B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ASTE
Astec IndustriesANasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-01
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+66.9
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source operating evidence is mixed: strong Materials orders and backlog contrast with reduced full-year guidance. A September 4 Zacks article said shares had fallen about 4% since earnings, but that dated observation is not a current price-reaction measure. Validated analyst revisions, social coverage and options data are unavailable; the numerical sentiment fields above should be treated as unavailable, not measured zeroes.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-01
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-05eventQ2 sales and backlog growthMedium impact
Astec reported Q2 sales of $408.1 million, up 23.6% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $42.6 million, up 26.0%, and backlog of $601.1 million, up 57.9%. Materials Solutions orders were strong, but the August results are already public. [#8-K-2026-08-05] SEC Exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000039/aste-20260630xexx991.htm
2026-08-05catalystReduced FY2026 EBITDA outlookMedium impact
Management lowered FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance from $170–190 million to $160–175 million, citing shipment timing for asphalt plants. Infrastructure Solutions orders fell 20.0% sequentially and book-to-bill was 89.5%; subsequent order and shipment evidence will determine whether the delay persists. [#8-K-2026-08-05] SEC Exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000039/aste-20260630xexx991.htm
2026-12-31catalystMaterials backlog conversionHigh impact
Materials Solutions ended Q2 with $312.5 million of backlog and a 142.2% book-to-bill ratio. Sustained deliveries and margin conversion would support upside, but backlog is not guaranteed revenue; the date is a monitoring horizon, not an announced milestone. [#8-K-2026-08-05] SEC Exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000039/aste-20260630xexx991.htm
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-01 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology