B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARIS
Aris MiningBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-13
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+24.3
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+24.3
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-24.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+53.0
Score
AI commentary
The SEC-filed earnings release is modestly constructive on production guidance, cash generation, and Marmato progress, but the post-print market reaction and analyst revision signal are unavailable. Social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment data are also unavailable; the zero placeholders indicate missing data, not neutral readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-13
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-31catalystQ2 results support profitability but leave a mixed near-term readMedium impact
The SEC-filed Q2 2026 release reported 73.7 koz of gold production, $321 million of revenue, $179 million of adjusted EBITDA, and $426 million of cash after $121 million of quarterly capital investment. No verified consensus comparison, analyst revision, or post-print attribution is available, so upside from the print may be limited [#SEC-6K-2026-07-29] [#PR-2026-07-29].
2026-12-31eventMarmato first-gold and funding checkpointsHigh impact
The 5,000-tpd Marmato CIP plant remains scheduled for first gold in Q4 2026. Completion capital and commissioning execution remain important because total 2026 Marmato investment is approximately $238 million versus the original $220 million budget, with about $118 million remaining through year-end [#SEC-6K-2026-07-29] [#PR-2026-07-29].
2026-12-31eventSegovia back-end-loaded production rampMedium impact
Management expects higher second-half production from underground development, haulage expansion, and new ramp capacity. The setup is execution-sensitive because Q2 Segovia production was 64.4 koz and owner-mining AISC increased to $1,767 per ounce, while the ramp benefits are expected later in Q3 and Q4 [#SEC-6K-2026-07-29] [#PR-2026-07-29].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-13 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology