B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMSF
AMERISAFEANasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-24
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+24.8
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+24.8
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+98.9
Score
AI commentary
The earnings follow-up has mixed fundamentals but a negative quality-of-earnings tilt: premium growth was strong, while operating EPS and underwriting profit declined. Reported third-party consensus data indicates an EPS miss, and the post-print price signal was negative. Analyst target and revision evidence remains thin, so missing revisions should not be treated as positive evidence. The deterministic prior is negative over 5-, 20-, 60-, and 120-day horizons.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-24
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-24catalystPost-earnings margin pressureMedium impact
Q2 net premiums earned grew 11.4%, but operating EPS fell 17.0% year over year and the net combined ratio worsened to 95.4% from 91.7%; the release also cited $7.3 million of favorable prior-year reserve development. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21] [#8-K-2026-07-21]
2026-10-22eventNext quarterly underwriting updateMedium impact
The next report should clarify whether premium growth can persist while current accident-year loss and expense ratios remain elevated. Forward guidance and analyst revision data are limited for this low-coverage issuer.
2027-07-24catalystNiche workers’ compensation growth platformHigh impact
Management reported a ninth consecutive quarter of top-line growth and reiterated underwriting discipline, pricing focus, and capital management as long-term value drivers. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21] [#10-Q-2026-07-23]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-24 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology