind with tariff just because we're wrapping up the mitigation that we had this year that now won't flow into next year.
Okay. I'll follow up on that. More broadly, the retail consumption data, Sean, looks really strong on a two-year volume CAGR basis for frozen. When I just look at your shipments and I try to do that same two-year CAGR just for Refrigerated and Frozen division, it's down on a two-year basis, and that's trying to normalize for the supply chain disruption. Is that just because this division has refrigerated brands that have been down over that two-year period that you're not including in that Nielsen data?
You know, I'm not sure exactly what you're looking at, Rob, but that could be a piece of it. I mean, there are some of the refrigerated businesses that are nowhere near the strategic priority as our frozen business as an example.
Mm-hmm.
Those could be categories where, as we follow our horses for courses approach, it's more of a value over volume. You know, I would say in general, on the core Frozen business, you've seen strength on a one-year and you see strength on a two-year. You know, staggering market share data around 88% of that business holding or gaining share, which I know was a central focus for investors last year when we had the supply interruption. It's like, will this bounce back? Will it bounce back strong? It has bounced back. Our Refrigerated businesses, some of those businesses are more about cash contribution. There are some particularly high margin businesses in there.
Some of those refrigerated businesses we treat more like some of our center store businesses like cans, where we manage them for cash and not as much for volume growth. That's probably what you're seeing there. Dave, you wanna add to that?
Yeah, just Rob, and I'll let you kind of follow up checking numbers, but if I just look at the Q3, obviously this quarter for shipments for RNF volume was +3.9%, Q3 a year ago was -3%. On a two-year basis-
Yes.
Volume is actually up in shipments.
Yes. I was referring to overall dollars are down. Yeah, I agree with you, Dave. All right. Thank you.
Thanks.
Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. I wanted to see if you maybe could just take a sort of a two- to three-year view on the margin trajectory for your key U.S. businesses. You know, the grocery and snacks business has seen pressure, but there's clearly been more pressure on the Refrigerated and Frozen side. When you kinda digest that past few years, what are the key challenges that have impacted the business? Obviously, there's been inflation, but I wonder if there are other things under the hood. Maybe you can comment on your medium-term productivity initiatives as well. I'd love any thoughts there.
Yeah. Chris, let me give you my thoughts on that. We are the biggest frozen food manufacturer in North America, if not the world. We have, as a company, seen, you know, in this, you know, now five- or six-year deep inflation super cycle, we've seen a, you know, a massive increase in the cost of goods that we've had to deal with. After about four years of taking inflation-justified pricing in order to kinda protect margins, that's where we said on our growth business is you can't shrink your way to prosperity, and that's led by frozen. We did pivot the strategy to, you know, stop taking, at some point, all this inflation-justified pricing in frozen to get volumes moving again. That means we had to eat some of that higher cost.
As a result, that business in particular, because it's so strategic to us, we got volumes moving. They're moving extremely well again this quarter, but we've had to eat some cost. A lot of that cost has been in animal protein, because as you know, animal proteins have been up. That is exactly what has driven the margin compression in the frozen business. It was a choice we made to protect our leading market shares and protect our sales. If you looked at even the velocities across our portfolio that came out yesterday, I think we've got the best velocities by a good chunk in the group. Now the question comes, you know, what's next? Obviously, we've got the wild curveball that we're dealing with.
As I said last quarter, we absolutely, you know, assuming we can get some element of normalcy, we absolutely expect margin expansion going forward, particularly in frozen. The building blocks haven't changed. It starts with productivity. In fiscal 2026, between core productivity and tariff mitigation, that number is just over 5%, which is very strong. Second, at some point, we're gonna get inflation relief, hopefully back to closer to our typical 2%. Certainly, getting the war behind us would help with that. Third, we've got the advancement of our supply chain resiliency investments, including the chicken plants, and that's gonna enable us at some point to repatriate outsourced volume, which will be a, you know, a good thing for margin.
Fourth, you know, we are taking price and we have taken price surgically and we've seen encouraging elasticities. The fifth thing is, as you've heard me talk, you know, in the last couple of quarters, we've kicked off this Project Catalyst, which is an ambitious initiative to reengineer our core work processes leveraging technology. That's gonna be a benefit to both the P&L and the balance sheet. In the P&L, it'll be a benefit to sales, it'll be a benefit to profit. In the balance sheet, we see opportunity there in terms of, you know, reducing working capital, increasing cash, and that's a real tangible and exciting opportunity. Yeah, it's margin, and it's more than margin in that particular project.
You know, put those things together and, you know, we feel very good about the margin outlook from here. Obviously, it wouldn't hurt if the world settled down a bit. You know, we'll deal with that because that's, you know, not something we control. We gotta respond to that.
Okay. All right. Great. Thanks, Sean. Just, you know, Dave, the free cash flow conversion has been a really good story. You upped that at CAGNY and a small increase again today. Are we run rating at a new level for free cash flow conversion? You know, do you see a level of sustainability up here over 100%? Then just, you know, it's kind of a confirmation of a prior question. You know, the dividends are staying on Ardent, or I think that the cash component of Ardent has maintained despite the income statement component coming down.
Does that get reset next year or can you maintain a level of dividends? By the way, I know you're not guiding to Ardent, and nor am I suggesting, but is there some sort of like mark-to-market that needs to happen there? That's kind of, you know, just a quick follow-up. Same things on cash.
Yeah. Okay. Well, let me start with the free cash flow conversion. We're not gonna guide to that now. What I would say is we always target a 90% or better free cash flow conversion as the base. You know, given our earnings and our ability to convert that to cash just in the normal course, we feel 90% is the appropriate target. To get above that, we need to find additional cash-generating ideas. We've done that with cash tax efficiency this year, with different planning that we've done that's really helped us there. The big thing has been working capital specific to inventory, and I talked about it earlier.
We have a significant amount of inventory, and we believe we have great opportunity to really reduce that inventory in future years. Our inventory increased coming out of COVID 'cause we had a lot of demand and we increased our safety stocks, and now we're methodically reducing it with our supply planning systems and our process. When we leverage some of these new tools with AI now, we think that we can continue that acceleration of inventory reduction, and that's the kinda thing that's gonna take you above 90%. Again, I'm not gonna specifically guide on that today, but we're laser-focused on inventory. A big part of that too, I've done this a long time, to be able to take inventory down, you have to have alignment between supply chain, sales, and finance.
It may sound simple, but sometimes that doesn't always happen. We have great alignment here, and it starts at the top in terms of a commitment to taking inventory out. We're investing and we feel pretty bullish on our ability to take that out. As it relates to Ardent Mills, I would just when we set equity earnings for Ardent, we always have a payout ratio on those earnings, and that's how we start the year. That payout ratio is pretty high. It's not 100%, but it's pretty close. Then we go from there. This year the earnings fell, but we kept the dividend to plan, so our payout ratio is above 100%.
You always reset it every year so that the dividend payment and the equity earnings to start the year are pretty much in sync, and then we evaluate their balance sheet as we go each quarter.
Okay. That's really helpful. Thanks so much, guys. Appreciate it.
Thanks.
Our next question comes from Scott Marks with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. First thing I just wanted to get clarity on, in terms of the volume growth in the business, wondering if you can help us understand how much of that was driven by some of the retailer inventory adjustments and how much of it would you attribute to just recovery from the supply chain disruptions a year ago?
Well, we certainly undershipped last quarter, Scott, and we've caught that back up because the merchandising events moved into Q3, and so the shipments associated with those moved into Q3. We're on a two-year basis, as I mentioned before, we've basically shipped consumption and there's not a material gap there at all. In terms of the takeaway portion of it's strong on a one- and two-year basis. If you look at the mix of TPDs versus velocities, the hero there has really been the velocity piece, and that's driven in large part by just the strength of the innovation we've seen.
You know, very pleased with the consumer takeaway that we've seen, particularly in frozen and snacks, which is obviously, you could see in some of the data, has been quite strong. Yeah.
Understood. Appreciate that. A follow-up just quickly. I know last quarter you've been talking about the new big chicken facility, talking about bringing in-house some production and that had been on track. Just wondering if you can share an update on that, how that's progressing versus expectations. Thanks.
Yeah, we sell a lot of chicken, and we use a lot of chicken in our products, and it's a combination of baked or roasted, whatever you wanna call it, and fried. Both have been strong. Both projects are tracking right where we need them to be. We still do have production on the outside. That'll continue for a little bit, but then at some point when all our work is complete, we'll have an opportunity to bring that back in as a good guy to our margins.
Yeah. Just on the bake side, we did complete that project and we're starting to bring that volume back this year. As we go into next year, that should be a tailwind in terms of having full year on that. Then the fried, we've made investments and that's, you know, that's gonna go out longer.
Appreciate it. Thanks very much.
Thanks.
Our next question comes from Carla Casella with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Carla, is it possible your line is muted? It's open on our end, but I'm still unable to hear you.
I think that might be the last question, so why don't we go ahead and wrap up today?
All right. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Matthew Neisius for closing remarks.
Thank you, Bailey, and thank you all so much for joining us today. Please reach out to Investor Relations if you have any follow-up questions. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-31Conagra Quarterly Organic Sales Likely to Face Some Pressure; Focus to be on Fiscal 2027 Outlook, RBC Says
MT Newswires
Conagra Quarterly Organic Sales Likely to Face Some Pressure; Focus to be on Fiscal 2027 Outlook, RBC Says
Conagra Brands' (CAG) fiscal third-quarter organic sales are likely to face some pressure amid subdu
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-26Conagra Brands Q3 Earnings on Deck: What Should Investors Expect?
Zacks
Conagra Brands Q3 Earnings on Deck: What Should Investors Expect?
Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG is likely to witness a top and bottom-line decline when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on April 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.77 billion, indicating a decrease of 2.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 40 cents per share, suggesting a drop of 21.6% from the figure recorded in the year-ago quarter. CAG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.4%, on average. Conagra Brands price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Conagra Brands Quote Conagra’s third-quarter results are likely to reflect continued pressure on both sales and earnings, as the company entered the period facing a still-cautious consumer backdrop. As per management, in the prior quarter, shoppers, especially lower and middle-income consumers, remained value-conscious, which is likely to have kept demand uneven across parts of the portfolio. The company also began the quarter after weather disruptions and SNAP-related timing issues affected prior-period trends, making the operating environment difficult. Another factor that may have affected the quarter is the timing of retailer orders and promotions. On its last earnings call, Conagra said that some promotional activity, especially in frozen, moved from the second quarter into the third. This is likely to have supported shipments in certain areas, but results may be shaped more by timing than a clear improvement in demand. Our model suggests a volume dip of 0.6% for the third quarter. On the profitability front, margins are expected to have remained under pressure from elevated input costs and continued investments in the business. Inflation across commodities and packaging has kept the cost structure high, while increased spending on advertising, promotions and merchandising to support volume growth is likely to have weighed on earnings. We expect the adjusted gross margin to contract 160 basis points in the quarter under review. On the positive side, underlying trends in frozen and snacks appear to be improving, supported by innovation, better promotional activity and strong supply-chain execution, which may have provided some cushion. Our model indicates a 1.5% volume increase for the Refrigerated & Frozen segment for the quarter under consideration. Our proven model doesn’t concl...

