RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

AMSF

AMERISAFEA
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Premium growth, strong retention, high reported ROE, and favorable reserve development support the case for durable niche underwriting economics. Management continues to emphasize disciplined pricing and capital management.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
What can break
Analyst coverage, revision history, social data, and insider-activity evidence are limited or unavailable.
Momentum
8
Value
59
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $33.00 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $26.00Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.67
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d -0.7
Value59 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst coverage, revision history, social data, and insider-activity evidence are limited or unavailable.
  • • Competitive pricing conditions could constrain profitable premium growth.
  • • The post-print signal is unfavorable: third-party coverage reported Q2 EPS of $0.44 versus a $0.52 consensus estimate, while operating earnings declined and the combined ratio deteriorated.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-24

Post-earnings margin pressure

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
+1.8
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+9.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 7.9 / Value 58.7 / Sentiment 84.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$489.54M
Beta
0.36
Shares Out
18.54M
P/E (TTM)
14.7
P/S (TTM)
2.38
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.73
Rev YoY
+13.4%
EPS YoY
+6.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+17.5%
Net Debt
-$61.44M
Current Ratio
0.64
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data