B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
+34.5% vs current
APPS
Digital TurbineANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.90
+4.1% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.70
-33.3% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+52.7
Score
AI commentary
Primary evidence is strongest in the 8-K and 10-K, while the surrounding news flow is secondary but supportive: market coverage describes roughly a 53% one-day surge after the print, and the post-earnings tape also includes a BofA upgrade. That said, analyst coverage in the packet is thin and the balance sheet still matters more than the one-day reaction, so this remains a monitored turnaround rather than a clean de-risked breakout.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-26eventFiscal 2026 results and FY27 outlook above current estimatesHigh impact
The May 26 8-K press release reported Q4 revenue of $142.5 million (+20% YoY), GAAP EPS of ($0.06), non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.16, and FY26 revenue of $565.3 million (+15%). Management also guided FY27 revenue to $630 million-$650 million and adjusted EBITDA to $135 million-$145 million, which it said is above current estimates. That gives APPS a fresh beat-and-raise narrative, even if the move has already become partially crowded into the post-print rally. [#8-K-2026-05-26]
2026-08-26catalystOperating momentum and AI/data monetization can support a steadier reratingHigh impact
Management said fiscal 2026 returned the business to double-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, with notable gross-margin expansion, and highlighted first-party data, AI tools, and partnerships as key contributors. If those drivers continue into fiscal 2027, the company can keep converting execution improvement into a higher-quality earnings profile rather than a one-quarter pop. [#8-K-2026-05-26]
2026-12-31catalystDebt refinancing and covenant pressure remain the main bear caseHigh impact
The 10-K says the company is seeking to refinance certain tranches, has no further borrowing capacity under the financing agreement, and cannot guarantee refinancing on commercially reasonable terms. It also discloses $391.15 million of secured indebtedness at March 31, 2026 and notes that failure to refinance could bring extra fees, dilution, or covenant stress. [#10-K-2026-05-26]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology