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AUBN

Auburn National BancorporationB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q1 showed stronger earnings, NII, NIM, loan growth, and very low nonperforming assets [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]. The $0.27 quarterly dividend [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-13] and $5 million repurchase authorization [#SEC-8K-2026-03-17] add shareholder-return support.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Deposit funding costs, asset mix, and rate sensitivity could pressure NIM.
Momentum
60
Value
68
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $23.50Analysis 2026-07-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -
Value68 · Δ7d +9.3
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposit funding costs, asset mix, and rate sensitivity could pressure NIM.
  • • Higher charge-offs or additional credit deterioration could offset NIM and loan-growth gains.
  • • Net charge-offs increased to 0.28% of average loans annualized in Q1, and the allowance ratio declined partly because of CECL calculation refinements [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28].

Catalyst clock

2026-10-21

Q2 2026 earnings verification remains the key near-term event

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
+9.2
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 60.2 / Value 67.8 / Sentiment 64.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$91.5M
Beta
0.43
Shares Out
3.48M
P/E (TTM)
12.9
P/S (TTM)
2.88
P/FCF (TTM)
13.47
Rev YoY
+5.1%
EPS YoY
+25.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.7%
Net Debt
-$15.63M
Current Ratio
0.27
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data