BNL

Broadstone Net LeaseC

NYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Quote time unavailable

Current thesis

The positive case is that BNL enters this print with constructive primary-source setup: management entered 2026 citing momentum and confidence in AFFO growth [#PR-2025-12-01], Q4 AFFO per share grew 5.6% year over year with 100% rent collection and 2.9% same-store rental revenue growth [#PR-2026-02-18], and the February development update expanded the build-to-suit pipeline [#PR-2026-02-25]. If Q1 confirms that cadence, shares can grind toward the low-$20s.

Posture

Mixed

Lead driver

Sentiment

What changed

Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.5.

What can break

As of April 29, 2026, the company had scheduled Q1 2026 results for after the market close, but the checked company sources did not yet confirm the results package, so earnings surprise, guidance revision, and market reaction remain unverified.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $20.50 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.

Data freshness

Prices

Unavailable: Price unavailable

Fundamentals

As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence

What

Grade C · Mixed

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $23.70

Why

Momentum56 · Δ7d +3.4

Value62 · Δ7d -

Sentiment51 · Δ7d +6.5

So what

Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

• Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

• As of April 29, 2026, the company had scheduled Q1 2026 results for after the market close, but the checked company sources did not yet confirm the results package, so earnings surprise, guidance revision, and market reaction remain unverified.
• Management referenced tenant-related headlines when issuing 2026 guidance in December 2025, showing that tenant credit or event risk can still interrupt same-store growth and sentiment [#PR-2025-12-01].
• The bearish case is that this is still a monitoring thesis on April 29, 2026 because the actual Q1 results package, post-print analyst revisions, and management transcript digestion were not yet confirmed in the checked sources.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-29

Q1 2026 earnings release is the near-term clearing event

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot

Momentum

9% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+3.4

Δ21d

-5.3

Value

28% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

Δ21d

Sentiment

62% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+6.5

Δ21d

+3.7

Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 56.3 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 50.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$22.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$20.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$18.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-08-17

Market Cap

$4.07B

Beta

1.02

Shares Out

191.89M

P/E (TTM)

37.6

P/S (TTM)

7.46

P/FCF (TTM) · Derived

110.98

Rev YoY

+8.1%

EPS YoY

+95.7%

Gross Margin

+58.7%

Op Margin

+49.7%

Net Debt

$2.53B

Current Ratio

2.83

As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data