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Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-08

Aemetis (AMTX) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript

Motley Fool

Image source: The Motley Fool. Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 2 p.m. ET Chief Financial Officer — Todd Waltz Chief Executive Officer — Eric McAfee President and Chief Operating Officer — Andy Foster Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email [email protected] Todd Waltz: Thank you, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For 2026, revenue grew 27% to $54.6 million compared with $42.9 million in 2025, with growth across each of the three reportable operating segments. Gross profit was $2.8 million in the quarter, a year-over-year improvement of nearly $8 million from the gross loss of $5.1 million in 2025. Operating loss improved approximately 60% to $6.3 million compared with $15.6 million in the prior period. Net loss improved to $21.7 million compared to $24.5 million in 2025. Production tax credits under 45C contributed $4 million of operating income during the quarter, $1.4 million in dairy RNG and $2.6 million in California ethanol, representing our first quarter of ongoing credit generation tied to quarterly production since 45z eligibility was established in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was negative $1.3 million, reflecting typical winter seasonality with stronger revenue and margin performance later in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA and a reconciliation of EBITDA to net loss are described in our earnings release issued earlier today. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $4.8 million, comparable to year-end 2025. Capital investments in carbon intensity reduction and dairy digester construction totaled $6.5 million during the quarter. With that overview, I will turn the call over to Eric. Eric McAfee: Thank you, Todd. I want to highlight three key takeaways from 2026. First, Q1 was a financial inflection point. We grew consolidated revenue 27% year-over-year, posted positive gross profit, and improved operating loss by more than $9 million. All three of our reportable operating segments contributed to this result. Second, we benefited from the California Air...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-08

Aemetis Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat

Interested in Aemetis, Inc? Here are five stocks we like better. "Financial inflection point": Q1 revenue rose 27% to $54.6 million and gross profit swung to $2.8 million from a year-ago loss, with production tax credits under Section 45Z contributing $4 million of operating income (dairy RNG $1.4M, California ethanol $2.6M). LCFS approvals and dairy RNG scale-up: CARB approved seven new LCFS pathways averaging a negative 380 CI score (vs. the -150 default), boosting credit value, while dairy RNG sales jumped 55% to 110,000 MMBTUs and Aemetis is on track to double its operating dairy digester network. Key projects and financing focus: The Keyes MVR project is expected to commission later this year to displace ~80% of fossil natural gas and add about $32 million in annual cash flow, while the company pursues refinancing and an India IPO amid financing being the main outstanding item for its larger RD/SAF expansion. Aemetis (NASDAQ:AMTX) reported first-quarter 2026 results that management described as a “financial inflection point,” driven by higher revenue across all three operating segments, a swing to positive gross profit, and initial quarterly production tax credit generation under Section 45Z. Chief Financial Officer Todd Waltz said first-quarter revenue rose 27% year over year to $54.6 million, compared with $42.9 million in the first quarter of 2025. Gross profit was $2.8 million, improving from a gross loss of $5.1 million a year ago. Operating loss improved about 60% to $6.3 million from $15.6 million, and net loss narrowed to $21.7 million from $24.5 million. → Berkshire Hathaway’s Record Cash Hoard: Why and What's Next? Waltz said production tax credits under Section 45Z contributed $4 million of operating income during the quarter, including $1.4 million from dairy renewable natural gas (RNG) and $2.6 million from California ethanol. He characterized the quarter as the company’s first period of “ongoing credit generation tied to quarterly production since 45Z eligibility was established in the fourth quarter of 2025.” Adjusted EBITDA was negative $1.3 million, which Waltz attributed to “typical winter seasonality,” with stronger revenue and margin performance later in the quarter. Cash and cash equivalents ended the quarter at $4.8 million, comparable to year-end 2025. Capital investments in carbon intensity reduction and dairy digester constructi...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-07

Aemetis: Q1 Earnings Snapshot

Associated Press

CUPERTINO, Calif. (AP) — CUPERTINO, Calif. (AP) — Aemetis Inc. (AMTX) on Thursday reported a loss of $21.7 million in its first quarter. The Cupertino, California-based company said it had a loss of 33 cents per share. The results fell short of Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of three analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 27 cents per share. The renewable fuels and specialty chemicals company posted revenue of $54.6 million in the period, which also fell short of Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $67.3 million. The company's shares closed at $3.24. A year ago, they were trading at $1.25. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on AMTX at https://www.zacks.com/ap/AMTX

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-07

Aemetis Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

GlobeNewswire

Revenue Growth of 27%, Positive Gross Profit, and Increased Dairy RNG Production Revenues of $54.6 million, an increase of 27% over Q1 2025, with growth across California Ethanol, Dairy RNG, and India Biodiesel segments Gross profit of $2.8 million, compared with a gross loss of $5.1 million in Q1 2025 Operating loss improved approximately 60% to $6.3 million, compared with $15.6 million in Q1 2025 Aemetis Biogas RNG sales volume grew 55% to 110,000 MMBtu, compared with 71,000 MMBtu in Q1 2025 India Biodiesel rebounded to $10.5 million in revenue with the resumption of OMC tender shipments under new contracts $4.0 million of Section 45Z Production Tax Credits recognized in Q1 2026 — representing the first quarter of ongoing credits generation tied to quarterly production since 45Z eligibility was established in Q4 2025 Revenues include LCFS credits earned from seven Dairy RNG pathways with an average CI score of negative 380, versus the negative 150 default pathway that applied for Q1 2025 revenues — with 6 additional biogas pathways nearing approval First delivery of four dairy biogas pretreatment skids in April under $27 million fabrication contract First delivery of major equipment to Keyes ethanol plant for $40 million Mechanical Vapor Recompression system First delivery of major equipment for on-site RNG station to directly fuel trucks and gas delivery trailers without using utility gas pipeline CUPERTINO, Calif., May 07, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX), a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company focused on lower-cost and lower-emission products, today announced its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. “Revenues during the first quarter of 2026 were $54.6 million, reflecting strong execution across our California Ethanol, Dairy RNG, and India Biodiesel segments, with each segment contributing to a 27% year-over-year revenue increase, ” said Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer of Aemetis. “We posted gross profit of $2.8 million in the quarter compared with a gross loss in the same quarter last year, reflecting both operational scale and the generation of Section 45Z Production Tax Credits. With seven fully approved LCFS provisional pathways averaging a negative 380 CI score, and six more biogas pathways nearing approval, we expect to significantly improve our Low Carbon Fuel Standard revenues during...

TranscriptFY2026 Q12026-05-07

FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript

Earnings source - 77 paragraphs
Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Aemetis Q1 2026 earnings conference call. Joining us today are Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer, and Andy Foster, President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels. I will now turn the call over to Todd Waltz.

Todd Waltz

Thank you, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the call, we'll make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For the Q1 of 2026, revenue grew 27% to $54.6 million, compared with $42.9 million in the Q1 of 2025, with growth across each of the three reportable operating segments. Gross profit was $2.8 million in the quarter, a year-over-year improvement of nearly $8 million from the gross loss of $5.1 million in the Q1 of 2025.

Todd Waltz

Operating loss improved approximately 60% to $6.3 million, compared with $15.6 million in the prior period. Net loss improved to $21.7 million compared to $24.5 million in the Q1 of 2025. Production tax credits under Section 45Z contributed $4 million of operating income during the quarter, $1.4 million in dairy RNG and $2.6 million in California ethanol, representing our Q1 of ongoing credit generation tied to quarterly production since 45Z eligibility was established in the Q4 of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was negative $1.3 million, reflecting typical winter seasonality, with stronger revenue and margin performance later in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA and reconciliation of EBITDA to net loss is described in our earnings release issued earlier today.

Todd Waltz

Cash and cash equivalent at the end of the quarter were $4.8 million comparable to year-end 2025. Capital investments in carbon intensity reduction and dairy digester construction totaled $6.5 million during the quarter. With that overview, I'll turn the call over to Eric.

Eric McAfee

Thank you, Todd. I want to highlight three key takeaways from the Q1 of 2026. First, Q1 was a financial inflection point. We grew consolidated revenue 27% year-over-year, posted positive gross profit, and improved operating loss by more than $9 million. All three of our reportable operating segments contributed to this result. Second, we benefited from the California Air Resources Board approval of seven new Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways for our renewable natural gas business at an average carbon intensity score of -380 compared with the -150 default, which has been providing additional revenue at the higher LCFS value each quarter since Q3 2025. Six additional biogas digester pathways are nearing approval.

Eric McAfee

These LCFS pathways approvals substantially expand the LCFS credit generation per MMBtu of RNG produced and will continue to drive meaningful revenue increases as we scale production. Third, our capital projects are advancing. We received the initial deliveries of dairy biogas pretreatment skids in April under our $27 million fabrication contract. Major equipment for the $40 million mechanical vapor recompression project at our Keyes California ethanol plant has arrived on-site, and construction has begun. In dairy RNG, we sold 110,000 MMBtus in Q1, a 55% increase over the same quarter last year. With H2S cleanup and biogas compression equipment contracted for 15 additional digesters and four of the equipment units already delivered by the vendor, we are on track to double our operating dairy network with construction into 2027.

Eric McAfee

At our ethanol plant, the MVR project is on track for completion later this year. The system will use on-site solar and grid electricity to displace approximately 80% of the fossil natural gas consumption at the plant. We expect MVR commissioning later this year to add approximately $32 million in annual cash flow from operations, including additional 45Z and LCFS uplift from the expected reduction in the carbon intensity of the ethanol produced by the plant and cost savings on natural gas. In India, biodiesel revenue rebounded to $10.5 million in Q1 with the resumption of oil marketing company shipments under new contracts. This revenue growth supports our planned initial public offering of the India subsidiary, Universal Biofuels Private Limited, for which we have retained legal, accounting, and IPO advisors.

Eric McAfee

Looking ahead, our focus for 2026 is scaling production, monetizing the stacked credit value of our renewable fuels platform, completing the India IPO, and the refinancing of existing debt into long-term financing. The principal catalyst we are tracking through the year include the publication of the updated 45ZCF-GREET model by the Department of Energy to significantly increase revenues and margins, commissioning the MVR at the Keyes Ethanol plant, rising LCFS credit prices caused by continued quarterly credit deficits, and ,progress on the India IPO. Thank you to our shareholders, analysts, and partners for your continued support. Operator, let's take some questions.

Operator

Certainly. The floor is now open for questions. If you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone at this time. We ask that while posing your question, you please pick up your handset if listening on a speakerphone to provide optimum sound quality. Please hold for just a few moments while we poll for any questions. Your first question is coming from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

Matthew Blair

Thanks, good morning, Eric. Certainly a lot of things going on at your company, but I was hoping you could talk about the possibility of the RD and SAF plant that has been on the table for a few years now, just in light of the very robust 2026 and 2027 RVO that materially increased the biomass-based diesel requirements. How are you thinking about that RD and SAF project? Maybe you could refresh us on, you know, how much it would cost and what kind of capacity it would provide. Thank you.

Eric McAfee

Thank you, Matt. The capacity is 80 million gallons a year of SAF, or if we run it only in renewable diesel mode, it's 90 million gallons, and as you know from previous reports, we have 10 different airlines we signed definitive agreements with, et cetera. We got full permitting approval for construction to begin in 2024. However, market conditions in renewable diesel and SAF were hampered by a new president being hired. That of course happened in late 2024. That caused the financing markets to take a delay in looking at SAF and RD. You have done a very good job covering margins at renewable diesel producers. Just yesterday in California, Phillips 66 announced that they're running above their nameplate capacity on their renewable diesel plant.

Eric McAfee

Certainly, the events since March 1 have driven the price of the molecule up substantially. L.A. quotes SAF in neat form at $9.80 a gallon as of yesterday. The market conditions have moved in our favor significantly compared to where we were in late 2024 with a new president being hired who had had certainly had a policy position that needs some clarification. We are definitely in a position right now in which there is are frankly a lot of interest in new SAF production.

Eric McAfee

I would say that the uncertainty in the last few months has given new certainty to the need for domestic production of renewable fuel and a clarity that airplanes are not gonna fly on hydrogen, batteries, nuclear power or any other sort of energy source other than liquid fuels for the foreseeable number of decades. We position this project specifically for the conditions we're in right now, high price of crude oil alternatives, and frankly, coalescing enthusiasm for the renewable version, which is sustainable aviation fuel. We are definitely making progress on the financing. That is actually the only remaining part of this. We have the authority to construct permit in place for the facility, and market conditions continue to be in favor of that.

Eric McAfee

That 80 million gallons, of course, if we're selling at $9.80 a gallon, is almost $800 million additional revenue, and I think the industry today is reporting roughly $1.60 a gallon of operating margin, so obviously, a very positive improvement in our company's overall revenue and EBITDA growth. I'm gonna wrap this up by saying that there are actually four different sources of revenue for that plant, and 45Z, the clean fuels provision, is still an un-unknown. We don't have the updated 45Z. It is absolutely expected anytime soon, certainly before June, that the Republicans need to post it.

Eric McAfee

Since there are four revenue streams, you sell the molecule, you sell the California credits, the federal credits, and then receive the 45Z production tax credit. That is having an impact on the timing of our financing in that most lenders especially are interested in knowing what the 45Z revenue is for this project. Federal laws passed, Treasury adopted their guidance in February 2026 for 45Z, but the actual calculator on the Department of Energy website is going to be necessary. That spreadsheet needs to be posted with the updated rules in the spreadsheet in order to finalize that fourth leg of the stool. Wanna put that note on the table that that's having an impact. Of course, right now the business works great without 45Z. People are curious to know what your total revenue is if we're doing a project of that size.

Matthew Blair

Sounds good. The India biodiesel operations, nice to see them restarted in the Q1. It looks like profitability is essentially breakeven, maybe a little bit below. Could you talk about your expectations for the Q2? Do you think volumes will be in a similar range as the Q1 and I think we typically see some margin improvement in the Q2 as you're able to shift to different feedstocks. Do you think that'll happen in the Q2 this time around? Thank you.

Eric McAfee

Thanks, Matt. Let's talk about the overall trend in India, because it's very important for investors to understand that India is a country that's a socialist country, and they have elections that occurred in the first week of May, and in order to support the existing government, a decision was taken by the government to set the price of diesel at the same price in March and in April as it was in January and February does nhere's no change in the price of diesel. I think most people on this call would understand that the price of diesel and crude oil dramatically increased in both March and April, but in India, it did not. As of today, when you go to the pump in India, you don't know that the Iranian war happened from the price of the diesel at the pump.

Eric McAfee

That means that the government is running a very large negative from their expected tax collections from diesel, and the Oil Marketing Companies are losing a very large amount of money every single day on selling diesel because they're buying crude oil at high prices and then selling it at prices below cost in India. That is about to change, and it should happen in the next few days that the price of diesel in India dramatically increases. The Oil Marketing Companies and the Ministry of Petroleum have known about this for two months and have been proactively meeting with the biodiesel and renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel producers or to-be producers in the country in order to come up with a much more solid program for us to be able to utilize all of our production capacity.

Eric McAfee

We have an 80 million gallon plant that's been operating at, you know, recently at 10% capacity, so there's been a renewed focus on domestic renewable fuels in India with the policies are already in place. National Policy on Biofuels is at 5% blend of biodiesel in a 25 billion gallon market. That's about 1.25 billion gallons. They're unfortunately not at 5%. They're at 0.5% blend right now, and that is rapidly changing. You asked about Q2. I would put in the context of during the trend of this year, we're seeing dramatic increases. Frankly, signing larger contracts and, frankly, having going back to the cost-plus contract model is what is in process right now in India.

Eric McAfee

During the course of the next few months, I think you'll see that kind of certainty come into play. Our IPO is really being built around us working on that reality, that those policies need to be known and need to be adopted, and so we're setting up our IPO to be directly correlated with when those policies are adopted. I think it'll have a very positive impact on not only the valuation of our business, but how much money we raise, and we're seeking it for the IPO in India to be truly a breakout opportunity.

Eric McAfee

We're looking to build the first global, diversified renewable fuels business ever to go public in India and certainly, anticipate that that will be the positioning we have, and that the events of the last two months are having a very significant impact on India and focusing them on redirect themselves to these policies that they've already got on the books, but they haven't been fully enforcing.

Matthew Blair

Sounds good. Thanks for your comments.

Eric McAfee

Sure. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Nat Pendleton with Texas Capital. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

Nat Pendleton

Morning. Can you provide more color around the financing commentary from the release? Just looking to better understand some of the options that are available to you on addressing the debt broadly. Then more specifically, what are you looking at with regard to Keyes and then the status of the REAP funding for the dairy RNG projects?

Eric McAfee

The improved margins and, frankly, now recovery of confidence in the need for domestic renewable fuels is directly expanding our refinancing opportunities. We have been funded and supported for the last 18 years by roughly a $3 billion fund out of Toronto that holds our senior debt, except for the $50 million of USDA debt that we have. Our expectation is that we will continue to have very positive trends toward having municipal bond financings available to us. Municipal bonds have been used by the renewable fuels industry for a variety of basically greenfield projects. We, of course, are not greenfield, we're expansion, we are actively in the market right now actually working on a municipal bond type refinancing of our existing bridge financing we got from Third Eye Capital.

Eric McAfee

The Rural Energy for America Program at USDA is active, but they have slowed down their expansion in renewable fuels in a portfolio review process. The timing of that, it seems to be changing on a regular basis. As they make review their portfolio goals, they'll be expanding or not expanding. It's really quite uncertain to be quite frankly, frank with you. The rapid expansion of interest in the municipal bond and even commercial credit markets, certainly private credit markets, all of which we've had active discussions with, I think are going to overshadow our Rural Energy for America Program funding. I think we'll be seeing much larger financings and moving much quicker than what the USDA REAP program currently looks like for our company.

Nat Pendleton

Understood. Thanks, Eric. Then I just wanted to get your perspective on LCFS prices for a moment. While the market has flipped to deficit generation recently, prices have broadly remained quite muted. Can you talk about your expectations for that market going forward?

Eric McAfee

I think we're going to see a rapid price increase during the summer and early fall. What muted the deficit that's we had our Q2 deficit announced on April 30th, and that was for the Q4 of last year. There's a trailing deficit announcement. It was literally 44 months after the end of the physical quarter is when the announcement happens. The price of being muted was an expectation by traders that people wouldn't drive as much with high gasoline prices. Interestingly enough, on a formulaic basis, gasoline currently represents roughly 2% of the income of the average American. I think traders overtraded on this one. They were not anticipating, but that the Iranian war would actually not be as big of an impact on driving as what it has.

Eric McAfee

They thought it'd have a bigger impact than what it really did. Did not have as big an impact, especially in California. LCFS credit deficits, however, are not driven just by consumption of gasoline. It's also driven by how many credits come from renewable diesel. Renewable diesel is the reason we got such a large 40 million credit bank, and renewable diesel has underperformed in Q4 last year and the first part of Q1 of this year, I expect it to underperform in credit generation. If you have fewer credits being generated, quite frankly, it was a lot more of a deficit than what was expected because there was fewer our renewable diesel credits generated. We think the LCFS price trend is absolutely upwards.

Eric McAfee

The question of pace has been impacted by the Iranian war. That play didn't quite work out, and so we do expect increases to continue. There are plenty of credits in the market. It's not that issue. The issue is, do you want to pay $200 for it 18 months from now when there's very few in the credit bank? It's a question of major oil company traders over the next 18 months, at some point in time, reaching a tipping point, which they decide they do not wanna have to be buying $200 credits. They might as well get out there and buy whatever they can on the market.

Eric McAfee

When that happens, you'll see a very rapid price rise. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see $150 in 2027 as traders see the cap as $268. They wanna get their book filled up as soon as possible.

Nat Pendleton

Got it. Thanks for the color, Eric.

Eric McAfee

Sure. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Sameer Joshi at H.C. Wainwright. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

Sameer Joshi

Hey, good morning. Good afternoon, Eric. Thanks for taking my question.

Eric McAfee

Hey, Sameer.

Sameer Joshi

Hey. On the MVR, I understand it's going to be deployed before the end of the year. Are there any additional certifications, verifications needed to be done before you can start generating that $32 million annualized return from it? I know some of it will be immediate because of lower natural gas consumption, but for the other incentive-based cash flows, do you need to do anything?

Eric McAfee

Andy, you wanna take it?

Andy Foster

Thank you for your question. There are no additional certifications necessary. We received an authority to construct from the air district, which is really the big number that we have to get crossed off before we can proceed with the project, and that was received last year, so we have some local permits that, you know, are sort of ongoing as you do construction, but we don't have any requirements for additional permitting or authorization in order to proceed. Construction has begun. We've begun demolition on existing concrete structures. As Eric mentioned in his comments, we've received Most of the major equipment is stateside now. We received the turbofans from Germany last week. The main evaporator was received by from Praj in India about a week ago.

Andy Foster

It's actually currently in transit to the Keyes plant. All of the big-ticket items that take a long time to fabricate are either on site or will be on site within the next week or so.

Sameer Joshi

Got it. Thanks for that, Andy.

Sameer Joshi

Moving to the India OMC activity there, thanks for the color that you provided, Eric, to the previous question, but in terms of pricing that will be available for you, do you expect it to be a premium pricing relative to what you got in the last year, for example, or are getting currently?

Eric McAfee

Yes. There's definitely premium pricing actually. The next contract is already being discussed, but the structure of a cost-plus contract, which we did $112 million of revenue and about $14 million of positive cash flow last time we had a cost-plus contract. That structure is being strongly considered as a replacement for what they've done in the last couple years, which was this uncertain sort of pick a number and see what happens kind of a structure. We've covered this, I guess a couple years ago with investors, but just a reminder, the cost-plus structure was after many, many years of working with the government to come up with something that was going to expand capacity utilization in India.

Eric McAfee

It worked very, very well. Then the India government passed a 20% tax, a 20% tariff on the feedstock that was being used by the industry, and therefore the price of the formula went up 20% after they'd issued us a contract. The oil marketing companies did not want to take a loss, so they just didn't take delivery. That created confusion in the market. That confusion's now gotten more clarified because of the very high cost of diesel and the need for them to start getting utilization in the biodiesel industry, that's the resolution that's being worked out right now, so we do expect a return to better conditions for full capacity utilization. India imports over 90% of its crude oil and really needs to expand its domestic production of renewable fuels.

Sameer Joshi

Understood. Thanks for that. Then just one last one. You did mention, you got seven annual LCFS pathways approved for the -380. Six are being worked on. Should we expect those to occur before in the H1 or is it a H2 event?

Eric McAfee

There's a strange delay in the process. We expect the approvals to occur, but then they are a look back a couple quarters. If we get an approval, for example, at the end of the fourth quarter, it's a look back to the beginning of the Q3, so an approval by the end of December is actually effective in July 1. Strange situation, but the reality is, yes, we do expect by the end of the year to be appropriate progress here with a look back that looks like a six-month look back because they do it the quarter after the closing of a quarter, so we will keep the market apprised of progress here, and of course, we're focusing on moving it through the process as quickly as possible.

Sameer Joshi

Understood. That would potentially sort of be a lump sum that you get if it is approved in the Q4 for the previous two quarters, and then it will be on an ongoing basis.

Eric McAfee

It's a look back process which basically just starts July 1 if you're approved December 30th, and then yes, there might be a one quarter catch up, but in essence, it's just a delayed approval for the previous quarter. It's the way the government looks at it.

Sameer Joshi

Understood. Thanks a lot. Thanks for taking my questions.

Eric McAfee

Thank you, Sameer.

Operator

Your next question is from Dave Storms with Stonegate. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

Dave Storms

Morning, thank you for taking my questions.

Eric McAfee

Hey, David.

Dave Storms

With the dairy. Morning. Wanted to stick with the dairy digesters. I believe you mentioned on the call you're expecting another 15, you know, doubling your digesters by 2027. Can you just remind us, when you actually get the investment tax credits related to those investments, and mYou know, maybe just your thoughts around the monetization of those tax credits.

Eric McAfee

Good question. We get the tax credits upon the completion, what they call in-service date for each single digester, so we don't have to build all 15 of them and then add 6 months to that or anything. As we build each digester and it goes in service, we generate Section 48, I'm sorry, investment tax credits. We have sold about $95 million of these tax credits. We tend to sell them in $5 million or higher increments, so that is not absolutely required, and we do expect to have a single party this year acquire each one of the investment tax credit projects that we generate, so we will be seeking to do at least once a quarter.

Eric McAfee

There is a potential of doing it more than once a quarter, depending on how many new units are completed. We expect this to be probably a Q3 contribution, but could be quicker than that. I say could be, as in, the market's moving quickly. We have some refinancing activities going on that certainly are very positive for the business. We've already fully financed the construction of $27 million of these hydrosulfide and compression skids. The process is going on. We've received four them already, have more coming. We're rapidly executing on portions of this project right now, and the investment tax credit delay is a month or so after the in-service date if we were doing it in the ordinary flow of business. Not a whole lot of delay between when the project's completed and when we get the cash.

Dave Storms

Understood. That's very helpful. Just sticking with those potential new digesters, do those come online at the -380 qualification status? I guess, how does that process look? If they don't come on at the -380, you know, what do you think the current timeline is from the negative 150 to the negative 380?

Eric McAfee

Andy, you wanna speak to that?

Andy Foster

Are you speaking about the?

Eric McAfee

The new digesters that are not built yet.

Andy Foster

That are not built? No.

Dave Storms

Oh, correct.

Andy Foster

They're given the temporary pathway score of -150, and then once we go through the process with CARB, which hopefully, now that they've moved to a tier one approval process, will be significantly shorter than what we've experienced in the last few years, which is this kind of 24-month to 36-month approval process. It should be more like nine months, and then we would get the benefit of that higher or lower, however you wanna look at it, CI score, so initially, it's a negative 150, and as you work your way through the approval process, and then you go to the blended rate of, you know, the negative 380.

Dave Storms

That's perfect. Thank you for taking my questions.

Eric McAfee

Thank you, David.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ed Woo with Ascendiant Capital. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

Ed Woo

Yeah, congratulations on all the progress, guys. My question is, you know, as we are getting closer to the India IPO, what are your priorities or what have you allocated in terms of what you're gonna do with the capital raised?

Eric McAfee

The India IPO is primarily designed to support the expansion of the existing projects in India and in California. Our existing projects in California, specifically focused on dairy RNG would be a use of some of the proceeds of our India business. That's one of the reasons why it will be the first global diversified company, so not just biodiesel, but multiple different fuels company to go public in India. That offers the India investor access to a very well-established incentive environment here in California called the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The fuel standard in California is matched by the Renewable Fuel Standard federal level, the 45Z production tax credit and the value of the molecule.

Eric McAfee

The Indian investor has access to arguably one of the best markets in the world for renewable fuels, that's a diversification of the growth in the India business. Another point we've made publicly is that as the largest biodiesel producer in India, we happen to be very well-positioned to build the conversion of a biodiesel facility into sustainable aviation fuel, and so our India IPO, not only is biodiesel and dairy renewable natural gas, but also a conversion into a SAF producer in India in addition to expanding biodiesel. It's a diversified business. The India market is very deep and wide, and right now is about to have the shock of its diesel life with the increase of just an incredible % increase in diesel costs as a result of what's been going on in the world.

Eric McAfee

It's a perfect storm for us, in favor of us as a producer in India who's been there for 18 years to open our opportunity to the public markets. We're making excellent progress, and certainly market conditions will determine the actual timing of what we do, but market conditions are certainly trending in our direction.

Ed Woo

Great. Well, thanks for answering my questions, and I wish you guys good luck. Thank you.

Eric McAfee

Thank you, Ed.

Operator

There are no further questions in queue at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Eric McAfee for closing remarks.

Eric McAfee

Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, analysts, and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis. Todd?

Todd Waltz

Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. A written and audio version of this earnings review will be posted to the investor section of the Aemetis website.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-01

Aemetis to Review First Quarter 2026 Financial Results on May 7, 2026

GlobeNewswire

CUPERTINO, Calif., May 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) announced that the company will host a conference call to review the release of its first quarter 2026 earnings report: Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026 Time: 11 am Pacific Time (PT) Live Participant Dial In (Toll Free): +1-888-506-0062 entry code 943189 Live Participant Dial In (International): +1-973-528-0011 entry code 943189 Webcast URL: https://www.webcaster5.com/Webcast/Page/2211/53904 Attendees may submit questions during the Q&A (Questions & Answers) portion of the conference call. The webcast will be available on the Company’s website (www.aemetis.com) under Investors/Conference Calls, along with the company presentation, recent announcements, and video recordings. The voice recording will be available through May 21, 2026 by dialing (Toll Free) 877-481-4010 or (International) 919-882-2331 and entering conference ID number 53904. After May 21st, the webcast will be available on the Company’s website (www.aemetis.com) under Investors/Conference Calls. About Aemetis Headquartered in Cupertino, California, Aemetis is a diversified renewable natural gas and biofuels company focused on the development and operation of innovative technologies that lower energy costs and reduce emissions. Founded in 2006, Aemetis is operating and expanding a California biogas digester network and pipeline system to convert dairy waste gas into Renewable Natural Gas. Aemetis owns and operates a 65 million gallon per year ethanol production facility in California’s Central Valley near Modesto that supplies about 80 dairies with animal feed. Aemetis owns and operates an 80 million gallon per year production facility on the East Coast of India producing high quality biodiesel and refined glycerin. To utilize the byproducts from ethanol production, Aemetis is developing a sustainable aviation fuel plant and a CO2 sequestration project in California. For additional information about Aemetis, please visit www.aemetis.com. Investor Relations/Media Contact: Todd Waltz (408) 213-0940 [email protected] External Investor Relations Contact: Kirin Smith PCG Advisory Group (646) 863-6519 [email protected]

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-13

Aemetis (AMTX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Motley Fool

Image source: The Motley Fool. Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 2 p.m. ET Chief Financial Officer — Todd Waltz Chairman and Chief Executive Officer — Eric McAfee Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email [email protected] Todd Waltz: Thank you, Ollie, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $53.7 million compared to $47 million in 2024. Quarterly gross profit improved to $7.7 million compared to a gross loss of $2 million in the prior year period. Operating loss improved to $2.5 million compared to $13.5 million in 2024. The net loss improved to $5.3 million compared to $16.2 million last year. For the full year 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $208 million compared to $268 million in 2024. Operating loss improved to $37.2 million and net loss improved to $77 million compared to $87.5 million in the prior year. During the fourth quarter, ethanol and RNG operations generated $10.3 million of production tax credits, reflecting the growing contribution of federal clean fuel incentives to the company's financial profile. With that overview, I would like to turn the call over to Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis, Inc. Eric McAfee: Thank you, Todd. Before discussing the business segments, I want to highlight three key takeaways from the fourth quarter and last year. First, our dairy renewable natural gas platform reached an important during 2025, achieving positive segment net income and EBITDA while production increased 61% year over year in the fourth quarter. We generated net income of $12.2 million in our biogas segment in 2025. We expect strong annual growth in cash flow and profitability from the biogas segment for the next four years as 45Z is implemented and we continue to expand production. Second, during 2025, we continue to advance mechanical vapor upgrade at our Keyes ethanol plant, which is expected to increase plant cash flow by approximately $32 million per year when completed in 2026. And third, revenue from da...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-13

Aemetis Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat

Sharp Q4 improvement: Revenue plus tax credits rose to $53.7 million (from $47.0 million) and gross profit improved to $7.7 million from a year-earlier $2.0 million loss, while operating and net losses narrowed to $2.5 million and $5.3 million respectively, aided by $10.3 million of production tax credits. Biogas segment milestone: The dairy RNG business achieved positive segment net income and EBITDA, generating $12.2 million of net income in Q4 with a 61% year‑over‑year production increase and plans to expand with 15 additional digesters to drive multi‑year cash‑flow growth. Keyes MVR upgrade to boost cash flow ~$32M/year: Aemetis is installing a mechanical vapor recompression system at its Keyes ethanol plant—expected to cut natural gas use ~80%, lower carbon intensity, cost about $40 million (over half already spent) and be completed in 2026 (targeted Q3, full impact Q4). Interested in Aemetis, Inc? Here are five stocks we like better. Aemetis (NASDAQ:AMTX) executives highlighted improved fourth-quarter profitability, a milestone year for its dairy renewable natural gas (RNG) platform, and major expected cash flow uplift from an efficiency upgrade at its California ethanol plant during the company’s fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. Chief Financial Officer Todd Waltz said fourth-quarter 2025 revenue plus tax credits rose to $53.7 million from $47.0 million in the prior-year quarter. Gross profit improved to $7.7 million versus a gross loss of $2.0 million a year earlier. → FuelCell Energy Is Burning Cash Faster Than It’s Building Momentum Operating loss narrowed to $2.5 million from $13.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, while net loss improved to $5.3 million compared to $16.2 million in the year-ago period. Waltz also pointed to the growing role of federal clean fuel incentives, noting that ethanol and RNG operations generated $10.3 million of production tax credits during the fourth quarter. → Alphabet’s Pullback May Be Opening a New Entry Point For the full year 2025, Waltz reported revenue plus tax credits of $208.0 million, down from $268.0 million in 2024. Despite the decline, he said profitability metrics improved year over year: operating loss narrowed to $37.2 million, and net loss improved to $77.0 million from $87.5 million in 2024. Chairman and CEO Eric McAfee said the company’s dairy RNG platform reached “an important m...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-13

Aemetis, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

Moby

The dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) platform achieved a strategic milestone in 2025, reaching positive segment net income and EBITDA driven by a 61% year-over-year production increase in Q4. Management attributes the improving financial profile to the growing contribution of federal clean fuel incentives, specifically the 45Z production tax credits and D3 RINs. The California ethanol business is undergoing a structural shift toward higher margins through the installation of a Mechanical Vapor Recompression (MVR) system designed to reduce natural gas consumption by 80%. Revenue growth was supported by a 60% increase in Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit prices over nine months following the program's 20-year extension. The India biodiesel segment serves as a strategic hedge and growth vehicle, positioned to capitalize on government blending mandates and a shift away from imported crude oil. Strategic positioning focuses on 'monetizing the molecule' by leveraging a unique direct-connection infrastructure between dairy digesters and the ethanol plant to maximize environmental credit values. Management expects significant annual growth in cash flow and profitability over the next four years as the 45Z tax credit is fully implemented and production scales. The MVR system at the Keyes plant is targeted for completion in 2026, with an expected annual cash flow contribution of approximately $32 million once fully operational. RNG production is projected to double as the company executes a contract for equipment fabrication to bring 15 additional dairy digesters online. The company is pursuing an Initial Public Offering (IPO) of its India subsidiary in 2026 to fund expansion into compressed biogas and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Financial strategy for 2026 prioritizes the long-term refinancing of existing debt and scaling production to capture rising LCFS credit values, which management anticipates could reach $150 or more next year. The company is currently awaiting the finalized GREET model from the Department of Energy to precisely calculate 45Z revenue, introducing a period of regulatory dependency. Geopolitical shifts, including the cessation of discounted Russian and Iranian oil imports to India, are cited as a macro catalyst for increased domestic biofuel demand. The transition from 45Z tax credit monetization to cash flow is dependent on the issuan...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-12

Aemetis: Q4 Earnings Snapshot

Associated Press Finance

CUPERTINO, Calif. (AP) — CUPERTINO, Calif. (AP) — Aemetis Inc. (AMTX) on Thursday reported a loss of $5.3 million in its fourth quarter. The Cupertino, California-based company said it had a loss of 8 cents per share. Losses, adjusted for pretax gains, came to 24 cents per share. The renewable fuels and specialty chemicals company posted revenue of $43.3 million in the period. For the year, the company reported that its loss narrowed to $77 million, or $1.28 per share. Revenue was reported as $197.6 million. The company's shares closed at $1.54. A year ago, they were trading at $1.68. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on AMTX at https://www.zacks.com/ap/AMTX

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-12

Aemetis Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results as Dairy RNG Platform Scales

GlobeNewswire

Dairy RNG production increased 61% year over year in Q4 2025; ethanol plant efficiency upgrade expected to increase plant cash flow from operations by approximately $32 million annually Aemetis Biogas segment net income increased to $12.2 million in Q4 2025 Aemetis Biogas segment increased annual revenues and production tax credits by 53% Dairy RNG production increased 61% year over year in Q4 2025 Aemetis Biogas achieved annual segment net income of $6.9 million Capital investments increased 28% over the prior year to $26.0 million, supporting dairy RNG expansion and ethanol plant energy efficiency upgrades Dairy digester projects generated cash proceeds of $18 million during 2025 from the sale of investment tax credits Ethanol and Biogas operations generated additional income of $10.4 million from production tax credits during the fourth quarter of 2025 MVR ethanol plant efficiency upgrade expected to increase cash flow from operations by approximately $32 million annually after completion in 2026 CUPERTINO, Calif., March 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX), a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company focused on low and negative carbon intensity products, today announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ending December 31, 2025. “Revenues for the full year of 2025 were $197.6 million plus production tax credit income of $10.4 million for total income of $208.0 million,” said Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer of Aemetis. “Capital expenditures for carbon intensity reduction and the expansion of biogas production capacity were $26 million for 2025 as our engineering and construction teams moved forward with low carbon initiatives and the dairy RNG project buildout,” added Waltz. "In addition to achieving important operational milestones during 2025 in all of the business segments, the dairy RNG segment generated net income of $12.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2025 while we continued building the infrastructure that supports long-term growth across our renewable energy platform,” said Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis. “With RNG production scaling, ethanol plant efficiency improvements underway, and federal clean fuel incentives beginning to be monetized, we believe Aemetis is positioned for meaningful growth in revenue and cash flow as we move through 2026. We are pleased to see policy support...

TranscriptFY2025 Q42026-03-12

FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript

Earnings source - 34 paragraphs
Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Aemetis, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Review Conference Call. Joining us today are Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Aemetis, Inc., and Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Waltz. Sir, the floor is yours.

Todd Waltz

Thank you, Ollie, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $53.7 million compared to $47 million in 2024. Quarterly gross profit improved to $7.7 million compared to a gross loss of $2 million in the prior year period. Operating loss improved to $2.5 million compared to $13.5 million in 2024. The net loss improved to $5.3 million compared to $16.2 million last year. For the full year 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $208 million compared to $268 million in 2024. Operating loss improved to $37.2 million and net loss improved to $77 million compared to $87.5 million in the prior year. During the fourth quarter, ethanol and RNG operations generated $10.3 million of production tax credits, reflecting the growing contribution of federal clean fuel incentives to the company's financial profile. With that overview, I would like to turn the call over to Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis, Inc.

Eric McAfee

Thank you, Todd. Before discussing the business segments, I want to highlight three key takeaways from the fourth quarter and last year. First, our dairy renewable natural gas platform reached an important during 2025, achieving positive segment net income and EBITDA while production increased 61% year over year in the fourth quarter. We generated net income of $12.2 million in our biogas segment in 2025. We expect strong annual growth in cash flow and profitability from the biogas segment for the next four years as 45Z is implemented and we continue to expand production. Second, during 2025, we continue to advance mechanical vapor upgrade at our Keyes ethanol plant, which is expected to increase plant cash flow by approximately $32 million per year when completed in 2026. And third, revenue from dairy RNG and ethanol production is generated by renewable fuel sales as well as environmental credit monetization, including LCFS credits, federal D3 RINs, and 45Z production tax credits. The 60% increase in the price of Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits in the past nine months since the LCFS was extended by 20 years, and the recent Treasury guidance for the 45Z production tax credit are important contributors to our growth in revenue and cash flow. Our dairy RNG platform continues to grow production as becoming a significant driver of revenue and cash flow growth at Aemetis, Inc. During 2025, the dairy RNG business produced approximately 405,000 MMBtus of renewable natural gas and expanded to 12 operating digesters. Looking ahead, we expect RNG production to grow during 2026 as additional dairy digesters come online, with equipment fabrication contracted for the H2S cleanup and biogas compression units for 15 digesters, which will double the number of operating dairies in our network. Turning to our California ethanol business, the Keyes ethanol plant generated $158 million of revenue during 2025 and has approximately 65 million gallons of annual production capacity. We began receiving equipment on-site for the installation of the mechanical vapor compression system at the ethanol plant for completion later this year. The MVR system is expected to reduce natural gas consumption by 80%, lower the carbon intensity of ethanol produced by the plant, and increase annual plant cash flow by approximately $32 million. In India, our biodiesel facility generated $29.7 million of revenue during 2025, and has significant available capacity to supply expanding government goals for biodiesel blending. Our plant has approximately 80 million gallons of biodiesel production capacity along with about 8 million gallons of glycerin refining capacity. India continues to represent an attractive growth opportunity as a country focuses on the production of domestic renewable fuels to displace imported crude oil and to supply fuel to a fast-growing economy. We are expanding the India business into biogas production and sustainable aviation fuel as part of our work on an initial public offering of the India subsidiary this year. Looking ahead to 2026, our focus is on scaling production and monetizing the environmental credit values associated with our renewable fuels platform, as well as completing the India IPO and long-term refinancing of existing debt. Key policy developments include the finalization of the 45Z emissions rate calculation by the Department of Energy, further strengthening of LCFS markets, expanded ethanol markets via E15 blending approval in California, and biodiesel blending mandates in India are expected to support long-term growth in low carbon fuels. Thanks to our shareholders, analysts, and partners for your continued support. Operator, why do we not take some questions now?

Operator

Yes, indeed. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. It may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital. Your line is live.

Derrick Whitfield

Yes. Good morning, Aemetis, Inc. team. Great job with the year-end close. Wanted to start with your U.S. business. Maybe, Eric, just at a high level, could you give us your expectations for capital investment for 2026 between your RNG and your ethanol business?

Eric McAfee

We will be wrapping up our MVR system. Total investment there is going to be roughly in the $40 million range. We will also continue to expand. We have 15 contracted H2S units for the next 15 digesters we are building. That is about a $27 million contract that we have with NPL. And then, separately, the build-out of those 15, which will overlap into 2027, is roughly going to be another $70 million on top of that. So we continue to grow the assets, but our refinancing existing debt includes financing for the assets I just mentioned. And so we are fully financed for the completion of the MVR system. We are fully financed for the $27 million of H2S units. And as we roll out additional digesters, we expect to continue doing the type of 20-year financing which we have completed. As you know, we completed two financings at 20 years each for our first Aemetis Biogas 1 and Aemetis Biogas 2 entity. We are working on Aemetis 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 right now.

Derrick Whitfield

That is terrific, Eric. Then maybe shifting over to ethanol. Margins are quite positive, even before accounting for the MVR investment. How are you thinking about EBITDA generation for that asset in 2026?

Eric McAfee

Ethanol for us is a story of two worlds: pre-MVR and post-MVR. So this quarter, next quarter, we are going to be benefiting from removal of indirect land use change penalty for our corn on top of our existing carbon intensity. So we are currently at roughly $12 million a year, as you know, they are all granted to the nearest five. So we are currently roughly at that $12 million a year run-rate. That is not including any CO2 reuse. We are waiting for the GREET model and potentially a provisional emissions rate that could be used, the CO2 reuse, to lower our carbon intensity, but not including CO2 reuse, we are roughly $12 million a year. Post-MVR, we get rid of 80% of our natural gas cost, but also 80% of the penalty that we have for natural gas use. So post-MVR, 45Z and LCFS values go up and generate roughly another almost $3 million a month of cash flow. So we should be running about $4 million a month on just the 45Z plus MVR starting in what we are currently targeting as the third quarter for the MVR, but certainly going into the fourth quarter, that is what we expect to be. And then, on top of that is the LCFS credit price increase. It has already gone from $40 to $70. We would not be surprised at all to see it hit $100 this year and $150 or more next year, as we continue to see quarterly deficits. We do not see any scenario in which you do not see quarterly deficits in the LCFS program. So that would be incremental to the numbers I just gave you.

Derrick Whitfield

Great. Over to you, Eric. I appreciate it.

Operator

Thanks, Eric. Our next question is coming from Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright. Your line is live.

Amit Dayal

Thank you. Hi, Eric. Congrats on the execution in 2025. Looks like you guys are set up very well for 2026 as well. This $40 million investment in the MVR, how much of it has already been made or is the $40 million going to take place in 2026, Eric?

Eric McAfee

Much of it is already made. We are well past half of that right now. And the remaining balance happens over the next four months or so. But it is fully financed and has no equity dilution through the completion of it. We do not have any funding through the ATM or otherwise for it at this time.

Amit Dayal

So conservatively, should we assume contribution post-MVR to only come through in 2027?

Eric McAfee

Contribution should hit us in third quarter, be in full place in the fourth quarter. So it will affect roughly half of this year. Roughly.

Amit Dayal

Okay. And does the product coming out of this post-MVR need to be qualified, etcetera? Like the RNG had to go through an auditing process. Or will you be able to monetize right away those benefits?

Eric McAfee

It is the MVR; we are monetizing it “right away.” There is not a long year or two-year delay. One of the points you are making is relevant, which is not including the opportunity to run renewable natural gas into our plant under the rules. The renewable natural gas has to be directly connected from the production source to the ethanol plant. There are only a few plants in the U.S. that are structured that way. We happen to be the owner of one of those plants. So we have 50 dairies signed that can supply our ethanol plant with the renewable natural gas. That would be additional monetization that, in our structure, we really accrue to our dairy biogas business, not to our ethanol business. But, yes, we are definitely uniquely situated to have incremental economics for 45Z as well as LCFS by running our dairy RNG into the ethanol plant. We expect that that will be something we will very, very seriously be considering. We are not announcing we are doing that yet, because we are waiting for the GREET model from the Department of Energy so we can do our final calculations.

Amit Dayal

Understood. Maybe just last one for me. I know you have not provided any formal guidance for 2026, cash flow, EBITDA, etcetera. But at a minimum, can we expect you to perform in line with sort of the cash flows we saw materialize in 2025?

Eric McAfee

We should be significantly in excess of 2025, which represented virtually no 45Z for the ethanol plant from a cash flow perspective, and minimal from our RNG. Our business is highly leveraged towards performance of the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit, which credit prices were $40 eight months ago. They are $70 today and should continue to rise. The cap is $268. And the 45Z production tax credit, which we have only monetized $5 million of, we did that the last couple days of the fourth quarter of last year. And that should be a significant generator. When the updated GREET model is released by the Department of Energy, as we know, we have the February 4, 2026 U.S. Treasury guidance that was issued that was consistent with the One Big Beautiful Bill of July 2025. But we are awaiting the spreadsheet to show up on the website of the Department of Energy. From that, we will then be able to calculate with great precision actually what our total revenues are, and I think there will be an education cycle, which we will do with investors, to let them know what the dairy RNG molecule can do. I would cite Bloomberg's podcast. You do not have to be a Bloomberg subscriber in order to get this podcast, but they did a half-hour podcast just a few days ago and described that dairy RNG and swine RNG are the big winners under 45Z, and that there should be $7 per gallon of revenue for dairy RNG from the 45Z. There are 8.6 gallons under the 45Z regulation in every MMBtu. So a million British thermal units is 8.6 gallons under the rule, and each gallon should be $7. And there is a Bloomberg podcast if you want to learn about the value chain and how the calculation works, etcetera. That is available for public consumption.

Amit Dayal

I will take a look at that, Eric. Thank you. With respect to the India operations, will investors just have to learn to live with this start-stop situation over there? I know it is more sort of policy than your production capabilities. But is something going to change on that front, or is this how that market continues to operate?

Eric McAfee

Well, historically, the ethanol market operated that way until the government committed themselves to growth and then they went from a 1% blend to 20% straight-line in about 48 months. The biodiesel market is in a similar spot. The Russians and the Iranians have been selling heavily discounted crude oil into India. And about a month ago, the end of the 50% tariff that Mr. Trump imposed was an agreement by India not to import Russian oil and essentially indirectly fund the Ukrainian war with Indian money. And then, of course, the breakout of the Iranian war two weeks ago shut off the other cheap funnel of crude oil, which was in violation of the U.S. sanctions, but Indians have been doing it very commonly. Well, that ended two weeks ago. So India does not have any domestic petroleum, natural gas, or even coal of any meaningful amount. So they have just had their two great opportunities in the world, which is to buy cheap petroleum and remain dependent upon petroleum, disappear, and the biofuels is a domestically produced job-creating agricultural economy-based industry. And that is why ethanol has gone from 1% to 20%, and we believe that biodiesel will have the similar kind of rise. Half a percent to 5% is a 10x expansion in the biodiesel business. Our IPO is not based upon solely being a biodiesel producer. It is also about the future energy in India which includes compressed biogas, which we would call in the U.S. renewable natural gas. In India, it is known as CBG, as well as sustainable aviation fuel, which is a very popular item in India right now. The global sustainable aviation fuel market spent about 90 billion gallons, and flying in and out of Asia includes fueling up to meet European and other requirements, including the Singapore airport. So the business we are taking public in India is a global diversified biofuels IPO. We believe it will be the first global diversified biofuels IPO in the history of the India stock market. It happens to have as a centerpiece an 80 million gallon biodiesel plant that is well positioned to become a sustainable aviation fuel plant. And those contracts would be with international airlines and, to a certain extent, circumvents this issue about the domestic demand for biodiesel in the country. Though we do have bullishness around that demand and do plan to have expansion in the biodiesel assets and production capacity we have in India.

Amit Dayal

Thank you, Eric. That is all I have. Appreciate it.

Eric McAfee

Thanks, Amit.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from David Joseph Storms with Stonegate. Your line is live.

David Joseph Storms

Morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Just wanted to start with the Keyes plant. It looks like it has been running at about 90% capacity for the last two years. How comfortable are you with the current run-rate? And is there any potential plans to expand it once you are through the MVR Project?

Eric McAfee

We have an industry that, with the adoption of E15 in California, already had about 600 million gallons of new market open up from an approval perspective. And nationally, I think there will be an E15 adoption, certainly with the Iranian war. That is a top-of-mind affordability move. So I do expect nationally that ethanol plants will be looking at expansion as a strategic goal as we go from roughly 14 billion gallons of actual consumption in the U.S. to over 20 billion gallons with the approval of E15. There is probably a billion to a billion and a half gallons of available capacity just by debottlenecking and the like. But that is far short of the 6 billion gallons needed. And we currently have record exports of over 2 billion gallons a year, and those record exports could actually rise with continued adoption of ethanol blending worldwide, which puts a further strangulation on the number of available gallons for domestic. But we have not announced an expansion campaign yet. I would note that there is a plant that just announced today that they expanded from roughly 55 million gallons to 105 million gallons by using existing tankage and doing certain process improvements. So there is certainly technology available, and we do plan to expand our business. We are currently expanding it by reducing our carbon intensity, reducing our operating costs, and optimizing the carbon. And, frankly, mechanical vapor compression will allow us to be positioned for that kind of debottlenecking and expansion. So I would expect this is going to be more of a 2027 story. We might talk about it later on this year, but, frankly, the margin improvement and sustainable positive cash flow from our existing asset is what we are focusing on right now. And I think we are going to be looking to have optimized that by the end of this year and then focus on expansion plans.

David Joseph Storms

That is great color. Thank you. And then just one more for me. You have got some tailwinds coming out of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and I think it was even mentioned in your release that those tailwinds are starting to be implemented. Just curious as to how you see the logistics in the near term for the continued implementation of those tailwinds and maybe any more color you could give us there?

Eric McAfee

The big lift was July 4, 2025. In the Senate, House, and the White House when they negotiated a doubling of the number of years and a significant expansion in the amount of 45Z production value that biofuels would obtain, specifically removing indirect land use change penalty, which had depressed the amount that had been available. That was completely removed. We are now in the implementation phase of that political decision by the President, frankly, and also both the House and the Senate. And the first step of that adoption is the Treasury's announcement on February 4, 2026 of 176 pages of tax guidance. There were no surprises in there, and we are now just awaiting the spreadsheet known as the GREET model from the Department of Energy, which will allow us to calculate the amount of 45Z revenue that we generate from every MMBtu or every ethanol gallon. And I should make note that there is a process that was set up January 2025 called the provisional emissions rate. That was further refined in the February 4 guidance with what is called a Calculated Emissions Value Letter. And so the process of getting our own distinct additional value because we have done energy conservation and other enhancements in our facilities, that process of getting a CEVL was set up last month. And so we are actively seeking CEVLs that would allow us to have accurate calculations of both our ethanol as well as our dairy RNG business carbon intensity, but it is they call emissions rate. And so the adoption should be that the GREET model gets published this month by the DOE, and that in a very short period of time thereafter, a matter of weeks, we should get a Calculated Emissions Value Letter because we just have a couple of little cells that need to be entered with our unique data, and the number that comes out gets put on a piece of paper and issued to us. And then, with no real work at all, we file that with tax returns. So it is a very simple process. Should be a very quick process. But the word “should,” unfortunately, is where the uncertainty comes in. We are waiting for the DOE to issue the GREET model, and we are waiting for the DOE to open up the Calculated Emissions Value Letter process so that we can get very accurate calculations.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Edward Moon Woo of Ascendiant Capital. Your line is live.

Edward Moon Woo

Yeah. Thank you, and congratulations on all the progress. As you talk about being the first global bioenergy company in the India market, have you considered expanding to other markets? And also, what is your expansion opportunities in India? Would you consider possibly a second plant?

Eric McAfee

Let us take India first because that is where we are actually implementing right now. We are definitely planning to locate plants near feedstock sources. And we have a special relationship with the leading feedstock supplier in the tallow business, for example, and so we do expect to have multiple plants located near feedstock sources. That gives us the advantage both on cost inputs, but also, frankly, puts us closer to the blending facilities that are also regional. But our India business is diversifying into biogas and then into one of our facilities making into sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel plant. And so our IPO in India is driving the adoption of new markets. Quite frankly, the Indians are not currently involved with, including sustainable aviation fuel, and there is a lot of excitement about getting independence from imported crude oil in India. So we are in the middle of that process. And then the reason why it is global is our India business, the subsidiary, 100% owned by our company, will be making investments outside of India as part of the IPO. So we are looking forward to more information being disseminated to the market. As we put out our, what is known as, Red Herring and other documents, you will be able to read more about that.

Edward Moon Woo

Great. That sounds exciting. Wish you guys good luck. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. As we have reached the end of our question and answer session, I will now turn the call to management for closing remarks.

Eric McAfee

Thank you to Aemetis, Inc. stockholders, stock analysts, and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis, Inc.

Operator

Thank you for attending today’s Aemetis, Inc. earnings conference call. Please visit the Investors section of the Aemetis, Inc. website where we will post a written version and an audio version of this Aemetis, Inc. earnings review and business update. Ollie? Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s call, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.

As of 2026-05-18 • Updated weeklySource: Earnings sourceIngestion runbook