B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
+31.6% vs current
AMSF
AMERISAFECNasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
At close
2026-07-22
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
+12.4% vs current
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
-13.3% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-22
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+28.5
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+28.5
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+53.8
Score
AI commentary
News tone is mixed: strong premium growth and capital returns contrast with weaker operating profitability and underwriting metrics. The live quote snapshot showed approximately a 2.4% decline on July 22 after the release. Social coverage, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and analyst revision detail are unavailable; confidence remains moderate and the setup is monitoring-oriented.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-22
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-10-20eventQuarterly dividend maintainedMedium impact
The board declared a $0.41 quarterly dividend payable September 25, 2026; the company also repurchased $5.6 million of stock during Q2. [#8-K-2026-07-21]
2026-10-20catalystPost-print underwriting pressureMedium impact
Q2 net premiums earned rose 11.4%, but operating EPS fell 17.0%, underwriting profit declined 37.9%, and the combined ratio worsened to 95.4% from 91.7%. Favorable reserve development also moderated year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
2027-07-22catalystSustained specialty-insurance growthHigh impact
Management reported a ninth consecutive quarter of top-line growth, supported by renewal retention, while emphasizing underwriting discipline and capital management. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-22 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology