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BCC

Boise CascadeA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales reached $1.83 billion, adjusted EBITDA increased 6%, and Wood Products EBITDA rose 40%, demonstrating resilience despite softer housing activity. The James Hardie expansion and continued capital returns could add longer-term upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
What can break
A director sold 1,930 shares at $84.58 on August 5; this is a limited insider-sentiment datapoint and not evidence of deteriorating operations. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-06]
Momentum
62
Value
63
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $90.00 · Bull $105.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-09-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $96.50
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d -15.2
Value63 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director sold 1,930 shares at $84.58 on August 5; this is a limited insider-sentiment datapoint and not evidence of deteriorating operations. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-06]
  • • BMD profitability declined despite higher sales as selling, distribution, shipping, employee, and depreciation costs increased.
  • • BMD EBITDA declined 7%, engineered-wood-product sales weakened, and the reported Q3 outlook implies a sequential EBITDA reduction.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-12

Q3 operating-performance test

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.2
Δ21d
-17.7
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+4.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 61.7 / Value 63.2 / Sentiment 82.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.86B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
34.89M
P/E (TTM)
15.0
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
46.48
Rev YoY
+5.2%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
+13.9%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$45M
Current Ratio
2.71
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data