B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
+35.6% vs current
ARWR
ArrowheadANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
+15.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
-15.3% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.6
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+63.0
Score
AI commentary
Recent headline flow is favorable because it combines the Madrigal ARO-PNPLA3 license, the REDEMPLO EU regulatory setup, and multiple near-dated May scientific presentations [#10-Q-2026-05-07] [#PR-2026-05-04]. Even so, the deterministic prior only points to modest forward returns, visible analyst-revision coverage is thin in the packet, and the latest primary evidence still says more about option value and regulatory progress than about already-proven multi-quarter commercial traction. The peer read is now anchored to more direct operating reference points in apoC-III, RNAi commercialization, and MASH partnering rather than broad large-cap pharma comps, but the overall memo remains cautious and monitoring-oriented rather than aggressively bullish.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-26catalystLate-May plozasiran and obesity presentations are the next near-term evidence checkpointsMedium impact
Arrowhead scheduled late-May 2026 presentations that could refine how investors view both commercial-supportive plozasiran evidence and obesity-platform optionality, including a May 26, 2026 plozasiran presentation at EAS 2026 and a May 27-30, 2026 ARO-INHBE presentation at EASL 2026 [#PR-2026-05-04]. These are useful validation checkpoints, but more likely incremental than thesis-changing unless the data materially sharpen differentiation.
2026-06-30eventEuropean Commission decision on REDEMPLO is the clearest dated regulatory triggerHigh impact
Arrowhead's March 31, 2026 10-Q says REDEMPLO received a positive CHMP opinion and that the European Commission is expected to issue its marketing-authorization decision in the second calendar quarter of 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-07]. A positive outcome would extend the first commercial asset into another major geography, while any delay would undercut the current post-approval expansion narrative.
2026-07-15catalystMid-2026 plozasiran Phase 3 completion remains the main expansion-value inflectionHigh impact
Arrowhead said plozasiran in severe hypertriglyceridemia remains on schedule to complete the SHASTA-3, SHASTA-4, and MUIR-3 Phase 3 studies in mid-2026 and that it intends to submit a supplemental NDA by year-end 2026 [#PR-2025-12-02]. This is still the most important longer-duration value lever because it would move plozasiran beyond the current FCS launch toward a broader cardiometabolic market.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology