B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BGC
BGC GroupCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest post-earnings read is that BGC converted its March outlook raise into a very strong Q1 and paired it with still-positive Q2 guidance, while FMX UST share gains and a larger $35 million annualized cost-savings target give investors a credible operating-leverage path [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.5.
What can break
BGC's 10-K highlights intense competition for brokers, technology talent, and market share concentration across financial-services venues, all of which can pressure growth and margins [#10-K-2026-03-02].
Momentum
67
Value
49
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.40 · Bull $14.50 · Bear $9.60Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.50
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d +19.8
Value49 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +6.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • BGC's 10-K highlights intense competition for brokers, technology talent, and market share concentration across financial-services venues, all of which can pressure growth and margins [#10-K-2026-03-02].
- • Execution risk remains around delivering the now-higher $35 million annualized savings target without disrupting growth initiatives.
- • The cautious read is that Q1 may have benefited from unusually favorable trading conditions and that Q2 guidance, while solid, steps down materially from Q1's $955.5 million revenue run rate.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Q1 print beat the March setup and reset the near-term bar with Q2 guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
67
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+19.8
Δ21d
+35.3
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-7.4
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.5
Δ21d
-9.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 67.4 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 63.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.31B
Beta
1.05
Shares Out
475.47M
P/E (TTM)
27.6
P/S (TTM)
1.55
P/FCF (TTM)
11.84
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
+27.7%
Gross Margin
+93.3%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$1.12B
Current Ratio
1.94
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data