B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
+1.2% vs current
ASTH
Astrana HealthANasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-22
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
-20.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
-38.4% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+30.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+30.0
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+33.8
Score
AI commentary
This is still a monitoring-style post-earnings memo, not a high-conviction upgrade. The primary company release and 10-Q support a better near-term operating read, and the stock appeared to confirm that initially: by May 9, 2026, ASTH traded at $39.30 versus a $36.03 prior close, about a 9% move higher. But the deterministic prior remains negative, catalyst density is still only modest, and checked sources did not provide a dependable T+3 analyst-revision slate, so the positive price reaction should not be treated as full thesis validation yet.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-06catalystQ2 and full-year execution against reiterated outlookHigh impact
Q1 revenue of $965.1M and adjusted EBITDA of $66.3M came in strong enough for management to reiterate Q2 revenue guidance of $965M-$1.0B, Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $65M-$70M, and full-year revenue of $3.8B-$4.1B with adjusted EBITDA of $250M-$280M. The next print now matters more than the headline beat because the stock already reacted positively and the setup shifts to proving that post-Prospect growth, margin discipline, and cash conversion are sustainable [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-11-05eventProspect integration and full-risk contract conversion need another quarter of proofHigh impact
The 10-Q attributes much of the year-over-year revenue increase to the Prospect acquisition, which contributed $300.2M of revenue in the quarter, while also citing revenue lift from members transitioning to full risk through Restricted Knox-Keene plans. Management also highlighted that about 80% of Care Partners capitation revenue and about 40% of consolidated membership are now in full-risk arrangements, including a Texas payer launch above 14,000 Medicare Advantage members. If this expansion holds with stable medical cost performance, the market can support a better earnings-power view; if integration, utilization, or reserve assumptions slip, sentiment can reverse quickly [#10-Q-2026-05-08] [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2027-03-31catalystFree-cash-flow and deleveraging path could support a rerating if controls improveHigh impact
Astrana reported Q1 operating cash flow of $68.1M and free cash flow of $64.1M, while highlighting net leverage of roughly 2.3x on a pro forma trailing basis and 2.2x versus the midpoint of full-year guidance. The longer-duration upside case is that recurring cash generation, debt paydown, and a broader physician-network platform translate into a cleaner multiple; however, that case still competes with unresolved internal-control remediation and acquisition-accounting complexity [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology