AROW

Arrow FinancialC

Nasdaq / Banks

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$40.00

+8.1% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$34.50

-6.7% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$31.00

-16.2% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-29

AI commentary

This is a cautious monitoring memo. The primary-source set is real and useful on the February 26, 2026 merger announcement and January 29, 2026 earnings release, but this scheduled T+3 earnings follow-up did not surface a confirmed Q1 2026 company filing or release by April 29, 2026, so surprise data, guidance changes, analyst target revisions, and true post-print market-reaction attribution remain unavailable. Coverage is thin and headline buzz is low, so confidence stays below average.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-29

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-08catalystMissing company-source Q1 follow-up keeps the stock in monitoring modeMedium impact

For this scheduled T+3 earnings follow-up, no Arrow Q1 2026 earnings release, 8-K, or 10-Q was confirmed from the company filings pages and SEC recent-submission checks completed in this run, leaving surprise, guidance, and revision signals unavailable as of April 29, 2026.

2026-05-08catalyst2025 operating momentum needs to carry into 2026Medium impact

Arrow’s January 29, 2026 earnings release showed record Q4 net income of $14.0 million, full-year net income of $44.0 million, record 2025 net interest margin of 3.19%, and a dividend increase to $0.30 per share; a clean carryover would support the stock, but the Q1 2026 company-source print was not yet confirmed in this review [#PR-2026-01-29].

2026-06-30eventAdirondack merger close remains the clearest re-rating eventHigh impact

Arrow said the Adirondack Bancorp transaction is expected to close by the end of Q2 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals, and framed the deal as roughly 18% accretive to 2027 EPS with a 2.9-year tangible book earnback [#8-K-2026-02-26].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology