BOOT

Boot BarnD

NYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail

At close

2026-06-02

View Chart

AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$185.00

+7.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$155.00

-9.8% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$120.00

-30.2% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-17

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence improved materially on May 14, 2026 with the earnings 8-K and release, and secondary coverage framed the initial reaction as modestly positive after a small EPS beat. Still, this is a T+3 follow-up with limited verified post-print analyst revision flow, no reliable social coverage packet, and a medium-coverage name, so the tone is better but still best treated as an earnings-monitoring setup rather than a full conviction rerating.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-17

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-14catalystQ4/FY26 beat with FY27 guide reset higherMedium impact

Boot Barn reported Q4 sales up 18.7% to $538.8M, same-store sales up 6.1%, diluted EPS of $1.45, and guided FY27 to 14%-16% sales growth with 70 planned openings plus 10 stores pulled into Q4 FY26; this is the clearest post-earnings driver and is primary-source confirmed [#8-K-2026-05-14].

2026-08-05eventNext quarter must validate the lower FY27 comp cadenceHigh impact

Management guided Q1 FY27 to 2.0%-4.0% consolidated same-store sales growth and $1.62-$1.71 EPS, so the next print becomes the proof point for whether FY26 momentum can continue after a record year [#8-K-2026-05-14].

2027-03-27catalystStore growth and exclusive-brand mix can keep margins expandingHigh impact

FY26 merchandise margin expanded on better buying economies of scale, higher exclusive-brand penetration, and supply-chain efficiencies, while the 10-K says exclusive brands were 40.8% of sales and remain a strategic focus; if Boot Barn scales 70 more stores without losing margin discipline, the longer-duration earnings story remains intact [#8-K-2026-05-14] [#10-K-2026-05-14].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology