ASTH

Astrana Health’s second quarter was met with a positive market response, as management highlighted several drivers behind the results. The company saw continued demand from payer and provider partners, maturation of value-based care cohorts, and disciplined medical cost trend management. CEO Brandon Sim attributed operating leverage improvements to the company’s proprietary AI-native healthcare operating system, which has enabled more efficient workflows and reduced general and administrative expenses. The integration of the Prospect Health acquisition also contributed to overall performance, with gross provider retention above 99% and expected operating expense synergies at the high end of targeted ranges. Is now the time to buy ASTH? Find out in our full research report (it’s free). Revenue: $972.5 million vs analyst estimates of $985.4 million (48.5% year-on-year growth, 1.3% miss) Adjusted EPS: $0.80 vs analyst estimates of $0.73 (9.6% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $68.89 million vs analyst estimates of $67.93 million (7.1% margin, 1.4% beat) The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $3.95 billion at the midpoint EBITDA guidance for the full year is $267.5 million at the midpoint, in line with analyst expectations Operating Margin: 3.5%, in line with the same quarter last year Market Capitalization: $1.83 billion While we enjoy listening to the management’s commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls is the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention. Matthew Mardula (William Blair): Asked about current cost trends and commercial segment pressures; CEO Brandon Sim explained that overall trends are slightly better than assumed, with commercial costs above expectations but manageable and not requiring guidance changes. Jack Slevin (Jefferies): Inquired on Medicare Advantage bid alignment and future upside; Sim noted confidence in continued MA success and highlighted opportunities for improved coding and stable inpatient trends. Michael Ha (Baird): Sought details on transitioning Medi-Cal members to full risk and the expected earnings impact; Sim shared that tens of thousands of members will move to full risk, aligning financial incentives, though precise economics were not disclosed. Jailendra Singh (Truist): Asked about fourth quarter EBITDA guidance range and medium-term growth; Sim attributed Q4 seasonality to typical patterns and reaffirmed mid-to-high teens EBITDA growth targets, factoring in Medicaid headwinds and ongoing investments. Matthew Gillmor (KeyBanc Capital Markets): Queried the nature and benefit of automated member encounters; Sim described varied automated interactions supporting care delivery and G&A reduction, emphasizing long-term potential for AI-driven cost improvements. Looking ahead, our analyst team will be closely monitoring (1) the pace and profitability of transitioning more Medicaid and exchange members to full risk arrangements, (2) incremental contributions from new Medicare Advantage contracts in expansion markets like Texas and Hawaii, and (3) continued realization of operating expense synergies from the Prospect Health integration. Progress in scaling AI-enabled automation across administrative and clinical workflows will also be a key indicator of execution. Astrana Health currently trades at $36.09, up from $34.13 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members). WHILE YOU’RE HERE: Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. The best stocks don’t just beat the market once. They do it again. And again. Robust revenue growth, rising free cash flow, returns on capital that leave their competition in the dust. The market has already rewarded these businesses. But our AI platform says the party isn’t over. Find out which 9 stocks made the cut this week — FREE. Get Our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks for Free HERE. Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,460% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+271% between June 2020 and June 2025). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

Image source: The Motley Fool. Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. ET President and Chief Executive Officer - Brandon Sim Chief Operating and Financial Officer - Chan Basho Operator: Hello, everyone, and welcome to Astrana Health's second quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have the opportunity to ask questions during the question-and-answer session, and instructions will be provided at that time. Today's speakers will be Brandon Sim, President and Chief Executive Officer of Astrana Health, and Chan Basho, Chief Operating and Financial Officer. The press release announcing Astrana Health's results for the second quarter ended June 30th, 2026, is available in the investor relations section of the company's website at www.astranahealth.com. The company will discuss certain non-GAAP measures during this call. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in the press release. To provide some additional background on the results, the company has made a supplemental deck available on its website. A replay of this broadcast will be available at Astrana Health's website after the conclusion of this call. Before we get started, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call and any accompanying information discussed herein contains certain forward-looking statements within the meanings of the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements could be identified by terms such as anticipate, believe, expect, future, plan, outlook, and will and conclude, among other things. Statements regarding the company's guidance, continued growth, acquisition strategy, ability to deliver sustainable long-term value, ability to respond to the changing environment, liquidity, operational focus, strategic growth plans, and acquisition integration efforts. Although the company believes that expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of today, those statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. There could be no assurance that these expectations will prove to be correct. Information about risks associated with investing in Astrana Health is included in the filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we encourage you to review before making any investment decisions. The company does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, change in market conditions, or otherwise, except as required by law. Regarding to the disclaimer language, if you would like to refer to slide two of the conference call presentation for further information. With that, I will turn the call over to Astrana Health's President and Chief Executive Officer, Brandon Sim. Please go ahead, Brandon. Brandon Sim: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Astrana Health's second quarter 2026 earnings call. Today, I'll begin with an overview of our financial results, then discuss how our care model and AI native operating system for healthcare are accelerating our ability to deliver high-quality, patient-centered care at scale. I'll then provide an update on the Prospect integration following our first full year together. Finally, I'll discuss our strategic positioning in each line of business and provide color on our guidance before turning the call over to Chan. Astrana delivered another strong quarter, reflecting continued momentum across the business. We saw accelerating demand from payer and provider partners, continued maturation of our value-based care cohorts, disciplined medical cost trend management, and expanding operating leverage driven by our proprietary technology platform. In the second quarter, we generated revenue of $973 million, up 49% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $69 million, up 43% year-over-year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share reached a record high $0.80, up 45% year-over-year. Our business continues to generate substantial cash. Free cash flow totaled $93 million in the first half of the year, representing approximately 69% conversion of adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow. That cash generation, combined with continued earnings growth, has enabled us to continue deleveraging ahead of schedule. Net leverage declined to 2.26 times on a trailing 12-month basis. As a reminder, when we first announced the Prospect transaction, we committed to reducing net leverage below 2.5 times within 24 months. We've already surpassed that goal by approximately a quarter turn in half the time. These results continue to demonstrate the scalability of our AI-native healthcare operating system and the consistency of its execution. There's an important distinction between simply adopting AI and actually creating value from AI. We believe that durable competitive advantage comes from owning the orchestration layer, where data, workflows, clinical decision-making, operational processes, and financial accountability are integrated into a single operating system across the enterprise. That unified operating system gives our AI agents a shared context across the enterprise. Allowing them to work seamlessly across clinical, operational, and administrative functions rather than being confined to isolated point solutions. The result is intelligent automation that spans the organization, becomes more capable over time, and creates more value as the platform scales. Building that operating system has required years of healthcare expertise, proprietary data, workflow development, and organizational learning, creating a set of capabilities that we believe are difficult to replicate. Just as importantly, we've paired that operating system with a delegated payer-agnostic business model that captures the economic value that those better decisions create. That foundation is reflected in our execution across our four longstanding strategic priorities. First, we continue to grow responsibly. Our growth has never been constrained by demand. It's constrained by the economics of each new cohort that we onboard. Every new cohort requires upfront investment before reaching at-scale profitability, and our objective is to maximize long-term value by balancing growth with profitability. That equation is changing. As our AI-native healthcare operating system continues to improve, every new cohort we onboard generates stronger risk-adjusted returns. New cohorts become more predictable, require less upfront investment, and reach profitability more quickly. That allows us to responsibly move further along the growth profitability frontier, capturing more of the demand available to us without compromising our underwriting standards or long-term return thresholds. Because the business has outperformed expectations and generated strong free cash flow in the first half of the year, we've been able to move further along that frontier, accelerating growth by onboarding additional high-return opportunities while simultaneously exceeding our profitability expectations and raising our guidance for the year. On the payer side, we signed new Medicare Advantage agreements in Hawaii and Texas, expanded existing relationships in California, and saw strong demand across the platform. On the provider side, both our Care Partners and Care Enablement pipelines continued to strengthen, including planned new physician partnerships in the South and on the East Coast that we expect to begin contributing to revenue in 2027. We also continued to execute on disciplined strategic tuck-in acquisitions within our expansion markets, further strengthening our care delivery capabilities. We expect these investments to progress along the same maturation curve and become meaningful contributors to earnings over time. Second, we continue to progress prudently into full risk arrangements. In value-based care, success isn't about avoiding risk entirely. It's about reducing the uncertainty associated with that risk. Our platform continuously strengthens our ability to predict and influence the drivers of performance, fundamentally improving the risk-adjusted economics of value-based care. Our competitive advantage isn't a greater willingness to assume risk. It's a greater ability to reduce uncertainty through better clinical and operational execution. As a result, we're able to responsibly pursue full risk opportunities that others may view as too uncertain while maintaining the same disciplined underwriting standards. The full risk contracts that commenced in Q1 continue to perform in line with our underwriting expectations as those cohorts mature. At quarter end, approximately 81% of capitation revenue and 42% of our membership came from full risk arrangements. Our expansion markets continue to validate the portability of our operating model. In Texas, our delegated full risk partnership with a large national payer is now two full quarters into operation and continues to perform in line with our expectations. Based on that performance, we continue to expand our presence in the market, including adding approximately 3,000 new Medicare Advantage professional risk lives with a payer that selected Astrana as its risk partner. Third, we continue to manage medical cost trend through better care. Historically, risk stratification determined which patients received scarce clinical resources. Today, it increasingly determines how every patient receives care. Higher-risk patients continue to receive physician and nurse-led interventions, while lower-risk patients receive AI-enabled navigation, outreach, and longitudinal monitoring. AI does not replace clinicians. It extends their reach across a much larger portion of the population without compromising quality. On a year-to-date basis, overall medical cost trend remains slightly better than our full year assumption of approximately 5.2%. Medicare Advantage and original Medicare continue to perform favorably relative to our expectations. Medicaid cost trend is tracking in line with our expectations. Although commercial has run slightly above expectations in the quarter, we are confident in our ability to manage those trends through the clinical and operational levers enabled by our delegated model. For the 2024 performance year, our flagship MSSP ACO ranked seventh out of 476 ACOs nationwide in net shared savings per beneficiary, while our flagship ACO REACH entity ranked in the top 15% nationally in net shared savings. Fourth, we continue to expand operating leverage as we scale. Across the business, our AI agents are creating capacity, improving productivity, and enabling our teams to focus on higher value clinical and operational work. For example, in claims operations and referral management, AI powered workflows have reduced handling time by more than 50%, creating operational capacity equivalent to approximately 60 full-time employees over the past 12 months. As a result, G&A as a percentage of revenue improved approximately 210 basis points year-over-year in the second quarter. We continue to expect to exit the year with G&A at approximately 6% of revenue. Taken together, these four pillars demonstrate how Astrana's operating system for healthcare translates into measurable economic value, and we believe that's what fundamentally differentiates Astrana. Turning to Prospect. July first marks the one-year anniversary of closing the Prospect acquisition. Over the past year, we've systematically integrated Prospect onto the Astrana operating system, bringing clinical operations under a unified care model, embedding the workflows and technology that have driven our historical performance across the enterprise, and establishing a unified operating and financial framework across the business. The results continue to validate that approach. Gross provider retention has remained above 99%. We continue to expect operating expense synergies at the high end of our annual target of $12 million-$15 million. Medical cost trend within the legacy Prospect business continues to run slightly ahead of our expectations. More importantly, we've established the operational and clinical foundation that we believe will continue to drive improvement over the years ahead. Turning to the positioning of our portfolio. We continue to actively position our business for long-term value creation while remaining disciplined in our planning assumptions. We exited the quarter with approximately 1.5 million members in value-based arrangements with year-over-year membership changes driven primarily by Medicaid related attrition that was already contemplated in our guidance. Medicare Advantage membership remained stable during the quarter. In the exchange product, we continue to expect full year attrition consistent with both our guidance and our internal planning assumptions. In Medicaid, we continue to see attrition tracking towards the high end of our expectations, while adverse selection continues to be in line with expectations, as we shared last quarter. While these dynamics remain fluid across the industry, we remain comfortable with the assumptions embedded in our outlook and continue to plan conservatively. At the same time, we are continuing to improve the quality and alignment of our portfolio. In California, we're rebalancing portions of our Medi-Cal business by transitioning members from professional risk arrangements into full risk arrangements in response to changes in the state's Medicaid program. We expect these transitions with several of our health plan partners to occur over the next 12 months and view them as a natural progression of the strategy we've discussed over the past several years. Before I turn the call over to Chan, I'd like to provide a bit of color around our raised adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026. Our underlying performance continues to run ahead of plan. Rather than allowing all of today's outperformance to flow through to earnings, we've deliberately chosen to reinvest a substantial portion of that into the provider and payer growth opportunities that I mentioned earlier. In aggregate, these investments are in the mid to high single digit millions of dollars this year. As I discussed earlier, our operating system continues to improve the economics of growth, giving us the confidence to capture more of the demand available to us, even while maintaining the same disciplined investment standards. We believe that allocating some of our outperformance towards these growth opportunities is among the highest return capital allocation decisions available to us and will continue to compound our earnings power over time. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chan. Chan Basho: Thank you, Brandon, good afternoon, everyone. Our second quarter results reflect disciplined execution across the platform. Adjusted EBITDA finished towards the higher end of our guidance range, and free cash flow generation remained strong. We made meaningful progress on the balance sheet, retiring $92 million of debt during the quarter. Today, I will cover three areas: our second quarter financial performance, including medical cost trends, the balance sheet and free cash flow, and our updated outlook for the year. Total revenue for the second quarter was $973 million, up 49% versus the prior year period, driven by organic growth in our Care Partners segment, the Prospect Health acquisition, and continued ramp-up of our full risk contracts. Second quarter revenue was impacted by a one-time $15 million reduction related to CMS's implementation of the adjustments for significant anomalous and highly suspect billing activity for the ACO REACH 2025 performance year. Despite this, we are reaffirming our full year revenue guidance of $3.8 billion-$4.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $69 million, up 43% versus the prior year period and near the high end of our guidance range of $65 million-$70 million. This reflects controlled trend, solid performance across our full risk arrangements, continued realization of Prospect Health synergies, and disciplined cost management. Net income attributable to Astrana was $20 million. Adjusted EPS was a record $0.80 per share, up 45% versus the prior year period. Turning to G&A, we expect to be approximately 6% of revenue for the full year. Free cash flow for the first six months was $93 million, an increase of $29 million from Q1 2026. We remain on track to deliver full year free cash flow within our guidance range of $105 million-$132.5 million. On the balance sheet, de-leveraging moved from commitment to execution this quarter. We used our strong cash generation and position to retire $92 million of debt, bringing pro forma gross leverage down to 3.8 times from 4.2 times at the end of the first quarter. We ended the quarter with $401 million in cash, $579 million of net debt, and pro forma net leverage of 2.26 times on a trailing 12-month basis. As Brandon discussed, we're raising our full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255 million-$280 million. The increase reflects broad-based outperformance across the business, including the continued maturation of our full risk cohorts, continued realization of Prospect Health synergies, and operating leverage from our AI-native operating system. We are raising guidance even while continuing to reinvest a substantial portion of our outperformance into attractive long-term growth opportunities. These investments include growth in our core and expansion markets, newly onboarded payer contracts, planned provider partnerships, disciplined strategic tuck-in acquisitions, and recently converted risk cohorts that remain early in their maturation curves. We continue to believe these investments will generate attractive long-term returns while further strengthening our earnings power over time. On revenue, despite the one-time 2025 ACO REACH billing-related adjustment, the continued ramp-up of our full risk contracts keeps us comfortably within our previously communicated range. Accordingly, we are reaffirming our full year revenue guidance of $3.8 billion-$4.1 billion, as well as our free cash flow guidance of $105 million-$132.5 million. Our outlook continues to assume zero contribution from HQAF and conservative Medicaid membership trends. We expect greater clarity on both items as the year progresses. For the third quarter of 2026, we expect revenue between $1 billion and $1.03 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $72.5 million and $77.5 million. Taken together, our first half performance, including record profitability and earnings growth, strong free cash flow generation, and continued operating momentum gives us confidence in our updated outlook. We enter the second half of the year with momentum, a strong balance sheet, and confidence in the long-term trajectory of our business. With that, operator, we're happy to take questions from the audience. Operator: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For a participant choosing speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Please ask one question and one follow-up question and re-queue for any additional questions. Our first question is from Ryan Daniels with William Blair. Please proceed. Matthew Mardula: Yeah. Hello, this is Matthew Mardula in for Ryan. Thank you for taking the questions. With you talking about outperforming the full year trend assumption of about 5%, what cost trend are you currently at? With commercial above trend, what is impacting that segment, and is it the exchange segment? Lastly, did any segment cost trends needed to be revised versus your expectations? Brandon Sim: Hey, Matthew. Thank you for joining the call. I think there were a few questions. First on trend, year to date, overall trend is tracking slightly better than our guided 5.2% assumption blended across the business. By line of business, Medicare Advantage and original Medicare are slightly favorable to our overall trend. Our ACO populations and original Medicare are performing well. Medicaid is in line with that trend number, and that was inclusive of potential adverse selection effects in our guidance. Commercial, as I mentioned earlier, was slightly above. On commercial, we feel comfortable with our ability to inflect that throughout the year. It's only slightly higher than what we had anticipated. We're not anticipating changing our guidance at this time. Matthew Mardula: Great. Thank you for that. With the new members added in Texas, Hawaii, as well as in California for Medicare Advantage, and with you talking about continuing to expand membership, as we think about expansion, is MA the area that looks most favorable to you? As we think about into the second half and into 2027, should we be expecting MA membership to continue to grow? Do you believe this could maybe offset that decrease in Medicaid membership seen? Brandon Sim: Our model is based on being payer-agnostic. However, given some of the changes in Medicaid that are to come, naturally, there is a higher percentage of revenue that will be coming from Medicare, both Medicare Advantage as well as original Medicare, going forward. Matthew Mardula: Great. Thank you for taking all the questions. Operator: Our next question is from Jack Slevin with Jefferies. Please proceed. Jack Slevin: Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the question and congrats on a solid quarter. Apologies if you tread over this a little bit, but I guess I wanted to just touch on MA a little. Really two things, I guess. I know it's a little early without landscape files or other things, but maybe what you're hearing or seeing from payers, given we are past bid deadlines, or any chatter that might be in the marketplace on sort of where those things are aligning. Secondly, as you look at trend and opportunities to moderate there, any pockets you can call out or areas you might see that could be potential drivers of upside in MA as we progress through the year and into the out years? Brandon Sim: Hey, thanks for the question. I mean, first of all, on the plan, none of that is public yet. We do work closely with the plans, especially in those provider-specific plans that we develop in partnership with our plan partners to find the right benefits for the populations that we're serving and ensure that the benefits are driving better care coordination and better access to care for those members. I think it's a bit early to comment on the exact bids. I do think that we feel confident that our success in Medicare Advantage will continue to 2027. Of course, in California, which is our core market and a very competitive market for MA, there are always going to be, as we've seen in past years, folks who want to grow their plans dramatically. This has been a recurring theme, and we've managed through that, and we understand how to do that, and kind of spread our membership across our portfolio of health plan partners as we feel confident kind of going to 2027, especially with where the final rate notice was. In terms of potential opportunities, there are always opportunities to continue moderating medical cost trends. However, we're already seeing that outperforming our overall expectations, and we feel confident that we can continue doing that going forward. For example, inpatient admits per K in our Medicare business were very well controlled, and relatively flat year-over-year here in the first half of the year. That being said, there's always opportunity to more appropriately code our members. As we had mentioned before, our risk scores are approximately 1.0, which we believe is lower than the average for Medicare Advantage. That's something that, in the medium term, we will be looking to capture and diagnose and code more or chart more accurately. Jack Slevin: Got it. Okay. Really helpful. Then just as a follow-up, the G&A commentary continues to be, I think, pretty optimistic, and delivering on some of the upside there. I guess what I'm trying to parse out, related to some of the synergies in Prospect and then just ongoing efforts you have to make the business more efficient, more automated, more AI forward. If I try to balance those two things, can you just speak a little bit to sort of are those two things tracking nicely together? Is there room to go on Prospect within some of the core initiatives you're putting out across the business that are separate from the synergies? Would love to just hear sort of on those two tracks, how to think about the G&A improvements and how that casts forward. Brandon Sim: Right. Consistent with what we've been saying the last couple of quarters, we have been measurably improving our G&A spend, or decreasing G&A spend as a percentage of revenue. This quarter, for example, was over 2% lower than the same quarter last year, coming in underneath the 6% mark, and we expect to exit the year at the 6% range. Going forward, we continue to expect to see declines in G&A as a percentage of premiums under management, as a result of both increased capture of synergies, which are at the top end of the $12 million-$15 million range that we had previously guided, as well as core operational changes in the legacy Astrana business. It really is a mix of both. I don't have a breakdown of exactly what % is coming from each, but it's going to be continued improvements across the board in both capturing synergies as well as improvements in the core platform. Jack Slevin: Understood. Appreciate it, Brandon. Brandon Sim: Thanks. Operator: Our next question is from Michael Ha with Baird. Please proceed. Michael Ha: Hi. Thank you. On the rebalancing of Medi-Cal lives from professional to full risk, I was wondering if you could elaborate more on this. What's driving it? Is this related to the increased payer appetite you mentioned in your remarks, is there increased appetite from these Medicaid plans in California who are facing elevated margin pressures? How many lives are you expecting to convert over the next 12 months, and how should we think about the expected earnings impact? Brandon Sim: Hey, Michael. Thanks for the question. I think there are a couple of dynamics at play in Medicaid, especially in California for the Medi-Cal program. One part of it is that a lot of our care model is predicated on saving dollars across both outpatient and inpatient utilization. In areas or contracts in which there is no path to a full risk arrangement, or in areas where we can push towards a full risk arrangement, we believe that allows us to better align our performance with the financial outcomes that we receive from those contracts, especially in a time of compressing margin, and disenrollments in California, both now and potentially in 2027 and beyond, after OBRA '90 comes online. We're making a further push to emphasize that we would want to be fully accountable for the results that our model is driving, across all lines of business, but certainly especially in the Medi-Cal business, which we call out in the prepared remarks. We also believe that these transitions are generally amenable, for our plan partners, and we expect in the order of tens of thousands of members, conservatively moving into these arrangements over the next, call it 12 months, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks. We aren't currently sizing the economics necessarily tied to that. I think what's important is that we want to be aligned with our health plan partners. We want to deliver and be rewarded for the outcomes that we're driving. We believe that moving to full risk arrangements, which we have already started, as I mentioned with one contract in the remarks, this quarter, but continuing to do so in the next year will help us align in that fashion. Michael Ha: Great. Thank you. On risk capture, which you talked about in the other question, I guess when I think about it, over the past few years, you've had pretty nice improvement growing your RAF. It has grown 5% from 0.97 to 1.02 all during V28. Now that V28 is ending, trying to think, how should we think about the go forward annual RAF improvement? Would it be fair to presume if you were able to do 5% growth during one of the toughest risk coding environments, V28, that heading out it might even be greater RAF improvement? I was wondering if you could talk more about your internal RAF initiatives, investments being made. Are you embedding AI into this coding function? Even for this year, just wondering how are your AWV rates tracking year to date so far? Thank you. Brandon Sim: Thanks, Michael. We've historically been strong at the annual wellness visit, at driving that engagement with our patient base, especially in the Medicare population. That's something that we report, and track as an internal KPI that's important to us in terms of our ability to get the patients in, and really assess them in a comprehensive way. We view RAF and charting as a natural consequence event, not the primary motivation. Our model, as you know, is primarily focused on driving coordination, access and better outcomes and, kind of as an ancillary function, charting appropriately so that we're being reimbursed in a fair manner. We believe that improvements in RAF for existing cohorts will continue as before. That being said, as we continue growing membership in new regions, it really depends on what the RAF is for the new cohorts coming in. The blended average of that is impactful to the overall RAF number. We do believe, as in historical periods, that over time each cohort does improve in terms of the risk adjustment profile. We think that there is still upside in the medium term from being more appropriately coded in our Medicare population. Operator: Our next question is from Jailendra Singh with Truist. Please proceed. Jailendra Singh: Yeah, thank you, and thanks for taking my questions. First, I want to ask about second half EBITDA guidance and the implied Q4 outlook. It implies a pretty wide Q4 range of $47 million-$67 million. I understand Q4 is seasonally weaker quarter, the low end seems to imply a meaningful step down from Q3 levels. Is there anything meaningfully different in Q4 versus Q3 this year versus prior years? If not, can you help us understand the swing factors in the Q4 outlook? Brandon Sim: Hey, Jailendra. Thank you for the question. I think if you're focused on the width of the range, I think that's primarily an artifact, frankly, of just the range that we guided to for the year versus the quarter. I think how we would think about it is that the Q3 and Q4 cadence is very similar to past years. Q3 is typically a much better quarter, in fact, the best quarter of the year. There's a sequential step down into Q4 relative to Q3. I would be more focused on the midpoint potentially than the range necessarily, which is just an artifact, I think, of the range of the annualized guidance versus the quarterly guidance. Jailendra Singh: Okay. We didn't hear any thoughts on 2027. You have talked about mid to high teens year-over-year organic EBITDA growth, in 2027. First, I want to confirm, see if any changes to that thought process. Related to that, how are you thinking of Medicaid work requirement headwind next year? Is that captured in that mid to high teens number? The investments you're doing this year Do they have potential to drive incremental growth next year, or they are more supporting your mid to high teens growth? How should we think about that? Brandon Sim: Yeah, definitely. I think we have said, we'll stand by and reaffirm, medium term, mid to high teens EBITDA growth, not just for 2027, but into the medium term years as well. There are Medicaid changes starting 1-1-2027, as is well known. We think that based on the portfolio rebalancing and the changes we are making, we will have the right levers to continue growing in that range in a go-forward basis. In terms of the investments that we're making, as I mentioned, we're investing mid to high single-digit million dollars. Primarily, these are essentially losses in new contracts and new geographies to take on membership faster than we would've otherwise planned. These may not flip to profitability necessarily in 2027, but any losses related to them would be contemplated into our 2027 guide when we put that out. It's possible, depending on the cadence, some of the cohorts may turn positive more quickly, especially as we continue to compress the slope of the J-curves that we have given our operating system. At this time, we're contemplating kind of a more normal cohort improvement as in historical periods. Jailendra Singh: Okay. One more, if I can sneak in here. Some of the large health insurers have talked about exiting Medicaid markets. Some have talked about shrinking their exchange footprint, some talk about exiting certain MA plans. Some of these decisions are for 2027, I understand you don't have much exposure to some of these health plans, I believe others are partners. Generally, how much lead time do you get to contract with plans, winning those lives? Is that membership risk or share gain for a dense delegated network? Just help us understand how quickly you can shift these and how much lead time you have generally when plans exit or get out of these markets. Brandon Sim: Yeah. That's an interesting one. That really depends payer to payer. I think what really helps us is our unique payer-agnostic model. The idea is that we are acting as a coordinated, unified payer for our downstream delegated networks. For example, if one payer were to exit a certain market or exit a certain product, those members are still there. They will still be needing insurance. They may go to a different plan, a different product. The idea is that because of our unique model, our providers are not negatively impacted by that because it would simply be a switch in ID card benefit, et cetera, the providers would be extracted away from those changes. We would handle that on the back end for our providers. That being said, recently, we typically get around a few months in advance of some of these things happening, our teams are preparing to make sure that those members are moving to a plan that we do have a contract with so that their care is not interrupted, that operationally, the providers are not being disrupted either. Jailendra Singh: Great. Thanks a lot. Operator: Our next question is from David Larsen with BTIG. Please proceed. Jenny Shan: Hi, this is Jenny Shan on for Dave. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask about some of the member attrition that you referred to earlier. Just any thoughts on what you're seeing, what you saw this quarter versus last quarter? We were under the impression that the declines that you were seeing were pretty favorable, especially compared to some of your peers. Has that accelerated at all? If you could put any numbers or quantify that would be great. Thank you. Brandon Sim: Thanks, Jenny. Say hi to Dave for us. On Medicaid's, or sorry on attrition broadly, they were largely in line with expectations. Breaking that down a little bit by line of business. California Medicaid is in line. It's not a great picture. It is in line and towards the higher end of the low to mid-teens kind of range that we had provided before in terms of Medicaid attrition in California. That was within the guidance and is fully contemplated in the revised 2026 guidance that we put out. In terms of the exchange, it is actually running a little better than our 30%-40% assumption at the beginning of the year. However, out of conservatism, we're still contemplating the 30%-40% range for our full year guidance. Then Medicare, both original and Medicare Advantage, that's fairly stable. I would say really the only area if we're watching something for sure is in Medicaid. But as I mentioned, that's the source of some of the strategic rebalancing and kind of focus on taking full accountability for our members in Medi-Cal. Jenny Shan: Perfect. Thank you. Operator: Our next question is from Andrew Mok with Barclays. Please proceed. Andrew Mok: Hi. A couple questions on the revised guidance. First, you noted mid to high single digit reinvestment in the business. If you're reinvesting, say, $7+ million from the first half and still raising the guide by two and a half million, is it fair that the first half outperformed plan by $10 million or so? And is there anything driving that outperformance that's one-time in nature that wouldn't necessarily recur in the back half? Thanks. Brandon Sim: Hey, Andrew. Thanks for the question. I think probably, yes, that's fair. There are obviously puts and takes here and there, but we felt we were very happy to be able to improve guidance, admittedly by a small amount, but also reinvest, call it three quarters or so of that back into growing quicker into new markets. Some new provider partnerships that I mentioned, taking on new blocks of membership and winning organic growth, in some of our expansion markets. We believe, like I mentioned, that sets us up really nicely for continued medium-term and long-term earnings expansion. In terms of one-time items, there was not really anything large one time here. There was an immaterial net effect of prior period development. Do want to get ahead of that when we file the Q very shortly here, you will see some positive claims restatement from prior periods. That being said, there were also changes in revenue, stop loss, provider share, et cetera. On net, the prior period items were immaterial. In our view, it was purely outperformance, and we reinvested, call it around three quarters of that outperformance into future growth. Andrew Mok: Great. Just a follow-up to your response, I think to Jill Lindner's question. You noted that Q3 is the best quarter of the year from an EBITDA perspective. Why exactly is that? Is that going to have a meaningful impact to seasonality this year different from last year? Thanks. Brandon Sim: Yeah, of course. There are a couple of main reasons for that. It's primarily related to when we accrue and take some of the profitability from, for example, the MSSP program. Out of conservatism, we typically do not take any of those dollars until Q3 when we have better visibility, even if we are fairly confident that we're doing well in that program in terms of other leading metrics. There's also sweeps, for example, that we typically take in Q3. IRA is not a really large impact. As we've said before, we don't really take Part D as in dog risk, typically, and if we do, it's very minor. It's really driven by the ACO programs, and sweeps in Q3. Andrew Mok: Great. Appreciate all the color. Thank you. Brandon Sim: Thanks. Operator: Our next question is from Ryan Langston with TD Cowen. Please proceed. Ryan Langston: Thanks. Good evening. I want to go back to this $15 million revenue reduction, Chan, you called out, I think in ACO REACH. Can you elaborate what's driving that? Is that related to operations for Astrana? Maybe give us a little bit more detail how that's affecting the P&L. Did that hit all in the second quarter, and maybe how that flows through to EBITDA? Chan Basho: Hey, Ryan. How are you? The $15 million is associated with claims tied to the fraud, waste, and abuse for the ACO REACH program billings. That is a revenue reduction for 2025 periods as well as an expense reduction also for the 2025 periods. Ryan Langston: There were no impact to EBITDA? Sorry. Chan Basho: When you net it out, it's really immaterial. Ryan Langston: Okay. Got it. Then I noticed, I think management fee income was up pretty substantially in the first half of the year versus last year. Is that related to the Prospect transaction? Maybe just elaborate a bit on what's driving that. Thank you. Chan Basho: Yeah, it is related to. You should probably see that in Q3 and Q4 of last year also. It's related to the clients that Astrana began managing post the Prospect acquisition. Brandon Sim: There have also been some new client wins. I think we mentioned that on the Q4 call that started 1/1/2027. Kind of in combination, inorganic and organically, we continue to grow that business, which we're excited about. It's a nice kind of EBITDA margin business, and continues to play into the AI capabilities that we're developing in-house. Ryan Langston: Got it. Thank you. Chan Basho: Thanks, Ryan. Operator: Our next question is from Matthew Gillmor with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed. Matthew Gillmor: Hi. Thanks for the question. On the theme of automation, the slide presentation referenced a statistic about Astrana driving over 500,000 automated member encounters per month. I was kind of curious what the nature of those interactions were and what the benefit is to the company from those interactions. Brandon Sim: Hey, thanks for the question. Those are automated member interactions, including, for example, voice interactions, scheduling interactions, text messages, medication reconciliation, transitions of care, things of that nature. Letters as well or interactions, notifications pushed through our member-facing applications or websites. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, historically, the idea of risk stratification was that you would use that to limit the types of resources that our members get, simply because of the constraint on the amount of humans and time that people have. I think what's really exciting about AI partially is certainly reducing the amount of G&A. That's great, and we're doing that certainly to a large degree, as you can see in the G&A numbers. Even more exciting to me is that we truly have the ability to fulfill the potential of getting people more care, especially folks who are living in potentially more rural areas or places where it's harder for them to get to a physician's office, and being able to engage with them more frequently to support lower cost trends and lower utilization without sacrificing quality. It's a question of not having to pick and choose who you're going to engage anymore because you have limited time. Now it's a question of what kind of interventions you choose. Do you have a nurse reach out? Do you have someone go to the home? Is an AI-supported patient engagement enough? You just kind of decide when you escalate that, if necessary, into an in-person engagement. That's only going to continue to grow, I think, over time. We're excited because it means we get to not only find some G&A savings, but also, over the long run, we believe there will be AI-enabled kind of MLR improvements as well. Just to be clear, we're not underwriting that into our guidance necessarily, but we do think it'll be great for the outcomes of our patient populations. Matthew Gillmor: Got it. That's great. Then as a follow-up, on the trend discussion, I wanted to see if there was anything to call out in terms of the categories of costs that are trending better within the MA and Medicare book and the categories of costs that are maybe running a little bit higher for commercial. Anything noteworthy to call out there? Brandon Sim: Yeah, sure. Medicare has really been a broad-based strong performance. In particular, we're proud of the inpatient admits per 1,000. That's a number that continues to be extremely stable year-over-year. I think it's a testament to the care model, and the work of our teams, the work of our clinicians and providers. Really a lot of the trend is really only just the unit cost increase and not so much number of units, because the admits per care is so stable kind of a year-over-year in the Medicare book of business. In commercial, slightly above expectations. We believe it's very manageable. Commercial, of course, is only a single-digit % of revenue to begin with, but it's really concentrated in some of the outpatient specialties, interestingly, and we think we have the levers to really address that this year and don't anticipate that impacting our guidance much of at all. Matthew Gillmor: Okay. Thank you. Operator: As a reminder, just star one on your telephone keypad if you would like to ask a question. Our next question is from Matt Shea with Needham & Company. Please proceed. Matt Shea: Yeah. Hey, thanks for taking the questions. Apologies if any of this was covered. Juggling a few calls here tonight. Congrats on the wins in Hawaii and Texas. Maybe off of those, how does Hawaii fit the delegated model? What makes this market attractive? Then in Texas, maybe help us understand why the Texas ad coming in as professional risk rather than the fully delegated construct that you've been leading with since the start of this year. Is that a deliberate partial risk first on-ramp type of stance? If so, how are you thinking about the timeline to full risk? Brandon Sim: Yeah, sure thing. Hawaii's an interesting market for us as it's a market that is obviously smaller than Texas, but we like it because it represents an opportunity to quickly build a scaled provider entity, a provider group, in a state, given that, again, the size is much smaller, and there's an opportunity to do that. As you may recall, we actually entered Texas in partnership with an electronic health record company. There's also opportunities where we've been more deeply embedding our technology platform directly into the EHRs that the provider's already using in Texas. We are seeing good performance in Texas and want to continue growing our presence there. Or sorry, in Hawaii. I apologize. Well, Texas too, but Hawaii first. In Hawaii, there actually is a history of some element of delegation. There were other provider organizations in Hawaii who have some semblance of delegated risk. That's something that we're working on. Yeah, I'm sorry. In the first half, I meant Hawaii, so I apologize for misspeaking there. Texas next. Going forward in Texas, as we mentioned before, the 15,000 lives in the full risk contracts delegated, the professional lives that we're adding, the 33,000 members, are also delegated, just not in a full risk arrangement. It's a partial risk arrangement first. Those are net new members to the organization. In the full risk members, we had some gain share kind of construct for those members already, and then we moved them up the risk curve as in the second pillar of our strategy. For these members, these are net new members that we're starting off in a partial risk arrangement. It is still delegated, similar to our partial risk members in California. Going forward, as performance matures, we would hope to move them to full risk construct in Texas too. Sorry for the mix-up. Got too excited about Texas. Thanks. Matt Shea: No worries. Helpful color there, Brandon. Maybe a higher level one, just on the tech stack. Part of our thesis is that fragmented peers can't replicate the integrated data and orchestration layer that you have, even as they spend heavily on AI. It sounds like with the EBITDA performance to date, there's a good amount of reinvestment in the outlook. Curious on that reinvestment, is any of that going into incremental tech or AI innovation? Then if we take a step back, are you seeing your tech leadership relative to peers compound at this stage, or any way to think about how much you're pulling away from peers from a technological perspective? Brandon Sim: Yeah. I think the majority of the reinvestment, or really all the reinvestment that we talked about this quarter, is really first going into the provider and payer growth. I think down the line there may be prudent investment that we make in AI. A lot of that is already contemplated in our existing guidance, as we had done that in previous years and talked about that in previous years. We try to be very prudent with our AI spend. Even though we're developing things in-house, we have our own engineers. We're not training our own models ourself, but we're developing our entire orchestration stack ourselves in-house. That is being done in a very prudent way that doesn't-- We're not going to go out and spend $200 million building out AI. I think we've gotten results and ROI far and beyond what we've invested in the platform. In terms of the talent level, we are always looking for new talent, 100%. That's never going to stop. In fact, just this quarter, we added, not on the technology side necessarily, but we added two senior executives that we put out a press release about in enterprise transformation, and to lead our provider growth practice. It's something that we're always focused on. On the engineering side as well, we continue to add new engineers and upgrade that talent. I think relative to the industry, we think we are working really hard and building some cool things. Hopefully, our providers agree with that as well, and certainly, the outcomes will reflect that. Operator: There are no further questions at this time. Thank you all. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation. Before you buy stock in Astrana Health, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Astrana Health wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years. 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As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Astrana Health (ASTH) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript was originally published by The Motley Fool

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Revenue: $973 million in Q2 2026, up 49% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA: $69 million, up 43% year-over-year. Adjusted Diluted EPS: Record $0.80, up 45% year-over-year. Net Income: $20 million attributable to Astrana. Free Cash Flow: $93 million in the first half of 2026, representing approximately 69% conversion of adjusted EBITDA. Net Leverage: Declined to 2.26 times on a trailing 12-month basis. G&A as Percentage of Revenue: Improved approximately 210 basis points year-over-year in Q2; expected to be approximately 6% of revenue for the full year. Medical Cost Trend: Year-to-date overall trend slightly better than full-year assumption of approximately 5.2%. Membership: Approximately 1.5 million members in value-based arrangements; 42% of membership from full risk arrangements. Full Risk Capitation Revenue: Approximately 81% of capitation revenue from full risk arrangements. Debt Repayment: Retired $92 million of debt during the quarter. Cash Position: Ended quarter with $401 million in cash and $579 million of net debt. Q3 2026 Guidance: Revenue between $1 billion and $1.03 billion; adjusted EBITDA between $72.5 million and $77.5 million. FY 2026 Guidance: Revenue reaffirmed at $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion; adjusted EBITDA raised to $255 million to $280 million; free cash flow reaffirmed at $105 million to $132.5 million. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with ASTH. Is ASTH fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: August 06, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Astrana Health Inc (NASDAQ:ASTH) delivered strong Q2 2026 results with revenue up 49% year-over-year to $973 million and adjusted EBITDA up 43% to $69 million, with record adjusted EPS of $0.80. The company's AI-native operating system is driving significant operational efficiencies, including a 50% reduction in claims handling time and G&A as a percentage of revenue improving by 210 basis points year-over-year. Astrana Health Inc (NASDAQ:ASTH) exceeded its deleveraging commitment ahead of schedule, reducing net leverage to 2.26x on a trailing 12-month basis, well below the 2.5x target set for 24 months. The company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255-$280 million, reflecting broad-based outperformance and continued maturation of full-risk cohorts. Astrana Health Inc (NASDAQ:ASTH) continues to expand its footprint with new Medicare Advantage agreements in Hawaii and Texas, and is seeing strong demand across its payer and provider pipelines. The Prospect integration is progressing well, with gross provider retention above 99% and operating expense synergies expected at the high end of the $12-$15 million annual target. Astrana Health Inc (NASDAQ:ASTH) experienced a one-time $15 million revenue reduction in Q2 2026 related to CMS's implementation of adjustments for significant anomalous and highly suspect billing activity for the ACO REACH 2025 performance year. Commercial medical cost trend ran slightly above expectations during the quarter, concentrated in certain outpatient specialties, though management believes it is manageable. The company continues to face Medicaid-related membership attrition, tracking toward the high end of expectations, with adverse selection remaining a concern. Astrana Health Inc (NASDAQ:ASTH) is deliberately reinvesting a substantial portion of its outperformance (mid to high single-digit millions) into growth opportunities, which may delay near-term earnings acceleration. The company's Q4 2026 EBITDA guidance range is wide ($47-$67 million), implying a meaningful sequential step-down from Q3 levels, which may signal uncertainty in the back half of the year. Astrana Health Inc (NASDAQ:ASTH) continues to plan conservatively with zero contribution from HQOF and conservative Medicaid membership trends, indicating potential headwinds that could impact future performance. Q: What is driving the company's decision to transition portions of its Medi-Cal business from professional risk to full risk arrangements, and how many lives are expected to be converted?A: Brandon Sim, President and CEO, explained that the transition is driven by the desire to align performance with financial outcomes, especially amid compressing margins and disenrollments in California's Medicaid program. The company expects tens of thousands of members to move into full risk arrangements over the next 12 months, viewing this as a natural progression of its strategy to be fully accountable for the results its care model drives. Q: Can you elaborate on the $15 million revenue reduction related to ACO REACH and its impact on the P&L?A: Chandan Basho, CFO and COO, clarified that the $15 million reduction is associated with claims tied to fraud, waste, and abuse for the ACO REACH program billings. It represents a revenue reduction for 2025 periods as well as an expense reduction, resulting in an immaterial net impact on EBITDA. Q: How should we think about the company's go-forward RAF improvement, especially given the strong performance during V28, and are there internal initiatives or AI investments supporting this?A: Brandon Sim noted that the company views RAF and charting as a natural consequence of its focus on driving coordination, access, and better outcomes, not the primary motivation. While improvements in existing cohorts will continue, the blended average is impacted by new cohorts entering with different RAF profiles. The company believes there is still medium-term upside from more accurately coding its Medicare population. Q: What is driving the outperformance that allowed for the raised guidance, and is any of it one-time in nature?A: Brandon Sim confirmed that the outperformance was broad-based, with no large one-time items. There was an immaterial net effect of prior period development, including a positive claims restatement offset by changes in revenue, stop loss, and provider share. The company reinvested approximately three-quarters of the outperformance into future growth opportunities. Q: Can you provide more detail on the 500,000 automated member encounters per month and the benefit to the company?A: Brandon Sim explained that these are IVR and AI-enabled member interactions, including voice, scheduling, text messages, medication reconciliation, and transitions of care. The benefit is twofold: reducing G&A costs and, more importantly, enabling the company to engage with a larger portion of the population, especially in rural areas, to support lower cost trends and utilization without sacrificing quality. Q: How should we think about the Q4 EBITDA guidance, which implies a wide range, and are there any meaningful differences versus prior years?A: Brandon Sim attributed the width of the Q4 range to an artifact of the annualized guidance versus quarterly guidance. The Q3 and Q4 cadence is similar to past years, with Q3 typically being the better quarter and a sequential step down into Q4. He advised focusing on the midpoint rather than the range. Q: With the new Medicare Advantage wins in Texas and Hawaii, is MA the most favorable area for expansion, and should we expect MA membership to continue growing?A: Brandon Sim stated that while the model is pay-agnostic, changes in Medicaid will naturally lead to a higher percentage of revenue coming from Medicare, both Advantage and Original Medicare, going forward. The company remains confident in its success in Medicare Advantage continuing into 2027. Q: Can you discuss the medical cost trend by segment, particularly the commercial segment running above expectations?A: Brandon Sim noted that year-to-date overall trend is tracking slightly better than the guided 5.2% assumption. Medicare Advantage and Original Medicare are performing favorably, Medicaid is in line, and commercial is slightly above expectations. The commercial overage is concentrated in outpatient specialties, but the company believes it has the levers to manage it and does not anticipate a significant impact on guidance. Q: How are the G&A improvements tracking between Prospect synergies and core operational changes, and is there room for further improvement?A: Brandon Sim confirmed that G&A as a percentage of revenue improved by over 2% year-over-year in Q2, coming in at or under 6%. The improvements are a mix of capturing synergies at the top end of the $12 million to $15 million range and core operational changes in the legacy Astrana business. The company expects to exit the year at approximately 6% of revenue. Q: With some large health insurers exiting Medicaid markets or shrinking exchange footprints, how much lead time does Astrana get to contract with plans and shift membership?A: Brandon Sim explained that the company's pay-agnostic model helps insulate providers from payer exits, as members would simply switch to a different plan that Astrana has a contract with. Typically, the company gets a few months of advance notice, and its teams prepare to ensure care is not interrupted and providers are not operationally disrupted. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Company to Host Conference Call on Thursday, August 6, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. PT/5:30 p.m. ET Reports revenue of $972.5 million, up 49% year-over-year, net income of $18.5 million, up 81% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA (1) of $68.9 million, up 43% year-over-year for the three months ended June 30, 2026 Reports net cash provided by operating activities of $100.8 million and free cash flow (2) of $92.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026 ALHAMBRA, Calif., Aug. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Astrana Health, Inc. ("Astrana," and together with its subsidiaries and affiliated entities, the "Company") (NASDAQ: ASTH), a physician-centric, technology-enabled healthcare company empowering providers to deliver accessible, high-quality, and high-value care to all, today announced its consolidated financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. "Our second quarter results reflect the strength of Astrana's physician-centric, AI-native healthcare operating system and the disciplined execution of our team," said Brandon Sim, President and Chief Executive Officer of Astrana Health. "We continue to see accelerating demand from both providers and payers for our platform, driving strong growth, record-high adjusted diluted EPS, and robust free cash flow generation. Our performance gives us the confidence to raise our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 even as we reinvest a substantial portion of our first-half outperformance into attractive growth opportunities that we believe will further strengthen our earnings power over time." Financial Highlights for Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2026: All comparisons are to the three months ended June 30, 2025 unless otherwise stated. Total revenue of $972.5 million, up 49% from $654.8 million Care Partners revenue of $932.8 million, up 48% from $631.4 million Net income attributable to Astrana of $19.7 million, up 109% from $9.4 million Earnings per share ("EPS") - diluted of $0.40, up 111% from $0.19 Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $68.9 million, up 43% from $48.1 million Adjusted EPS - diluted(3) of $0.80, up 45% from $0.55 Financial Highlights for Six Months Ended June 30, 2026: All comparisons are to the six months ended June 30, 2025 unless otherwise stated. Total revenue of $1,937.6 million, up 52% from $1,275.2 million Care Partners revenue of $1,842.5 million, up 50% from $1,232.4 million Net income attributable to Astrana of $34.2 million, up 112% from $16.1 million EPS - diluted of $0.69, up 109% from $0.33 Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $135.2 million, up 60% from $84.5 million Adjusted EPS - diluted(3) of $1.54, up 59% from $0.97 Net cash provided by operating activities of $100.8 million Free cash flow(2) of $92.9 million Recent Operating Highlights Daniel Rothman joined as President of Physician Enterprise and Vishal Gupta joined as Senior Vice President of Enterprise Transformation, further strengthening the executive leadership team as the Company continues to scale its physician-centric, AI-native operating platform for value-based care. Astrana's affiliated Accountable Care Organizations ("ACOs") generated $120.4 million in gross shared savings for the 2024 performance year, and Astrana Care Partners ACO ranked seventh nationwide in net shared savings per beneficiary in its first performance year. Astrana continued to expand its Medicare Advantage footprint, including new agreements in Hawaii and Texas. The Texas agreement added approximately 3,000 new Medicare Advantage professional-risk lives. Segment Results for three months ended June 30, 2026: All comparisons are to the three months ended June 30, 2025 unless otherwise stated. 2026 Guidance: Based on the Company's existing business, current view of existing market conditions, and assumptions, Astrana is providing the following guidance for total revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ending September 30, 2026, updating Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year ending December 31, 2026, and reaffirming revenue and free cash flow guidance for the year ending December 31, 2026. See "Guidance Reconciliation of Net Income to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA," "Guidance Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Free Cash Flow," and "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for additional information. There can be no assurance that actual amounts will not be materially higher or lower than these expectations. See "Forward-Looking Statements" below for additional information. Conference Call and Webcast Information: Astrana will host a conference call at 2:30 p.m. PT/5:30 p.m. ET today (Thursday, August 6, 2026), during which management will discuss the results of the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. To participate in the conference call, please use the following dial-in numbers about 5 minutes prior to the scheduled conference call time: U.S. & Canada (Toll-Free): +1 (877) 858-9810International (Toll): +1 (201) 689-8517 The conference call can also be accessed via webcast at: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=w7Ip0KQB An accompanying slide presentation will be available in PDF format on the "IR Calendar" page of the Company's website (https://ir.astranahealth.com/news-events/ir-calendar) after issuance of the earnings release and will be furnished as an exhibit to Astrana's current report on Form 8-K to be filed with the SEC, accessible at www.sec.gov. Those who are unable to attend the live conference call may access the recording at the above webcast link, which will be made available shortly after the conclusion of the call. Note About Consolidated Entities The Company consolidates entities in which it has a controlling financial interest. The Company consolidates subsidiaries in which it holds, directly or indirectly, more than 50% of the voting rights, and variable interest entities ("VIEs") in which the Company is the primary beneficiary. Non-controlling interests represent third party equity ownership interests in the Company's consolidated entities (including certain VIEs). The amount of net income or loss attributable to non-controlling interests is disclosed in the Company's consolidated statements of income. About Astrana Health, Inc. Astrana Health is a physician-centric, AI-powered healthcare company committed to delivering high-quality, patient-centered care. Built from the physician's perspective, Astrana combines its scalable care delivery infrastructure, proprietary technology platform, and aligned provider networks to enable proactive, preventive care at scale - improving patient outcomes, enhancing patient experiences, supporting provider well-being, and driving greater value across the healthcare system. Today, Astrana supports more than 20,000 providers and approximately 1.5 million patients in value-based care arrangements through its affiliated provider networks, management services organization, and integrated care delivery clinics spanning primary, specialty, and ancillary care. Together, Astrana is building the healthcare system we all deserve - one that delivers better care, better experiences, and better outcomes for all. For more information, visit www.astranahealth.com. Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements about the Company's guidance for the quarter ending September 30, 2026 and the year ending December 31, 2026, ability to meet operational goals, ability to meet expectations in deployment of care coordination and management capabilities, ability to decrease cost of care while improving quality and outcomes, ability to deliver sustainable revenue and EBITDA growth as well as long-term value, ability to respond to the changing environment, statements about the Company's liquidity, and successful completion and implementation of strategic growth plans, acquisition strategy, and merger integration efforts, as well as statements regarding the material weakness in internal control over financial reporting and the Company's ability to remediate such material weakness in a timely manner. Forward-looking statements reflect current views with respect to future events and financial performance and therefore cannot be guaranteed. Such statements are based on the current expectations and certain assumptions of the Company's management, and some or all of such expectations and assumptions may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results. Actual results may also vary materially from forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors, known and unknown, including the risk factors described from time to time in the Company's reports to the SEC, including, without limitation the risk factors discussed in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statement made by the Company in this release speaks only as of the date on which it is made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as may be required by any applicable securities laws. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Investor [email protected] Weighted average shares of common stock outstanding – basic49,115,83549,187,88548,986,95348,831,265Weighted average shares of common stock outstanding – diluted49,778,02849,470,67749,418,27849,162,653Revenue consisted of the following (in thousands):Three Months EndedJune 30,Six Months EndedJune 30,2026202520262025Capitation, net$905,804$614,108$1,798,712$1,198,071Risk pool settlements and incentives21,81615,40234,30229,893Management fee income13,2112,57728,8964,887Fee-for-service, net22,98217,87860,81332,769Other revenue8,7074,84314,8979,576Capitation and other revenue, net$972,520$654,808$1,937,620$1,275,196 The following table provides a reconciliation of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash reported within the condensed consolidated balance sheets that sum to the total amounts of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash shown in the condensed consolidated statements of cash flows (in thousands): Reconciliation of Net Income to EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin Set forth below are reconciliations of Net Income to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA, as well as the reconciliations to Adjusted EBITDA margin for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025. The Company defines Adjusted EBITDA margin as Adjusted EBITDA over total revenue. Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Astrana and Adjusted EPS - Diluted Set forth below are reconciliations of net income to adjusted net income attributable to Astrana as well as the reconciliation to adjusted EPS - diluted for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025. The Company has not provided a quantitative reconciliation of EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ending September 30, 2026 to the most comparable GAAP measure on a forward-looking basis within this press release because the Company is unable, without unreasonable efforts, to provide reconciling information with respect to certain line items that cannot be calculated for the three month period. These items, which could materially affect the computation of forward-looking GAAP net income, are inherently uncertain and depend on various factors, some of which are outside of the Company's control. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures This press release contains the non-GAAP financial measures EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income attributable to Astrana, and adjusted EPS – diluted, of which the most directly comparable financial measure presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") is net income. This press release also contains the non-GAAP financial measure free cash flow, of which the most directly comparable financial measure presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP is net cash provided by operating activities. These measures are not in accordance with, or alternatives to, GAAP, and may be calculated differently from similar non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies. We use Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted EPS – diluted, and free cash flow as supplemental performance measures of our operations, for financial and operational decision-making, and as supplemental means of evaluating period-to-period comparisons on a consistent basis and, for free cash flow, to reflect the cash flow trends in our business. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as earnings before interest expense, interest income, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization, excluding income or loss from equity method investments, non-recurring and non-cash transactions, and stock-based compensation. We define Adjusted EBITDA margin as Adjusted EBITDA over total revenue. Adjusted net income attributable to Astrana is calculated as net income, excluding income or loss from equity method investments, non-recurring and non-cash transactions, stock-based compensation, amortization of intangible assets attributable to acquisitions, certain tax adjustments, and amounts related to net income or loss attributable to non-controlling interests. We define adjusted EPS – diluted as adjusted net income attributable to Astrana over weighted average shares of common stock outstanding – diluted. We define free cash flow as net cash provided by operating activities minus cash used in purchases of property and equipment. We believe the presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures provides investors with relevant and useful information, as it allows investors to evaluate the operating performance of the business activities without having to account for differences recognized because of non-core or non-recurring financial information. When GAAP financial measures are viewed in conjunction with non-GAAP financial measures, investors are provided with a more meaningful understanding of our ongoing operating performance. In addition, these non-GAAP financial measures are among those indicators we use as a basis for evaluating operational performance, allocating resources, and planning and forecasting future periods. Non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to be considered in isolation, or as a substitute for, GAAP financial measures. Other companies may calculate EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income attributable to Astrana, adjusted EPS – diluted, and free cash flow differently, limiting the usefulness of these measures for comparative purposes. To the extent this press release contains historical or future non-GAAP financial measures, we have provided corresponding GAAP financial measures for comparative purposes. The reconciliations between certain GAAP and non-GAAP measures are provided above. View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/astrana-health-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302845350.html

Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.4 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.31 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.19 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +29.03%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.29 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.74, delivering a surprise of +155.17%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. Astrana Health, Inc., which belongs to the Zacks Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare industry, posted revenues of $972.52 million for the quarter ended June 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.85%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $654.81 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Astrana Health, Inc. shares have added about 44.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.8%. While Astrana Health, Inc. has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Astrana Health, Inc. was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.36 on $1.01 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.18 on $4.01 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year. Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare is currently in the top 30% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. One other stock from the broader Zacks Medical sector, HealthEquity (HQY), is yet to report results for the quarter ended July 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 27. This provider of services for managing health care accounts is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.19 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +10.2%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. HealthEquity's revenues are expected to be $350.23 million, up 7.5% from the year-ago quarter. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) : Free Stock Analysis Report HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Interested in Astrana Health, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Strong second-quarter results: Revenue rose 49% year over year to $973 million, adjusted EBITDA increased 43% to $69 million, and adjusted diluted EPS reached a record $0.80. Free cash flow totaled $93 million in the first half, helping reduce net leverage to 2.26 times adjusted EBITDA. Guidance raised: Astrana lifted its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $255 million-$280 million while maintaining revenue guidance of $3.8 billion-$4.1 billion and free-cash-flow guidance of $105 million-$132.5 million. The company plans to reinvest above-plan performance into provider partnerships, payer contracts, market expansion and acquisitions. Value-based care and integration remain central: The company had about 1.5 million value-based-care members, with 81% of capitation revenue from full-risk arrangements, and expects further growth from new Medicare agreements and Medicaid rebalancing. Prospect Health integration is ahead of plan, with provider retention above 99%, synergies trending toward the high end of the $12 million-$15 million target, and AI-enabled workflows reducing administrative handling times by more than 50%. Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $973 million, up 49% from a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA increased 43% to $69 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share reached a record $0.80, up 45% year over year, as the company cited growth in value-based care arrangements, medical-cost management, Prospect Health acquisition synergies and operating leverage. President and Chief Executive Officer Brandon Sim said the company generated $93 million in free cash flow during the first half of 2026, converting approximately 69% of adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow. Astrana used its cash generation to reduce debt, with net leverage declining to 2.26 times trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, ahead of its prior goal of reaching less than 2.5 times within 24 months of the Prospect acquisition. → 3 Drone Stocks That Should Soar After the Summer Slump Astrana raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to $255 million to $280 million, citing broad-based performance ahead of plan, the maturation of full-risk cohorts, Prospect synergies and operating leverage. The company reaffirmed revenue guidance of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion and free-cash-flow guidance of $105 million to $132.5 million. For the third quarter, Astrana projected revenue of $1 billion to $1.03 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $72.5 million to $77.5 million. → Meta’s Earnings Drop Shows Wall Street Wants More Than Ad Growth Sim said the company is reinvesting a substantial portion of its performance above plan into provider and payer growth opportunities. Those investments are expected to total the mid- to high-single-digit millions of dollars during 2026 and include expansion in core and new markets, new payer contracts, planned provider partnerships, tuck-in acquisitions and recently converted risk cohorts. Chief Operating and Financial Officer Chandan Basho said the second-quarter revenue figure included a one-time $15 million reduction tied to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ implementation of adjustments for significant anomalous and highly suspect billing activity in the ACO REACH program’s 2025 performance year. He said the associated expense reduction meant the net EBITDA effect was immaterial. → Jersey Mike's Serves Fresh Gains After IPO Stumble At the end of the quarter, Astrana had about 1.5 million members in value-based arrangements. Approximately 81% of capitation revenue and 42% of membership came from full-risk arrangements, Sim said. The company signed new Medicare Advantage agreements in Hawaii and Texas and expanded existing relationships in California. In Texas, Astrana added roughly 3,000 Medicare Advantage professional-risk lives with a payer that selected it as a risk partner. Sim said the company’s existing delegated full-risk partnership in Texas continued to perform in line with underwriting expectations after two full quarters of operation. Astrana also plans new physician partnerships in the South and on the East Coast that it expects will begin contributing revenue in 2027. The company said it remains payer-agnostic, though it expects Medicare Advantage and original Medicare to represent a higher percentage of revenue over time given expected Medicaid changes. Medical cost trend for the year to date has tracked slightly better than the company’s full-year assumption of approximately 5.2%, according to Sim. Medicare Advantage and original Medicare performed favorably relative to expectations, while Medicaid trends were in line with expectations. Commercial costs ran slightly above expectations, primarily in certain outpatient specialties, though management said commercial represents only a single-digit percentage of revenue and that it has levers to address the trend. Sim said inpatient admissions per 1,000 members in Astrana’s Medicare business were relatively flat year over year during the first half. The company’s flagship MSSP ACO ranked seventh among 476 ACOs nationally in net shared savings per beneficiary for the 2024 performance year, while its flagship ACO REACH entity ranked in the top 15% nationally in net shared savings. Astrana said membership changes during the quarter were mainly driven by Medicaid-related attrition that had already been incorporated into its guidance. California Medicaid attrition was at the higher end of the company’s previously discussed low- to mid-teens range, while exchange-product attrition was running somewhat better than Astrana’s prior expectation of 30% to 40%. Medicare Advantage and original Medicare membership were described as stable. In California, the company is moving portions of its Medi-Cal membership from professional-risk arrangements to full-risk arrangements, responding to changes in the state Medicaid program. Sim said the transition is intended to better align Astrana’s clinical outcomes with its financial results, particularly as margins compress and enrollment declines. The company expects “tens of thousands” of members to transition to these full-risk arrangements over the next 12 months, though it did not quantify the earnings impact. Management said it expects Medicaid policy changes beginning Jan. 1, 2027, but reaffirmed its expectation for mid- to high-teens EBITDA growth over the medium term. July 1 marked the one-year anniversary of Astrana’s acquisition of Prospect Health. Sim said the company has integrated Prospect’s clinical operations, technology workflows and operating framework into Astrana’s platform. Gross provider retention has remained above 99%, and management continues to expect operating-expense synergies toward the high end of its annual $12 million to $15 million target. Medical cost trend within the legacy Prospect business has run slightly ahead of expectations, Sim said, although he added that the company has established the operational and clinical foundation it believes can support further improvement. Astrana said its technology and AI-enabled workflows are also contributing to lower administrative costs. AI-supported processes in claims operations and referral management reduced handling times by more than 50%, creating capacity equivalent to about 60 full-time employees over the past 12 months, according to Sim. General and administrative expenses improved by approximately 210 basis points as a percentage of revenue from the prior-year quarter. Astrana expects G&A to be about 6% of revenue as it exits 2026. Management said future efficiency gains should come from both continued Prospect synergies and operational changes across the legacy Astrana platform. Astrana Health, Inc, Inc, a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients. It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected]. The article "Astrana Health Q2 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat. View MarketBeat's top stocks for August 2026.

ALHAMBRA, Calif., July 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Astrana Health, Inc. ("Astrana," and together with its subsidiaries and affiliated entities, the "Company") (NASDAQ: ASTH), a physician-centric, technology-enabled healthcare company empowering providers to deliver accessible, high-quality, and high-value care to all, today announced that it will release financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, after the close of the stock market on Thursday, August 6, 2026. The Company will discuss those results on a conference call at 2:30 p.m. PT/5:30 p.m. ET that same day. Participant Dial-in Numbers: 877-858-9810 / +1 201-689-8517 To access the call, please dial in approximately five minutes before start time. An accompanying slide presentation will be available in PDF format on the "IR Calendar" page of the Company's website (https://ir.astranahealth.com/news-events/ir-calendar) after issuance of the earnings release. Webcast:The call will also be available via online webcast at: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=w7Ip0KQBThose who are unable to attend the live conference call may access the recording at the above webcast link, which will be made available shortly after the conclusion of the call. About Astrana Health, Inc. Astrana Health is a physician-centric, AI-powered healthcare company committed to delivering high-quality, patient-centered care. Built from the physician's perspective, Astrana combines its scalable care delivery infrastructure, proprietary technology platform, and aligned provider networks to enable proactive, preventive care at scale - improving patient outcomes, enhancing patient experiences, supporting provider well-being, and driving greater value across the healthcare system. Today, Astrana supports more than 20,000 providers and approximately 1.55 million patients in value-based care arrangements through its affiliated provider networks, management services organization, and integrated care delivery clinics spanning primary, specialty, and ancillary care. Together, Astrana is building the healthcare system we all deserve - one that delivers better care, better experiences, and better outcomes for all. For more information, visit www.astranahealth.com. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Investor [email protected] View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/astrana-health-inc-schedules-2026-second-quarter-financial-results-release-and-conference-call-302825414.html

As the Q1 earnings season comes to a close, it’s time to take stock of this quarter’s best and worst performers in the healthcare technology for providers industry, including Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) and its peers. The healthcare technology sector provides software and data analytics to help hospitals and clinics streamline operations and improve patient outcomes, often through value-based care models. Future growth is expected as providers prioritize digital transformation to manage rising costs and patient demands. Tailwinds include the adoption of AI-driven tools and government incentives for digitization. There are challenges as well, including long sales cycles and slow adoption by providers, who may be resistance to change. Tightening hospital budgets and cybersecurity threats are additional risks that could slow adoption. The 4 healthcare technology for providers stocks we track reported a strong Q1. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 1.1% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was in line. Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 5.6% on average since the latest earnings results. Formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings until early 2024, Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) operates a technology-powered healthcare platform that enables physicians to deliver coordinated care while successfully participating in value-based payment models. Astrana Health reported revenues of $965.1 million, up 55.6% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 1.9%. Overall, it was a satisfactory quarter for the company with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates but full-year revenue guidance slightly missing analysts’ expectations. "We had a strong start to 2026, delivering disciplined growth, strong medical cost performance, continued operating leverage, and early performance from new full-risk contracts in line with our expectations," said Brandon Sim, President and Chief Executive Officer of Astrana Health. Astrana Health pulled off the fastest revenue growth but had the weakest full-year guidance update of the whole group. Unsurprisingly, the stock is up 5.3% since reporting and currently trades at $38. Is now the time to buy Astrana Health? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free. Driven by the vision of an "Autonomous Pharmacy" with zero medication errors, Omnicell (NASDAQ:OMCL) provides medication management automation and adherence tools that help healthcare systems and pharmacies reduce errors and improve efficiency. Omnicell reported revenues of $309.9 million, up 14.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 1.8%. The business had an exceptional quarter with EBITDA guidance for next quarter exceeding analysts’ expectations and a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates. The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 18.1% since reporting. It currently trades at $44.44. Is now the time to buy Omnicell? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free. Founded in 2011 to transform how healthcare is delivered to patients with complex needs, Evolent Health (NYSE:EVH) provides specialty care management services and technology solutions that help health plans and providers deliver better care for patients with complex conditions. Evolent Health reported revenues of $496.2 million, up 2.6% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 6.9%. It was a mixed quarter as it posted a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates but a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates. Evolent Health delivered the highest full-year guidance raise but had the weakest performance against analyst estimates and slowest revenue growth in the group. Interestingly, the stock is up 3.1% since the results and currently trades at $3.95. Read our full analysis of Evolent Health’s results here. Operating in 13 states and the District of Columbia with over 4,300 providers serving more than 4.8 million patients, Privia Health (NASDAQ:PRVA) is a technology-driven company that helps physicians optimize their practices, improve patient experiences, and transition to value-based care models. Privia Health reported revenues of $603.8 million, up 25.8% year on year. This result beat analysts’ expectations by 7.4%. More broadly, it was a mixed quarter as it also recorded a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates but a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates. Privia Health delivered the biggest analyst estimates beat among its peers. The stock is down 4.1% since reporting and currently trades at $23. Read our full, actionable report on Privia Health here, it’s free. Late in 2025 into early 2026, there was hand wringing around artificial intelligence. For software companies, the fear was that AI would erode pricing power and compress margins as new tools made it easier to replicate what once required expensive enterprise platforms. Crypto investors had their own version of the same anxiety: if AI agents could trade, allocate capital, and manage wallets autonomously, what exactly was the long-term value of today’s crypto infrastructure? These concerns triggered a noticeable rotation away from these sectors and into safer havens. But markets rarely dwell on one narrative for long. Spring 2026 came, and the focus shifted abruptly from technological disruption to geopolitical risk. 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Earlier in May 2026, Astrana Health reported first-quarter revenue of US$965.1 million and net income of US$14.44 million, reaffirmed its 2026 revenue outlook, announced Chief Medical Officer Dinesh Kumar’s pending resignation, and named George Christides as Interim National Medical Director to oversee population health initiatives. Astrana Health and the Physician Association of California also revealed a collaboration that plugs independent primary care practices into Astrana’s in-house, AI-powered accountable care platform, expanding access to care management, analytics, and value-based care infrastructure. We’ll now examine how Astrana’s strong first-quarter results and expanded collaboration with independent physicians could influence its investment narrative. Uncover the next big thing with 27 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward. To own Astrana Health, you have to believe its value based care, full risk model and in house technology can offset reimbursement and regulatory pressures on government funded plans. The big near term catalyst is whether management can translate its AI powered platform and Prospect integration into cleaner margins, and the key risk remains policy and funding shifts around Medicare Advantage and Medicaid. The latest results and leadership shuffle do not appear to change those pillars in a material way. The new collaboration with the Physician Association of California looks particularly relevant, because it plugs more independent physicians into Astrana’s accountable care platform at a time when 78% of its revenue is already tied to full risk arrangements. If this partnership helps deepen physician engagement and scale use of Astrana’s data infrastructure, it could reinforce the core catalyst of expanding recurring, value based revenue while also testing how well the model performs as risk concentration increases. Yet behind Astrana’s growth story, investors should be aware that heavy exposure to government programs could quickly become a problem if... Read the full narrative on Astrana Health (it's free!) Astrana Health's narrative projects $4.6 billion revenue and $112.0 million earnings by 2029. This requires 13.4% yearly revenue growth and an $89.5 million earnings increase from $22.5 million today. Uncover how Astrana Health's forecasts yield a $36.00 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price. Before this news, the most bullish analysts were counting on revenues reaching about US$4.8 billion and earnings of roughly US$170 million, which is a much more optimistic take than consensus and assumes full risk growth and tight cost control play out almost perfectly; this latest quarter and the PAC partnership may support that view or expose its limits, so it is worth comparing these assumptions with your own to see where you stand. Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Astrana Health - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price! Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own. A great starting point for your Astrana Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Our free Astrana Health research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Astrana Health's overall financial health at a glance. Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped: Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 88 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution. Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 45 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow. Explore 26 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include ASTH. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]

Astrana Health’s first quarter was marked by progress in platform integration and the expansion of its AI-driven care model, leading to strong revenue growth and positive market reaction. Management credited the quarter’s momentum to disciplined growth in value-based care, successful integration of the Prospect acquisition, and increasing adoption of full-risk contracts. CEO Brandon Sim noted, “Our results increasingly reflect the advantages of the platform we have built and the way we are embedding AI across our platform.” The company also saw material operating leverage, with improvements in general and administrative efficiency and early returns from new risk-bearing arrangements. Is now the time to buy ASTH? Find out in our full research report (it’s free). Revenue: $965.1 million vs analyst estimates of $946.7 million (55.6% year-on-year growth, 1.9% beat) Adjusted EPS: $0.74 vs analyst estimates of $0.65 (13.8% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $66.3 million vs analyst estimates of $64.94 million (6.9% margin, 2.1% beat) The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $3.95 billion at the midpoint EBITDA guidance for the full year is $265 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $267 million Operating Margin: 3%, in line with the same quarter last year Market Capitalization: $2.22 billion While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention. Jack Slevin (Jefferies) asked about trends in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid enrollment versus expectations. CEO Brandon Sim outlined that Medicare enrollment showed mid-single-digit growth, Medicaid disenrollment was slightly higher than forecast, but overall trends were balanced by favorable acuity. Ryan Daniels (William Blair) inquired about further G&A efficiency opportunities from AI and commercialization of the Care Enablement platform. Sim detailed ongoing AI-driven workflow improvements and noted rapid growth and strong margins in the Care Enablement business. Jailendra Singh (Truist Securities) pressed on management’s confidence in reaching the 2027 EBITDA target following regulatory changes and recent performance. Sim emphasized the platform’s adaptability and reiterated belief in mid- to high-teens organic EBITDA growth. Craig Jones (Bank of America) questioned the impact of potential CMS risk adjustment model changes. Sim expressed that Astrana’s conservative, encounter-based approach positions it well for any shift toward AI-inferred risk scoring by regulators. Michael Ha (Baird) probed differences between Astrana’s AI-native platform and peers’ fragmented systems. Sim explained that Astrana’s internally built, unified data infrastructure enables comprehensive AI integration and is difficult for competitors to replicate. In coming quarters, the StockStory team will focus on (1) tracking the pace of full-risk membership expansion and the maturation of these contracts, (2) monitoring incremental operating leverage from AI-enabled workflows and continued integration of Prospect, and (3) assessing the impact of regulatory developments on Medicare Advantage and Medicaid enrollment dynamics. Updates on new market entries, particularly in Texas, will also be important signposts. Astrana Health currently trades at $40.00, up from $36.08 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members). ONE MORE THING: Top 6 Stocks for This Week. This market is separating quality stocks from expensive ones fast. AI taking down whole sectors with no warning. In a rotation this fast, you need more than a list of good companies. Our AI system flagged Palantir before it ran 1,662%. AppLovin before it ran 753%. Nvidia before it ran 1,178%. Each week it produces 6 new names that pass the same tests. Get Our Top 6 Stocks for Free HERE. Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.