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BLZE

BackblazeD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary-source case remains constructive: Q1 beat guidance, B2 kept growing materially faster than the legacy backup business, AI wins added measurable ACV, and profitability improved versus last year [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04]. That combination supports the view that BLZE is becoming a more credible AI-storage and upmarket infrastructure story rather than just a low-growth backup vendor.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
What can break
Adjusted free cash flow was negative $1.8 million in Q1 2026, so improving earnings quality is not yet fully matched by cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
Momentum
6
Value
52
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.40 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $5.80Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-02 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.83
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d -7.5
Value52 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment49 · Δ7d +1.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted free cash flow was negative $1.8 million in Q1 2026, so improving earnings quality is not yet fully matched by cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
  • • Computer Backup revenue was relatively flat and Computer Backup NRR was 95%, which keeps the legacy segment a drag on consolidated momentum [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
  • • The caution flags are still meaningful: total growth was only 12%, Computer Backup was flat, total NRR slipped to 103% from 105%, Computer Backup NRR fell to 95%, and adjusted free cash flow remained negative in Q1 [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].

Catalyst clock

2026-11-02 · AMC

Q1 2026 beat and AI storage traction reset the near-term narrative

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
6
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-7.5
Δ21d
-80.0
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+3.7
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
+41.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 5.9 / Value 52.5 / Sentiment 48.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$572.58M
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
61.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-20.3
P/S (TTM)
2.03
P/FCF (TTM)
93.58
Rev YoY
+17.7%
EPS YoY
-34.4%
Gross Margin
+62.2%
Op Margin
-7.0%
Net Debt
$10.2M
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data