B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BLZE
BackblazeFNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary-source case remains constructive: Q1 beat guidance, B2 kept growing materially faster than the legacy backup business, AI wins added measurable ACV, and profitability improved versus last year [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04]. That combination supports the view that BLZE is becoming a more credible AI-storage and upmarket infrastructure story rather than just a low-growth backup vendor.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Adjusted free cash flow was negative $1.8 million in Q1 2026, so improving earnings quality is not yet fully matched by cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
Momentum
55
Value
47
Sentiment
21
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.40 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $5.80Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.83
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d -43.4
Value47 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment21 · Δ7d +5.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted free cash flow was negative $1.8 million in Q1 2026, so improving earnings quality is not yet fully matched by cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
- • Computer Backup revenue was relatively flat and Computer Backup NRR was 95%, which keeps the legacy segment a drag on consolidated momentum [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
- • The caution flags are still meaningful: total growth was only 12%, Computer Backup was flat, total NRR slipped to 103% from 105%, Computer Backup NRR fell to 95%, and adjusted free cash flow remained negative in Q1 [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-04
Q1 2026 beat and AI storage traction reset the near-term narrative
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
55
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-43.4
Δ21d
-44.9
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+6.4
Sentiment
21
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.7
Δ21d
+20.4
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 54.7 / Value 47.2 / Sentiment 20.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.2B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
61.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-42.6
P/S (TTM)
2.03
P/FCF (TTM)
93.58
Rev YoY
+17.7%
EPS YoY
-34.4%
Gross Margin
+62.2%
Op Margin
-7.0%
Net Debt
$10.2M
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data