B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BOOT
Boot BarnCNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-17
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-15.3
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-15.3
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+73.7
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence improved materially on May 14, 2026 with the earnings 8-K and release, and secondary coverage framed the initial reaction as modestly positive after a small EPS beat. Still, this is a T+3 follow-up with limited verified post-print analyst revision flow, no reliable social coverage packet, and a medium-coverage name, so the tone is better but still best treated as an earnings-monitoring setup rather than a full conviction rerating.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-17
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-14catalystQ4/FY26 beat with FY27 guide reset higherMedium impact
Boot Barn reported Q4 sales up 18.7% to $538.8M, same-store sales up 6.1%, diluted EPS of $1.45, and guided FY27 to 14%-16% sales growth with 70 planned openings plus 10 stores pulled into Q4 FY26; this is the clearest post-earnings driver and is primary-source confirmed [#8-K-2026-05-14].
2026-08-05eventNext quarter must validate the lower FY27 comp cadenceHigh impact
Management guided Q1 FY27 to 2.0%-4.0% consolidated same-store sales growth and $1.62-$1.71 EPS, so the next print becomes the proof point for whether FY26 momentum can continue after a record year [#8-K-2026-05-14].
2027-03-27catalystStore growth and exclusive-brand mix can keep margins expandingHigh impact
FY26 merchandise margin expanded on better buying economies of scale, higher exclusive-brand penetration, and supply-chain efficiencies, while the 10-K says exclusive brands were 40.8% of sales and remain a strategic focus; if Boot Barn scales 70 more stores without losing margin discipline, the longer-duration earnings story remains intact [#8-K-2026-05-14] [#10-K-2026-05-14].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology