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BTU

Peabody EnergyB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Successful Centurion ramp, stronger seaborne pricing, and released collateral could lift cash generation and support a rerating. The company also has longer-term REE/critical-minerals optionality.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
A director reported an open-market sale of 4,584 shares at $24.43 on 2026-05-07. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-11]
Momentum
85
Value
42
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.50 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.64
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -2.3
Value42 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director reported an open-market sale of 4,584 shares at $24.43 on 2026-05-07. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-11]
  • • Centurion may fail to reach targeted production rates or may face further roof-control and commissioning costs.
  • • The deterministic prior is negative, with expected returns of -6.36% over 20 days and -13.36% over 120 days.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-03

Centurion production ramp

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
+46.0
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-5.1
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-34.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 84.7 / Value 42.5 / Sentiment 67.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.16B
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
121.9M
P/E (TTM)
24.3
P/S (TTM)
0.94
P/FCF (TTM)
16.81
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
+227.4%
Gross Margin
-0.8%
Op Margin
-3.7%
Net Debt
-$115.4M
Current Ratio
2.01
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data