B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
-27.8% vs current
BLZE
BackblazeDNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-20
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.40
-36.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
-55.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-06-11
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+63.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+7.6
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence is constructive and recent: the May 4, 2026 earnings release showed a guidance beat, faster B2 growth, AI-customer traction, and better profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04]. Secondary coverage also points to improving estimate revisions [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-12], but low coverage, unavailable target-count detail, and no reliable post-print price-reaction evidence in the packet argue for a cautious monitoring stance rather than an aggressive momentum call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-11
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-04eventQ1 2026 beat and AI storage traction reset the near-term narrativeHigh impact
Backblaze reported Q1 2026 revenue of $38.7 million, up 12% YoY, B2 Cloud Storage revenue up 24% YoY, and said it exceeded the top end of revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance; management also cited 76% YoY AI-customer growth and about $1.5 million of ACV from two AI wins, which supports a still-open post-earnings rerating case despite thin coverage [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
2026-07-31catalystEstimate-revision support is favorable but still lightly verifiedMedium impact
A third-party Zacks note said current-quarter and full-year EPS estimates moved higher over the prior 30 days, which is supportive for near-term sentiment, but the signal should be treated cautiously because packet coverage is thin and no broader analyst-reset data is included [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-12].
2026-12-31catalystB2 mix shift and improving operating leverage can compound through 2026High impact
The more durable setup is continued mix shift toward B2 and larger accounts: Q1 ARR rose 13% YoY to $158.2 million, B2 ARR rose 28% YoY to $93.0 million, large-customer ARR grew 72% YoY, gross margin reached 61%, and Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 26%; if that mix holds, BLZE has room for a gradual multiple and earnings-quality re-rating [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-06-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology