B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee BarFNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
BRCB's 25.0% Q2 revenue growth, 4.2% same-store-sales increase, 30.2% store-level margin and expanding store pipeline support a credible growth case. Positive July transactions and strong reported California AUVs could provide further confirmation if sustained.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA growth lagged revenue growth in Q2 as public-company costs and higher adjusted SG&A limited operating leverage.
Momentum
62
Value
36
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $4.75Analysis 2026-09-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.67
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d +48.1
Value36 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment26 · Δ7d -15.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EBITDA growth lagged revenue growth in Q2 as public-company costs and higher adjusted SG&A limited operating leverage.
- • Extended hours and a higher food mix may create labor or product-mix pressure before producing durable incremental sales.
- • Q2 transactions declined 2%, adjusted EBITDA grew more slowly than revenue, and pipeline investment raises execution and cash-flow risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Q3 comparable-sales and transaction test
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
62
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+48.1
Δ21d
+53.4
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.7
Δ21d
-41.3
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 61.6 / Value 36.1 / Sentiment 26.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$491.21M
Beta
-
Shares Out
22.21M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6505.6
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.86
Rev YoY
+25.0%
EPS YoY
-
Gross Margin
+23.7%
Op Margin
+3.3%
Net Debt
$135.64M
Current Ratio
0.71
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data