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BTU

Peabody EnergyB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Successful Centurion ramp, stronger seaborne pricing, and released collateral could lift cash generation and support a rerating. The company also has longer-term REE/critical-minerals optionality.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
A director reported an open-market sale of 4,584 shares at $24.43 on 2026-05-07. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-11]
Momentum
17
Value
44
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.50 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.79
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d -6.5
Value44 · Δ7d +1.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director reported an open-market sale of 4,584 shares at $24.43 on 2026-05-07. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-11]
  • • Centurion may fail to reach targeted production rates or may face further roof-control and commissioning costs.
  • • The deterministic prior is negative, with expected returns of -6.36% over 20 days and -13.36% over 120 days.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-03

Centurion production ramp

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
17
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
-17.5
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+1.8
Sentiment
76
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
-1.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 16.9 / Value 44.3 / Sentiment 76.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.84B
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
121.9M
P/E (TTM)
24.3
P/S (TTM)
0.94
P/FCF (TTM)
16.81
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
+227.4%
Gross Margin
-0.8%
Op Margin
-3.7%
Net Debt
-$115.4M
Current Ratio
2.01
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data