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BGC

BGC GroupC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest post-earnings read is that BGC converted its March outlook raise into a very strong Q1 and paired it with still-positive Q2 guidance, while FMX UST share gains and a larger $35 million annualized cost-savings target give investors a credible operating-leverage path [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
BGC's 10-K highlights intense competition for brokers, technology talent, and market share concentration across financial-services venues, all of which can pressure growth and margins [#10-K-2026-03-02].
Momentum
75
Value
49
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $12.40 · Bull $14.50 · Bear $9.60Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $15.50
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +18.8
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -2.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • BGC's 10-K highlights intense competition for brokers, technology talent, and market share concentration across financial-services venues, all of which can pressure growth and margins [#10-K-2026-03-02].
  • • Execution risk remains around delivering the now-higher $35 million annualized savings target without disrupting growth initiatives.
  • • The cautious read is that Q1 may have benefited from unusually favorable trading conditions and that Q2 guidance, while solid, steps down materially from Q1's $955.5 million revenue run rate.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 print beat the March setup and reset the near-term bar with Q2 guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
75
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.8
Δ21d
+42.1
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-7.7
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-3.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 74.8 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 64.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.31B
Beta
1.05
Shares Out
475.47M
P/E (TTM)
27.6
P/S (TTM)
1.55
P/FCF (TTM)
11.84
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
+27.7%
Gross Margin
+93.3%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$1.12B
Current Ratio
1.94
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data