AMSF

AMERISAFEC

Nasdaq / Insurance

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$29.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$24.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$19.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-10-01

AI commentary

The August 20 Zacks article reported that shares had fallen about 16% since the Q2 earnings release and described downward estimate revisions. That dated reaction is not a verified September 30-to-October 1 price move. The packet provides no sufficient social, options, short-interest, or employee-score coverage; the zero fields above denote unavailable measurements, not neutral observations. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-amerisafe-amsf-down-16-153003038.html

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-01

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-12-31eventUnderwriting-margin and reserve-development testMedium impact

Q2 net premiums earned rose 11.4%, but the combined ratio worsened to 95.4% from 91.7% and pre-tax underwriting profit fell 37.9%. The current accident-year loss ratio rose to 72.0%, while favorable prior-year reserve development was smaller than a year earlier. Whether those pressures persist is the key earnings test; the date is a monitoring horizon, not an announced event date. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018979/000119312526310328/d122285dex991.htm

2027-03-31catalystPremium growth converting into operating earningsHigh impact

Management reported a ninth consecutive quarter of top-line growth, supported by renewal retention, but Q2 operating EPS fell to $0.44 from $0.53. Sustained premium growth would matter more if loss and expense ratios stabilize; no forward target was supplied. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018979/000119312526310328/d122285dex991.htm

2027-03-31catalystCapital returns versus investment-income dragMedium impact

AMERISAFE paid a $0.41 quarterly dividend and repurchased $5.6 million of shares in Q2. The company also attributed a 2.4% decline in investment income partly to lower investable assets following capital returns. Future distributions must be weighed against that earnings trade-off; none is assumed beyond announced actions. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018979/000119312526310328/d122285dex991.htm

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-10-01 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology