B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARW
Arrow ElectronicsBNYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 results materially exceeded guidance, while management cited recovery across both segments, improving book-to-bill, and backlog growth [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]. Arrow's Q2 outlook called for $9.15-$9.75 billion of sales and $4.32-$4.52 non-GAAP EPS; confirmation or improvement would support the bull case.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
No clearly dated post-print analyst estimate revision, rating change, target change, or price reaction is confirmed; the available secondary analyst snapshot has unclear timing and should not be treated as post-earnings evidence.
Momentum
84
Value
67
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $222.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $195.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $235.00
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +11.7
Value67 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -0.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • No clearly dated post-print analyst estimate revision, rating change, target change, or price reaction is confirmed; the available secondary analyst snapshot has unclear timing and should not be treated as post-earnings evidence.
- • Q1 strength does not guarantee Q2 continuation; execution, margin, demand, and guidance risk remain concentrated around the August 6 checkpoint.
- • The Q2 result and post-release market reaction are not yet available because Arrow's official IR calendar schedules the earnings call for August 6.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 2026 earnings checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.7
Δ21d
+19.3
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+6.7
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 84.4 / Value 67.3 / Sentiment 56.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$222.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.22B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
50.91M
P/E (TTM)
12.5
P/S (TTM)
0.20
P/FCF (TTM)
61.82
Rev YoY
+31.8%
EPS YoY
+46.6%
Gross Margin
+10.9%
Op Margin
+3.8%
Net Debt
$3.04B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data