B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ASTH
Astrana HealthCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.8
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+30.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+64.5
Score
AI commentary
The official Q2 filing provides a clearly positive operating narrative through strong year-over-year results and higher adjusted EBITDA guidance. A secondary MarketBeat earnings page displayed an August 7 close of $35.76, up 4.78%, followed by an extended-hours quote of $35.05, down 1.99%, suggesting a positive regular-session reaction with some after-hours giveback. The same page listed provisional consensus references but no actual beat/miss fields. No verified post-print analyst target revisions are available, and social coverage is unavailable; the thesis remains a cautious hold rather than a high-confidence upgrade.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-06eventStrong Q2 print and higher FY2026 EBITDA guidanceHigh impact
Q2 revenue rose 49% year over year to $972.5 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 43% to $68.9 million, adjusted EPS rose 45% to $0.80, and management raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255-$280 million while reaffirming revenue and free-cash-flow guidance. One secondary estimate page listed $0.34 EPS consensus and $985.62 million expected revenue, but its actual fields were unavailable; the earnings surprise is therefore only provisional. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
2026-09-30catalystQ3 execution against updated operating targetsMedium impact
Q3 guidance of $1.00-$1.03 billion revenue and $72.5-$77.5 million adjusted EBITDA provides the next dated test of growth, margin conversion, and execution after the Q2 report. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
2026-12-31catalystScaling full-risk value-based careHigh impact
New Hawaii and Texas agreements, including approximately 3,000 additional Texas Medicare Advantage professional-risk lives, plus $120.4 million of gross shared savings generated by affiliated ACOs, support a longer-term scaling thesis. Multiple quarters of execution are still required. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology