B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVAV
AeroVironmentDNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record funded backlog, 1.4 book-to-bill and maintained fiscal 2027 guidance support delivery visibility. Contract conversion or firm orders arising from international partnerships could improve the outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09] [#PR-2026-10-13].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
What can break
Funded backlog may convert later or at lower margins than investors expect [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
Momentum
10
Value
40
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $118.00 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-10-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $212.09
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d -6.5
Value40 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -1.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Funded backlog may convert later or at lower margins than investors expect [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
- • Government contract retention and spending timing remain material uncertainties [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
- • Revenue grew only 6% in fiscal Q1 despite strong bookings, adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, and guidance was not raised.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Margin and integration execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
-22.2
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-39.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 10.3 / Value 39.6 / Sentiment 49.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.26B
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
50.82M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-22.8
P/S (TTM)
10.84
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-40.58
Rev YoY
+133.3%
EPS YoY
+112.2%
Gross Margin
+18.9%
Op Margin
-1.1%
Net Debt
$202.49M
Current Ratio
4.30
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data