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BNL

Broadstone Net LeaseB
NYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The positive case is that BNL enters this print with constructive primary-source setup: management entered 2026 citing momentum and confidence in AFFO growth [#PR-2025-12-01], Q4 AFFO per share grew 5.6% year over year with 100% rent collection and 2.9% same-store rental revenue growth [#PR-2026-02-18], and the February development update expanded the build-to-suit pipeline [#PR-2026-02-25]. If Q1 confirms that cadence, shares can grind toward the low-$20s.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
As of April 29, 2026, the company had scheduled Q1 2026 results for after the market close, but the checked company sources did not yet confirm the results package, so earnings surprise, guidance revision, and market reaction remain unverified.
Momentum
30
Value
62
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.50 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $23.10
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d -3.3
Value62 · Δ7d -
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +8.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • As of April 29, 2026, the company had scheduled Q1 2026 results for after the market close, but the checked company sources did not yet confirm the results package, so earnings surprise, guidance revision, and market reaction remain unverified.
  • • Management referenced tenant-related headlines when issuing 2026 guidance in December 2025, showing that tenant credit or event risk can still interrupt same-store growth and sentiment [#PR-2025-12-01].
  • • The bearish case is that this is still a monitoring thesis on April 29, 2026 because the actual Q1 results package, post-print analyst revisions, and management transcript digestion were not yet confirmed in the checked sources.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Q1 2026 earnings release is the near-term clearing event

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
30
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-7.4
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.9
Δ21d
-0.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 30.0 / Value 62.0 / Sentiment 60.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.33B
Beta
1.02
Shares Out
191.89M
P/E (TTM)
37.6
P/S (TTM)
7.46
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
90.79
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
+95.7%
Gross Margin
+58.7%
Op Margin
+49.7%
Net Debt
$2.53B
Current Ratio
2.83
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data